There are several important cross-market themes building this week. Essential not to chase price here, and wait for confirmation.
JPY is the clearest shift. After repeated intervention attempts failed to produce follow-through, this latest move looks different. USDJPY has broken lower, sellers remain in control, and the next COT release should help confirm whether positioning is finally turning behind the move.
Bitcoin remains constructive above 79k, but the breakout still lacks conviction. Commercial short covering helped drive the move, but speculative buying has not yet followed through in the way you would normally want to see after a clean breakout.
Gold remains short-biased inside the 4500–4300 range, with 4390 and 4330 the key levels now being watched.
The S&P 500 is still trapped between 7770 and 7625. September carries seasonal risk, but the report is clear: we need to see a confirmed break and watch volume before acting.
FX is also becoming more interesting. USDX remains under pressure, but sellers are starting to look exhausted . AUD is the strongest daily trend, although COT positioning is now showing unusual behavior, which is contributing to its recent strength.
This is the type of week where having a clear plan, and discipline matter.
#Trading #MarketAnalysis #SP500 #Bitcoin #Gold #JPY #USD #COT #Seasonality
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