‘Golden arches theory’ is still not aging well, as this McDonalds warehouse burns in Ukraine after a Russian attack.
Let’s talk about this.
Thomas Friedman came up with the Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention in the 90s, arguing that countries with McDonalds don’t fight each other.
More broadly, he argued countries that are economically integrated and codependent won’t go to war, hence the world needs more “McDonalds countries”.
It’s basically a rebranded version of arguments in the 1910s that proved so disastrously wrong before the First World War.
The theory looked prophetic in the 90s only because McDonalds was slowly expanding into countries already stable. The real cause and effect was inverse to the theory.
Friedman’s book on Golden Arches theory was released with darkly comic timing, just after ethnic violence in McDonalds-loving Yugoslavia prompted a military invention by McDonalds-loving NATO countries.
Nevertheless, the theory continued to take hold, especially in thinking around Russia and the West - and from both sides.
Ok, now here’s the really important bit that got missed.
Western and Russian thinking around Golden Arches theory had each taken the exact opposite lessons.
The West thought economic integration restrained aggression, while Russia thought economic integration restrained any response to its aggression.
That’s clear from listening to strategic thinking and commentary on the Russian side from the 90s.
They also saw “McDonalds countries” as Friedman called them, even if they didn’t call them that, but they just interpreted that relationship as weakness that could be exploited.
The lack of a stronger international response to each escalation of Russian aggression, such as after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, and all that nonsense about resetting the relationship just reinforced its perception that it could keep escalating more.
Russia escalates its aggression where it senses weakness. The connections and friendship you try to build with it - like “Russia is not my enemy”, blah blah - can make you a bigger target for that aggression.
The only real deterrence is to always stand firm on your values and be prepared to defend them no matter what.
Natalka