The 10-year auction went fine. $39B at 5.30% and more demand than last month. Kinda tells you 5% plus is enough to pull buyers in even with the Fed still talking hikes, which is why I don't see mortgages getting much relief anytime soon.

Single stock options are actually shrinking now. OCC's September numbers have equity options down 13.9% on the year while ETF options grew 37.9%. In August the single stock side was at least still growing. Kinda feels like nobody's in the mood to be wrong about one company. Curious if that flips once earnings season's going.

WHAT BURRY'S BETTING AGAINST 🐻👇 $MU | Jun 2027 puts $NVDA | Sep 2027 puts $PLTR | Sep 2027 puts $NBIS | Jun 2027 puts $ORCL | Dec 2027 puts $CAT | Dec 2027 puts $SOXX | Sep 2027 puts What he's buying | $QXO $BBW $SFM $BIRK $MELI He swapped his shorts for puts dated a year out. Which one's he right on?

You need to realize that there is almost no competition right now. More and more people are drawn to escapism. Dopamine traps such as TikTok and Reels have effectively fried about 70% of humans. Attention spans decrease; ambitions drown. You have no competition. In a few years, you will be able to see a clear elite.

Payrolls basically stalled and the 10-year still went up. Treasury has it closing at 5.28% the day the jobs number missed, higher than the day before, while October hike odds fell apart. Kinda tells you the long end isn't taking its cue from the Fed right now. $RKT and the rest of the mortgage lenders price off that number, not off Warsh. Not sure what it's trading on instead.

THE WEEK THAT DECIDES IF THE FED IS DONE 📅👇 Mon | ISM services Tue | $MRVL investor day, 3-year auction Wed | Fed minutes, 10-year auction, $APLD $LEVI Thu | $PEP, 30-year auction Fri | $DAL The 10-year closed Friday at 5.28%. Which one's gonna move it?

The NIL clearinghouse just had its biggest two months ever and it's still saying no to the big ones. Since launch, the denied deals average more than 5x the approved ones. Meanwhile schools can already share up to $21.58 million a year with athletes directly. Not sure how much of the denied money is just pay trying to come in the side door.

September payrolls came in at 29,000 against 90,000 expected, and unemployment's at 4.2%. October hike odds are sitting at 14% on Polymarket after the print. First real reason all month for them to wait.

OIL, GOLD AND THE FED AFTER PCE 🛢️👇 WTI | $90.44 Gold | $4,156 Silver | $60.34 October hike odds | 34% Core PCE | 3.0% in August Everything on this list is really trading one question, whether the Fed hikes again in October. Where's WTI by Friday? 👀

WHO'S PAYING THE MOST TO BORROW FOR 10 YEARS 🌍👇 🇬🇧 UK | 5.38% 🇦🇺 Australia | 5.37% 🇺🇸 US | 5.26%, highest since 2007 🇫🇷 France | 4.76% 🇮🇹 Italy | 4.59% 🇨🇦 Canada | 3.97% 🇩🇪 Germany | 3.59% 🇯🇵 Japan | 3.09%, highest since 1996 The US isn't even at the top of the list. Kinda makes you wonder how much of this selloff is a global thing. Which one breaks first? 👀

Mortgages went the wrong way again and nobody's cutting anything. Freddie Mac has the 30-year at 7.03%, up from 6.30% this time last year. Kinda funny, the hike got all the attention while mortgages mostly take their cue from the 10-year. $LEN and $DHI sell houses into that number every week. Not sure what the buyer's supposed to wait for now.

Options volume keeps climbing and almost none of the growth is in actual companies. OCC's August numbers have single stock options up 1.9% on the year while ETF options grew 35%. Kinda tells you the new money's happier trading the basket. Not sure what that does to price discovery on the names underneath.

WHO'S ACTUALLY BUYING TREASURIES 🇺🇸👇 Foreign governments | Japan down $51B in a year 🔴 The Fed | $4.55T, runoff over 🟢 $JPM $BAC | banks holding $1.8T 🟢 Hedge funds | $2T, mostly the basis trade 🟢 $GS $MS | dealers took 4% of the last 10 year 🔴 The interest bill just passed $1T a year. Somebody has to keep showing up. Who's the marginal buyer from here? 👀

$ICE went all in on prediction markets and barely anyone noticed. It committed up to $2 billion to Polymarket, finished it with $600 million in cash in March, and now distributes Polymarket's event data. Kinda tells you the exchanges read this as a product line. Not sure yet what the other exchanges do about it.

Memory prices are still climbing and the slope's already broken. Conventional DRAM contract prices rose 93 to 98% in the first quarter of this year. TrendForce has the third quarter at 13 to 18%. Kinda makes you wonder how much of the memory trade is still priced off the first number.

WHO GETS PAID ON A WEIGHT LOSS SHOT 💉👇 $LLY | $9.9B of Mounjaro in one quarter 🟢 $NVO | paid $16.5B for the plants 🟢 $WST | pen parts up 30% 🟢 $CVS | net price down 34% 🔴 $HIMS | copies cut off 🔴 Lilly vs Novo gets the argument. The pen gets paid either way. Which one do you own? 👀

$META's biggest data center sits on someone else's balance sheet. The Hyperion joint venture is $27 billion of investment grade bonds, Blue Owl funds own 80% of it, and Meta leases the thing back. Kinda tells you the capex line everyone models doesn't have this in it. Not sure yet how many of the other AI data centers are built the same way.

People keep arguing about whether AI is a bubble and skipping how big it's already gotten. The whole data center buildout runs 1.5% of US GDP. That category averaged 0.7% from 2015 to 2022. So a slice this small is carrying a real share of the growth rate. Kinda makes you wonder what that rate looks like if the spending stops.

So the Fed hiked into a labor market that still looks fine. 196,000 initial claims the week before the meeting, and the four week average sat at 203,250. Kinda tells you they had the room and used it. What I don't know yet is whether October gets the same read if claims start drifting up.

Treasury starts three days of note auctions this morning, six days after a hike. 2-year today, then 5s Wednesday and 7s Thursday, into a 10-year that closed Friday at 5.01%. Kinda tells you it's the belly that has to absorb the new dot plot. Three chances this week to find out who's still buying duration.