These aren’t real “odds.” The map is screaming at you something different, and a lot of people are misreading it.
The map and the numbers show that a larger share of individual traders are betting that Paxton wins. A smaller number of traders are betting on Talarico. Those fewer people are putting up enough money that the price still has Talarico at around 64%. The price is driven by the size of the bets, not by how many people are making them.
That gap is the point. More people are taking the Paxton side, but the price is being held up by a smaller group putting down larger amounts. The map also shows that the higher share of Talarico bets is concentrated in mostly blue states and non Texas traders, while Texans themselves are lower on him.
This is what it looks like when out of state money is pushing the price higher and then getting sold to people as “odds.” The map isn’t showing broad trader agreement that Talarico is the favorite. It’s showing that a smaller set of bigger bets, disproportionately from outside Texas, are what is setting the number.
Texans, please prove these odds wrong.
James Talarico does not represent Texas. He believes:
>God is "nonbinary"
>illegals are more patriotic than Americans
>Jesus and Mary supported abortion
>white skin is a virus
>transing children
It's insanity. Voters must reject this.