DraftKings King of the End Zone Bonus Bet Projections 👑💰
These bonus bets do not factor in poll results, but I do shed some light on it in this post. If you think a guy will be over/underplayed, you can adjust accordingly.
WR — Olave and London are the two likeliest players in the game and both are under-owned so far (1.23x and 1.86x based on poll results). However, I imagine these two will be very popular with the casual bettors. I know you guys love taking risks, so these guys are probably under represented in the poll.
Devaughn Vele is the Jameson Williams of this slate — 12.9% poll ownership on a player who doesn't profile anywhere near that likely. Zachariah Branch is worse per unit at 0.37x.
RB — 22% win probability as a group but only 12.6% of the poll, so running backs are underplayed at 1.75x. Bijan is the game's most likely scorer (67.7% anytime) and there's still some value on him for this promotion. Brian Robinson (1.97x) and CJ Donaldson (2.76x) great long shot value.
D/ST — 20.9% of the win probability, 7.5% of the poll. The most underplayed position on the board at 2.78x. But a caution: every defense I've logged this season paid well under projection — Bills 0.35x, Lions 0.36x, Eagles 0.22x, Bears 0.43x, four for four. Expect their real ownership to be far above 7.5%.
TE — 13.1% of win probability, 23.5% of the poll. Most overplayed position at 0.56x. Nine tight ends splitting the smallest bucket. Fant 0.47x, Hooper 0.50x, Pitts 0.58x, Juwan Johnson 0.64x, and Nick Muse at 0.23x is the single worst value on the slate. Woerner 0.34x. I'd cut these long shot TE's projections in half, at least.
QB — Shough at 1.80x is decent value, Penix at 0.77x isn't. Same as Goff and Keenum the last two weeks: nobody should be taking a QB like Penix for the longest TD.