@Fox5DC Evening Meteorologist. Forecast & Graphics Production lead. Former forecasting expert @CommodityWX. DeMatha & Penn State Alumni
Washington, DC
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Wave of low pressure is expected to "detach" from its associated cold front on Wednesday. It may interact with the Gulf Stream enough that it may become tropical in nature...perhaps a tropical depression or storm.
Regardless, it is expected to move away from the East Coast.
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Severe thunderstorm watch has been dropped early from the DC area, but still some gusty showers working their way across the area as we speak. Pockets of heavy rain and occasional lightning. Winds still gusting 30-40+ mph as the front comes through.
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Quite the temperature swing expected between this afternoon and Sunday morning here in DC....from 80s to 30s!
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Just within the last hour a nice line of heavier showers & storms has develop just west of DC. Expected to move across in the next hour or two. Even once it's through though, showers are expected to develop and linger into Saturday morning as the cold front gets hung up a bit.
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AIFS with the never ending nor'easter next week in the coastal Mid-Atlantic😅
The loop is just about a week long...
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Severe thunderstorm watch issued for the DC region until 8pm tonight.
Latest HRRR guidance has a healthy line of storms around the I-95 corridor in the 6-8pm window tonight. ⛈️
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NOAA’s winter forecast showing the storm track you want for big snow potential in the East this winter…
…but will we get cold to link up with it? Or will mild temperatures (which they favor) keep storms mostly rain here?
Our winter outlook is coming soon. But I think it’s very much a low floor, highs ceiling for snowfall this winter. That’s to say well either get a LOT from one or two storms…or not much at all.
More soon…
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Tomorrow...DC's average high temperature falls below 70°F where it will remain until April 19th, 2027. We're just two months away from seeing average highs drop into the 40s here in Washington!
Sweater weather season is officially upon us.
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A very different day coming up Thursday compared to the 90°F day today. We'll set our daily high temperature after midnight tonight...but then temps should fall right through tomorrow afternoon. Some early sun looks possible, but clouds & scattered showers likely later in the day
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DC breaks a record that has stood for over a century, as DCA officially records 90°F for a high today.
That is the latest 90°F on record...surpassing October 11th, 1919!
Incredible!
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Not numbers you might expect in the middle of October...
Standing records:
DCA - 87°F (1975)
IAD - 86°F (1975)
BWI - 86°F (1975)
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Bit of a cool start to the week here in DC today...but we'll change that around quick!
Miss the 80s? Well, they're back over the next couple days! In fact, 87°F would tie a record high for DC set back in 1975. If we happen to hit 90°F, it would be DC's latest 90°F day on record!
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Morning guidance (HRRR shown) still showing a similar look to yesterday around the DC region...
1) Scattered light showers this evening, mostly in our southern zones.
2) Steadier rains start moving in later tonight. 7-11pm in our mountain zones to the west, DC in the 10pm-2am window.
3) Heaviest around DC in the 4am-10am window. Still looks like steadiest rains get out of here before Commanders kick off but I wouldn't say the game looks completely dry.
4) Lunchtime Sunday - Monday morning: Steadiest rains move northward but scattered showers will remain in an unsettled and humid environment. Localized heavy showers with a few embedded thunderstorms, with an isolated tornado threat.
5) SPC has DC region at a lower end (2-5%) risk with areas to our southeast a bit higher (5-10%) for the tornado risk. In the loop shown, it's the secondary line that fires after the main wave rain (in the 4pm-12am time window) that would have the tornado threat with it.
6) Clearing expected with more sunshine by Monday afternoon. 1-3" of rain expected with localized 3-5" amounts possible in heaviest bands. Gusts 30-40mph as possible as the system passes through.
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