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Wall Township, NJ
The 10 most hostile College Football environments I expect in Week 5. What would you change?
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If USC were to part ways with Lincoln Riley, they’d face a ~$70M buyout. Scenario: USC finishes 9-3 with wins at Penn State in the Whiteout and over Ohio State, but losses to Indiana and UCLA. Is Riley back in 2027?
Lincoln Riley says this is the "most complete roster we've had here at USC." The Trojans return 15 starters and have the #1 recruiting class, but play 5 of the top 6 teams in the Big Ten title odds. If USC goes 9-3 and misses the CFP, should Riley return in 2027?
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Moore CFB doesn't run a sportsbook, but I think the wrong team is favored in Kentucky-South Carolina. Don't believe the computers are accounting for the current state of South Carolina football. LaNorris Sellers hasn't played well. Dylan Stewart is suspended. Shane Beamer's seat is scorching. The wheels are coming off in Columbia. South Carolina is heading in the wrong direction... Will Stein and Kentucky are heading in the right one. Give me the Wildcats.
🚨 Week 5 UPSET ALERTS 🚨 The LFTG Performance Index has pinpointed four underdogs whose stats suggest they can do more than cover the spread; they might win outright! 🐶 Fresno State +2.5 at Washington State The strongest upset call on the board. The Model gives Fresno State a 72.4% chance to win and projects the Bulldogs as 8.3-point favorites—a 10.8-point gap from the betting market. Fresno has consistently won the turnover and field-position battles, while Washington State enters with a minus-four turnover margin and ranks 94th in net efficiency. 🐻 Baylor +4 at Arizona State Another matchup where the market may have the wrong favorite. The Model gives Baylor a 52% chance to win outright and makes the Bears a slight favorite. Baylor ranks in the top 11 nationally in defensive points per drive and defensive points per play while allowing only 2.7 yards per carry. That defense gives the Bears a clear path to controlling the game. 🐅 🔵 Kentucky +2.5 at South Carolina Supported by momentum and matchup advantages, Kentucky has climbed 11 spots in the Weekly Power Ratings and owns a plus-three turnover margin. South Carolina is minus-four in turnover margin and ranks near the bottom nationally in defensive explosiveness and red-zone defense. If Kentucky limits big plays, the Wildcats can win this game outright. ⚫️🔴 Cincinnati +7 at Arizona The bigger underdog worth watching. The Model projects Arizona by only 2.3 points, creating nearly five points of value on Cincinnati. The unbeaten Bearcats rank 33rd in overall net efficiency and possess a balanced statistical profile on both sides of the ball. Which upset are you riding with this week? 👀 #CollegeFootball #CFB #UpsetAlert
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P4 Power Rankings - Week 5 Every team. All 4 Power conferences. Who would you move?
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How I rank them: This isn't a strict resume ranking, predictive model or "neutral-field" exercise. It's a blend of: • Eye test / how teams have actually looked • Results and quality of competition • How good I think each team is right now • Some projection of what I believe each team can be, with that factor decreasing each week as the sample size grows
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Moore College Football retweeted
Week 4 Recap & Reaction | Week 5 AP Poll Sucks | LFTG Poll Week 5 | Early Week 5 Thoughts nitter.net/i/broadcasts/1YGNrbyNl…
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Moore College Football retweeted
Week 5 LFTG Poll 📈📉 This is a neutral-field POWER RATING, not a ranking. Blame the computer. Who’s too high? Who’s too low? 👇 Presented by @Pypeline_ #CollegeFootball #CFB
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One of the biggest complaints about College GameDay: it primarily visits SEC campuses. I’ve always thought Big Noon should become the antithesis of GameDay. Zig when they zag. This week is the perfect opportunity. Could you imagine if, instead of going to Minnesota for Michigan-Minnesota, Big Noon went to Starkville for Alabama-Mississippi State and made it their first on-campus SEC show? Big Noon is essentially designed as a de facto Big Ten pregame show with the occasional Big 12 visit. Go national. ACC. G6. More Big 12. And yes, when GameDay goes to a Big Ten campus, go SEC. Put some pressure on ESPN.
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Glass-half-full outlook for Penn State after an ugly loss to Wisconsin: • All 8 remaining opponents already have at least one loss, and those teams are a combined 2-7 in B1G play • PSU’s defense is 9th nationally in both yards and points allowed per game, with 8 forced turnovers through 4 games • At a minimum, D’Anton Lynn’s defense should keep them in every game Glass-half-empty: • The offense still has no real identity. They haven’t consistently established the run, and what worked for Rocco Becht in non-conference play didn’t translate vs. Wisconsin • Koby Howard’s absence is a massive void for this offense, and there’s still no clear timetable for his return • The lack of a pass rush is a concern. Colton Joseph had far too much time Saturday, and the degree of difficulty only goes up with Aidan Chiles, Jayden Maiava and Bryce Underwood next on the schedule My takeaway: Penn State fans may need to recalibrate expectations in Year 1 of the Matt Campbell era. The path is absolutely there with this schedule. But after Saturday, there are too many issues to ignore.
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Well, we got our answer. Lincoln Riley had a chance for a defining win at USC. At home against Oregon. Ducks lose their starting QB. USC still loses. The noise around Riley didn’t get quieted tonight. It got amplified.
There might not be a game this week with more toxic downside for the loser than Oregon-USC. Oregon loses? They’re 2-2 in a national title-or-bust season and the Dan Lanning discourse goes nuclear. USC loses? Big Ten play starts with a struggle at Rutgers and a loss to a rival. In a season where the CFP is the expectation, the Lincoln Riley conversation will be deafening. Genuinely curious whether either coach could recover and salvage the season.
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Moore College Football retweeted
Shoutout to @Moore_CFB for calling this in his Tricky Spot feature!🔥🔥
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The honeymoon phase is over for Matt Campbell. Awful loss for Penn State. Wisconsin hadn’t won a road game in nearly two years. PSU’s 2nd-half possessions: INT FG Punt Punt Punt Punt Turnover on downs Rocco Becht: 114 passing yards, 1 INT and way too many balls knocked down at the line. Northwestern is licking its chops.
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Penn State-Wisconsin 1st half takeaway: College Football on Peacock should be illegal.
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Jeff Brohm. One of the sport’s best head coaches and a QB whisperer. But man… every year Louisville drops a game or two it just shouldn’t lose. Played Ole Miss to the wire. Big win over SMU last week. Very favorable schedule ahead. And now your CFP hopes are likely gone. Tremendous win for Wake Forest.
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UCLA 20 - Maryland 3 at half. Bob Chesney and Mike Locksley. Two head coaches heading in completely opposite directions.
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Can’t take my eyes off Virginia Tech-Boston College. Just nasty conditions. • VT/BC combined 1-15 on 3rd downs • 10 combined punts • 3-0 ballgame But how about John Love drilling a 45-yard FG right before the half!
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The Moore Watchlist | Week 4 10 things I’m watching in college football today 👇 1. Texas @ Tennessee: Can Texas stop the run without selling out? Tennessee has been mauling teams on the ground, averaging nearly 300 yards per game. Texas would love to stop it with its front seven and keep bodies back against Heupel’s vertical attack. If the Vols force extra help into the box, this gets really interesting. 2. Oregon @ USC: Been waiting on this one for months I said earlier this week the fallout for the losing coach is going to be toxic. Can Dante Moore and this Oregon offense get clicking? Gary Patterson’s defense looked rough against Rutgers. Was that exposure, or were the Trojans already spending time preparing for this Ducks offense? 3. Boise State @ Western Michigan: Who dictates the pace? Two teams completely comfortable living a few yards at a time and controlling possession. Boise wants to ride Dylan Riley. WMU is perfectly happy turning this into a grind. Fascinated to see who gets the game played on its terms. 4. Iowa @ Michigan: Iowa football at its finest I’m expecting a rock fight. Iowa brings an elite defense and a special teams unit capable of flipping field position or stealing points. If this comes down to the margins, that’s exactly where the Hawkeyes want it. 5. Ole Miss @ Florida: Letdown spot? Everyone is calling this a letdown spot after Ole Miss’ emotional win over Lane Kiffin and LSU. I’m not convinced Trinidad & Co. let that happen. Curious if I’m right, or if Jon Sumrall’s Florida team has arrived even faster than we thought. 6. Oklahoma @ Georgia: Can the Sooners find offense? Oklahoma has struggled to get going the last two weeks. Athens is not exactly where you want to search for answers. John Mateer, Ben Arbuckle and that OU offense could be in for a long day. 7. Texas A&M @ LSU: Who responds? A&M got punched in the mouth by Kentucky. LSU coming off the Ole Miss loss. Which one responds? 8. Missouri @ Mississippi State: Measuring stick time Kamario Taylor has been one of the early breakout players in college football. Now Mizzou comes to town. Really interested to see if Drink has something up his sleeve or if the Bulldogs can continue to shock. 9. Oklahoma State @ West Virginia: Two completely different offensive identities OSU wants to throw it with Drew Mestemaker. WVU leans heavily on Michael Hawkins Jr. and the run game. Which style wins out in Morgantown? 10. Wisconsin @ Penn State: Matt Campbell’s Big Ten debut First Big Ten game of the Matt Campbell era. I’ve seen plenty of Wisconsin upset picks this week. Biased or not, I’m confident Penn State wins and covers. I’ll be locked in at 5 PM. What’s at the top of your watchlist today?
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Moore College Football retweeted
Friday Night CFB Takeaways ARMY 21, TEMPLE 17 Positive: This was Army football at its core. The Black Knights ran it 57 times, possessed the ball for more than 38 minutes, and Cale Hellums accounted for 104 rushing yards and all 3 TDs. Most importantly, trailing 17-14 late, Army went 75 yards in 12 plays for the game-winning touchdown. Concern: The secondary was extremely vulnerable to explosives. Temple finished with 459 yards despite only 52 plays, including touchdown passes of 78 and 67 yards. Army controlled the game but couldn’t control Temple’s big-play offense. UAB 24, NAVY 20 Positive: The Blazers showed some serious late-game toughness. UAB forced two fourth-quarter takeaways, then Bam McReynolds flipped the game with his 48-yard go-ahead TD. UAB was outgained but won the moments that mattered most, securing its first-ever victory over Navy. Concern: Sustainability. Navy outgained UAB 353-290 and controlled possession for more than 34 minutes. The Blazers can’t consistently rely on turnovers and one or two explosive plays to generate their offense. #5 INDIANA 29, NORTHWESTERN 23 Positive: Indiana got tested for the first time and found an answer. With Turbo Richard leaving early, Lee Beebe Jr. erupted for 203 yards on 24 carries, repeatedly responding whenever Northwestern made it a one-score game. IU still produced 472 total yards and improved to 4-0. Concern: That second half should get Curt Cignetti’s attention. Northwestern scored all 23 of its points after halftime, Aidan Chiles threw for 293 yards, and Indiana committed 8 penalties for 60 yards. The Hoosiers survived, but against better Big Ten teams those mistakes can cost a game. CLEMSON 24, CAL 10 Positive: Clemson may finally have found something it can consistently lean on: the run game and defense. Gideon Davidson went for 159 yards and 2 TDs, including a 75-yarder, while the Tigers held Cal to 231 total yards, intercepted two passes and added a punt-return touchdown. Concern: The passing offense still isn’t giving Clemson much. Tait Reynolds finished with only 108 passing yards and an interception, and Clemson turned it over twice. The Tigers are winning again, but they’re still asking their defense, rushing attack and special teams to carry a heavy load. What is your biggest takeaway from Friday?
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Don’t believe in moral victories, but Northwestern impressed me tonight. Went four quarters with the defending national champions. David Braun has this team battling. New stadium opens next week vs. Penn State. The Wildcats won’t be an easy out the rest of the way.
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Griffin Wilde. Get up there! Northwestern-Indiana a 2 point game in the 4th 👀
wok
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