Investor, Author, Former Fintech Executive. Duke MBA. Financial Philosopher.
North Carolina
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Financial Fiction? Is there such a thing? My new book, QUOZ: A FINANCIAL THRILLER, comes out this week. It explores a world where the stock market is controlled by AI, central bankers conspire to take down the dollar as reserve currency, and the blockchain gets corrupted for global control. Publishers Weekly says, “Fintech executive Mattison puts his cryptocurrency expertise to good use in his chilling debut.”
#CentralBanks #bitcoin #cbdcs #ITWDebuts
To learn more, visit: melmattison.com/quoz
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Must watch TV here:
Max Blumenthal: I Went to Iran and Was Detained by the Trump Admin piped.video/zw5H0fFkj-k?is=OX45… via @YouTube
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The dynamic below means stocks and bonds are positively correlated here on out. 60/40, all target date funds are now idiotic. Only gold and BTC offer good diversification. If you’re 40, you should be something like 50/50, equities/PMs, crypto.
20-yr closed around 5.5% today. Boomers will start buying bonds at these levels. Imagine you are 70 with a couple mill, mostly in equities and getting $5k/month in SS (w/ wife’s SS). You can put that $2 mil in USTs and get $110k/yr. Plus your $60k/yr in SS is $170k/yr. That’s over $14k/month. Plus, your home is paid off and your healthcare is now free (Medicare). Yeah, if that’s me, I’m selling stocks and buying bonds. Yields are peaking. Not getting ready to explode higher.
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20-yr closed around 5.5% today. Boomers will start buying bonds at these levels. Imagine you are 70 with a couple mill, mostly in equities and getting $5k/month in SS (w/ wife’s SS). You can put that $2 mil in USTs and get $110k/yr. Plus your $60k/yr in SS is $170k/yr. That’s over $14k/month. Plus, your home is paid off and your healthcare is now free (Medicare). Yeah, if that’s me, I’m selling stocks and buying bonds. Yields are peaking. Not getting ready to explode higher.
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Every instinct I have is telling me today was a break below and fail on bond prices and a small pullback before a big break to much higher new ATHs on the QQQs. Why? The sentiment is too much against the thesis above.
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Trump’s attempt to out-pageant Xi starts in two hours. Let the meaningless dick-measuring contest between two frail, old and yet very powerful men begin.
I just bought a pair of socks that I’ll be wearing long after those two are six feet under. Fuck ‘em.
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Finally has a clear break of 2023 high yields. Stop hunting by the likes of Citadel and Jane St complete. Let the bond rally begin.
Medium-term bottom on bonds today. Buying TLT calls. We needed to break above the 5.03% yield on the 10-year to shake out the weak hands. Millions in sell orders sat just beyond that. All were triggered today. Big players will now start buying. Bonds rally from here.
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Medium-term bottom on bonds today. Buying TLT calls. We needed to break above the 5.03% yield on the 10-year to shake out the weak hands. Millions in sell orders sat just beyond that. All were triggered today. Big players will now start buying. Bonds rally from here.
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Note: 15% allocation to BiL (T-Bills) is cash made available to deploy should markets drop over 5%. The 4 individual names can be switched out as appropriate (Hood, EWz, Bsba, DHi).
Mel’s Diner up over 1% since implementing yesterday.
15%-GLD
5%-SLV
5%-IBIT
3%-ETHA
2%-BSOL
10%-QQQ
5%-SPY
5%-SOXX
12%-EEM
3%-EFA
15%-BIL
5%-HOOD
5%-EWZ
5%-BABA
5%-DHI
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Mel’s Diner up over 1% since implementing yesterday.
15%-GLD
5%-SLV
5%-IBIT
3%-ETHA
2%-BSOL
10%-QQQ
5%-SPY
5%-SOXX
12%-EEM
3%-EFA
15%-BIL
5%-HOOD
5%-EWZ
5%-BABA
5%-DHI
I had some folks asking about a portfolio for today’s market. So I put one together. Then, as an exercise, I took $10k and put it together and executed it in a new, separate account. My bet is it kills most plans. Video coming to explain. Will post actual performance.
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In place and executed. Call it Mel’s Diner. Let’s see how it does. Designed for normies. Set and forget for most part over next 12-24 months.
I had some folks asking about a portfolio for today’s market. So I put one together. Then, as an exercise, I took $10k and put it together and executed it in a new, separate account. My bet is it kills most plans. Video coming to explain. Will post actual performance.
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I had some folks asking about a portfolio for today’s market. So I put one together. Then, as an exercise, I took $10k and put it together and executed it in a new, separate account. My bet is it kills most plans. Video coming to explain. Will post actual performance.
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Rates fully priced in the hike by the close yesterday. Rates are not lower today b/c Warsh hiked and established “credibility.” They are tracking oil lower on possible work around for East-West pipeline. Time to move on from the Fed until the next meeting.
It’s interesting to speculate on decision today, but honestly, whatever they do will be meaningless for inflation, yields, oil, dollar & equities by the time markets open on Friday. In a fiscal dominance world, Warsh is simply the man behind the curtain.
share.google/FiBnAjGdwYiTd6M…
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What’s really going to get people thinking is when gold starts to rally with the dollar and rates rising. Algos drove gold lower today. But astute market watchers will begin to realize that YCC is just starting to ramp up. Bessent will be increasing buybacks soon.
Surprise, surprise, yields pop across the curve on a hike. No kidding. The dots add over $100 billion to deficit between now and end of next year.
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The mistake is believing a higher Fed Funds will reduce PCE. It will drive it higher via increased borrowing costs for gov’t/consumers and lower home/auto affordability as well as adding billions in spending power to Boomers via money market rates.
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A popular narrative is the Fed will make a mistake by hiking into a supply shock ("The Fed cannot print oil!")
Wrong metric!
Core PCE has run above 2% for 65 months.
This suggests something bigger is happening and focusing on near-term oil/diesel spikes misses it.
🧵
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The Fed and pundits are still not ready to accept the fact that hiking rates stokes inflation and raises the deficit which in turn raises long end, but the market will eventually educate them. Lessons started today.
Not long ago, it was smart to realize that cutting rates on short end made the long end rise. Well now, raising rates will also make the long end rise as it will increase deficit. Only way to decrease deficit it to cut the short end low and stop issuing at the long end.
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Mel Mattison retweeted
Fed hike = the Fed is trying to tighten financial conditions by giving more interest income to the upper leg of the "K" (Boomers) while simultaneously increasing US govt deficits (via higher interest expense).
That's like screwing to try to get your virginity back.
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Surprise, surprise, yields pop across the curve on a hike. No kidding. The dots add over $100 billion to deficit between now and end of next year.
Not long ago, it was smart to realize that cutting rates on short end made the long end rise. Well now, raising rates will also make the long end rise as it will increase deficit. Only way to decrease deficit it to cut the short end low and stop issuing at the long end.
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It’s interesting to speculate on decision today, but honestly, whatever they do will be meaningless for inflation, yields, oil, dollar & equities by the time markets open on Friday. In a fiscal dominance world, Warsh is simply the man behind the curtain.
share.google/FiBnAjGdwYiTd6M…
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It’s true. Hikes before GFC and after Covid made sense because housing was overheating the economy. Hiking here will only raise US borrowing costs (deficit) and reduce housing & auto affordability as long-end rises reflecting hike-induced inflation/deficit growth. Bizzaro world.
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It’s called gold revaluation. You should know about that @PeterSchiff. As he testified, the Treasury has been working on its plan for quite awhile now.
Bessent doesn't know that the U.S. Constitution leaves the power of the purse to Congress. He also claims $5k "dividends" can be sent to every adult American without any impact on the budget. Republicans must call for his resignation as Treasury Secretary.
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