THIS CHART GOES BACK 100 YEARS… AND WE’VE ONLY BEEN HERE THREE TIMES BEFORE.
This is Oil vs the Dow Jones Industrial Average on yearly candles.
Basically, when this chart is this low, oil is historically cheap relative to US equities.
Now look at the previous major lows:
1929.
1966.
1999.
And now… 2026.
Those dates aren't exactly random.
Each of the previous periods occurred around major turning points for US equities and was followed by a very difficult long-term period for stocks, alongside major rotations between asset classes. Equties had dead money for over a decade.
Now look at the technicals.
The yearly RSI is sitting around 40, an area that has historically acted as support for this ratio.
Then look at Stochastic RSI.
The previous major oversold extremes on this chart occurred around 1929, 1966 and 1999.
And now we're back there again.
But here's where things get really interesting.
Look at the small chart I've added in the top right.
That's the fundamental side of the equation.
It combines a range of US equity valuation measures including trailing P/E, forward P/E, CAPE, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, Tobin's Q and market cap-to-GDP.
And what periods jump out as major valuation extremes?
1929.
1966.
1999.
And the current period.
So we've got two completely different ways of looking at the market telling a very similar story.
The technical chart is telling us energy is historically cheap relative to equities.
The fundamental data is telling us US equities are historically expensive.
Coincidence?
Maybe.
But this is exactly why I love combining technicals, fundamentals and macro rather than looking at any one thing in isolation.
Does this mean US equities crash tomorrow?
No.
Does it mean oil goes straight up from here?
No.
This is a big-picture macro chart. I'm not looking at what happens next week. I'm looking at where capital could rotate over the next 5 to 10 years.
And when I keep seeing the same message across oil, commodities, bonds, valuations and relative-strength charts like this, I'm paying attention.
It's also one of the major reasons I'm personally very cautious about US equities at these valuations and far more interested in the opportunities developing across energy and commodities.
1929. 1966. 1999. 2026.
History doesn't have to repeat.
But when everything aligns it's rarely coincidence!