Professor Tombe raises three things.
Take all three at full value and the answer does not change.
1. Federal debt interest.
It is already in the paper. Forward to Freedom carries C$6.2 billion a year — the Library of Parliament's full population-share attribution, which we treat as the ceiling, not the midpoint.
It is one of four shocks in the adverse test, and the balance survives it.
This article says so two paragraphs before it says the surplus doesn't include it.
2. Defence at the NATO target.
Our mature force is C$5.0 billion, about 1.05 per cent of output — the cost of a described force, not a target.
If Alberta joined NATO and met 2 per cent, that is roughly C$9.6 billion, about C$4.6 billion more.
3. Pensions.
We ring-fence retirement income in an Alberta Pension Plan rather than running it through general revenue. That is a stated modelling choice, disclosed on the page, and Section 6 tests whether the plan carries the book as the population ages.
Bring it back onto general revenue and it is about C$5.1 billion.
But then note that the Alberta Pension Plan - without those disbursements - would be significantly overfunded and would likely cut contribution requirements.
Almost like a tax cut under a different name.
Now add all three: C$6.2 + C$4.6 + C$5.1 = C$15.9 billion.
Against a starting balance of C$22.2 to C$32.1 billion, that leaves C$6 to C$16 billion a year — still a surplus.
That is the point.
Every objection in this article can be granted in full, and Alberta still pays its way.
The workbook is published; anyone can redo that subtraction in a spreadsheet.
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