Our mission is to provide sophisticated financial market analysis that is independent, accessible, and actionable for a broad public and private sector audience
Washington, DC
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First posting... why "Prosperity"? open.substack.com/pub/robert…
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Just released our interview with Stefan Rust, CEO of Truflation. Excellent recap of the shortcomings of CPI as a measure of inflation and a new, accurate way to measure debasement of fiat currencies and inflation.
piped.video/watch?v=eEVoUkKT…
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Join us at 2:30pmET Friday, Feb 23 for a deep dive into inflation data with Truflation CEO @srust99. Learn the shortcoming of BLS inflation indices like CPI, PPI, PCE, etc and how Truflation can correct them. Register here: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi…
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We hosted a webinar with @DariusDale42 yesterday. See his latest views with a deep dive into his process.
piped.video/watch?v=Cs3vahfG…
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Great session during an historic day in the anals of ETFs.
Just hosted X Spaces session with @Matt_Hougan and @matthew_sigel about #BitcoinETFs first day of trading. Copying @JSeyff who was stuck on a subway.
Takeaways:
Volumes are higher than what most expected
- Tough to know what % is current owners switching into ETFs as a new vehicle, but that is likely a large portion of demand.
- Buy/sell spreads were wide early today, as expected, but have narrowed through the day- necessary for the RIA market as brokers are sensitive to this form of fee.
- True demand won't be known for a while as very few buyers were likely to buy all at once.
- On chain fees were actually weaker than expected through the day and the mem pool was calm for most of the day, signaling the end of day posting of transactions by the APs and others.
- Expect continued demand after a very big volume day.
Bitcoin Mempool - The spike was 11-11:15am.
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What will be happening with #BitcoinETFs at 3pmET on Thursday???
Enthusiastic to be hosting @JSeyff and @Matt_Hougan
from Bitwise on an X Spaces session.
Will any ETFs be trading at a premium as some are predicting? Will Bitcoin be higher or lower?
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Markets Policy Partners retweeted
Catch our interview at piped.video/watch?v=19iU1dac… with @ramahluwalia for some great insights!
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Markets Policy Partners retweeted
Chatting with @macroleverageTP on non-consensus ideas, investment philosophy, Macro and micro at 1:30 PM ET today.
Register here to tune in & ask your questions:
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi…
I am co-hosting Ram Ahluwalia for a deep dive interview on Friday at 1:30pmET with Markets Policy Partners. DM me if you would like to listen in.
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We are hosting @ramahluwalia for a deep dive interview on Friday at 1:30pmET with Markets Policy Partners. DM us if you would like to listen in.
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It seems as though the markets now have too much holiday spirit to listen to the Fed Grinches this weekend, having been drinking deeply from the monetary punchbowl that Chair Powell just spiked.
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Markets Policy Partners retweeted
Ratio of Russell 2000 relative to S&P 500 has fallen to lowest since late 2001
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results]
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Fed messaging remains the driver of global risk markets while US data continues to cool. Q3 earnings season wraps up on a mixed note, while Japanese markets swing after BOJ decision and US government dysfunction persists. marketspolicy.com/five-minut…
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Top 5 drivers of financial markets this week:
1) Fedspeak, 2) economic data showing comfortable slowing, 3) Earnings mixed confirming #2, 4) BOJ starting to address the weak Yen, 5) House Speaker resolution has not improved US Govt disfunction.
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Markets Policy Partners retweeted
1/23 EU CBDC
In early October, I warned about a green light that the ECB might get to move to the next stage of testing towards the launch of an EU CBDC.
The ECB did get the green light on Oct 18 and the ECB is proceeding towards a potential launch in the next four years.
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Markets Policy Partners retweeted
Real personal income excluding government transfer payments rose to new all-time high in September
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This week’s Fed Meeting is front and center for global markets, while this will be a key week of corporate earnings. Oil prices continue to fluctuate around the Middle East and US economic data remains resilient and the US finally elects a Speaker. marketspolicy.com/five-minut…
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With markets down in the past two days, get insights from @jason_trennert who explains the headwinds that financial markets face in our long form interview from last week here: piped.video/watch?v=Z3YYVqob…
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Markets Policy Partners retweeted
Really loved our Markets Policy Partners webcast with @jason_trennert - piped.video/watch?v=Z3YYVqob…
After decades of easy monetary policy and heavy fiscal spending, the bill is coming due... The trigger? Interest rates; high rates create an actual current cost to the profligate monetary and fiscal policies of the last few decades.
Timeline:
03:43 The Most Important Slide- Interest on the Federal Debt
07:01 World War II and solving the US sovereign debt problem vs today
08:55 SVB and S&P500 took off for 2 reasons
10:59 SVB Response may have saved a recession
12:28 Deep dive into inflation drivers- 2% target seems too ambitious
17:15 Can the Fed declare victory without 2% CPI?
21:12 Resolve in Congress to reverse fiscal excess?
26:41 Key problem with high interest rates
34:11 Structural inflation and good trades
37:41 Inflation- Kryptonite for Stocks
42:51 Private capital markets vulnerable to high rates
48:35 Anti-Trust and unlocking value?
54:32 Geopolitical risks and the financial markets
57:13 US economy and markets and their resiliency in wars
60:49 Watch out for the CPI echo
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Engaging webcast with @jason_trennert about distortions from QE. Financial engineering was more rewarded than capital investment. Click here for full interview: piped.video/watch?v=Z3YYVqob… #inflation #FederalReserve
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