health maxi. Angel, investing in the future. Founder @PredictParity
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- Tweets 1,660
- Following 1,774
- Followers 6,896
- Likes 6,571
MovieTime retweeted
Kalshi is now live on Parity
- Price alerts on market movements
- Advanced orders types (stop loss, TWAP, market eye)
- Track traders
- Live trades feed
- Multiview
Connect with API to start trading today.
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MovieTime retweeted
Prediction markets are onboarding *273,908+ new users every month
The retention is what's interesting
50.2% stay more than 1 month
30% stay more than 3 months
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Vegas did $130M on the Super Bowl.
Prediction markets did $1.33B. 10x Vegas
1. @Kalshi - $871M
2. @Polymarket - $312M
3. @opinionlabsxyz - $92M
4. @predictdotfun - $31M
5. @Novig - $19M
6. @SX_Bet - $5M
7. @Overtime_io - $443K
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Visualized all non-sport prediction markets with $1m+ volume that have ended
Biggest takeaway is that these markets are quite asymmetrical
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Thanks @sui414 for the inspo
Prediction markets don’t all aggregate information the same way -
Sports bets accumulates volume early on and flattens near the end. While News market stay quiet and rise at the very last portion right before resolution.
Very different game (and edges) to play 👀
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Pull all the location data for Prediction Market Twitter.
Out of the 280,830 accounts the top locations were
United States 56,326
Hong Kong 15,841
India 11,669
A short story.
Shame on all of the projects that ran AI slop campaigns via InfoFi platforms.
The inorganic activity / fake metrics was obvious if you have common sense and it made X borderline unusable for everyone else.
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The data for anyone interested
1. United States 56,326
2. Hong Kong 15,841
3. India 11,669
4. Nigeria 9,517
5. United Kingdom 8,312
6. Japan 7,119
7. Germany 7,044
8. Canada 6,107
9. Singapore 5,099
10. Spain 4,619
11. Indonesia 4,419
12. France 4,211
13. Vietnam 4,000
14. Europe 3,810
15. Netherlands 3,715
16. Australia 3,652
17. Taiwan 3,570
18. South Korea 3,243
19. Turkey 3,226
20. Ukraine 2,829
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MovieTime retweeted
It's with a heavy heart I have to admit defeat on prediction markets.
Polymarket alone had 251,000 active addresses last week and did $1.1B in volume.
Meanwhile, trading bots on Solana did $946M volume with top 5 bots having 139,000 users combined.
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MovieTime retweeted
.@MovieTimeDev & @alexmccullaaa's Polymarket accuracy analysis made it on All-in this week. Amazing.
How accurate is Polymarket?
89% accurate 1 week out, but in the final 4 hours it jumps to 95% accuracy right before resolution.
Fun fact.
78% of Polymarket events resolve "NO" meaning markets consistently overprice unlikely events.
ALT Polymarket accuracy analysis: Expected vs actual outcomes across 56,279 market resolutions
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Liquidity is the biggest problem in prediction markets.
More liquidity = better spreads
19,736 markets on polymarket
16 have >$1M in liquidity
574 have >$100K
and 3,401 have >$10k
Thin liquidity = wide spreads = bad prices
ALT Polymarket Liquidity Overview
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MovieTime retweeted
How accurate is Polymarket?
89% accurate 1 week out, but in the final 4 hours it jumps to 95% accuracy right before resolution.
Fun fact.
78% of Polymarket events resolve "NO" meaning markets consistently overprice unlikely events.
ALT Polymarket accuracy analysis: Expected vs actual outcomes across 56,279 market resolutions
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Analyzed 52,158 Polymarkets at 12hrs before resolution
here is what I found
>polymarket is within 2-3% of the actual outcome
> its most accurate at 80% odds (variance of 0.3%)
> least accurate at 50% odds (with a variance of 6.9%)
ALT Prediction Market Accuracy
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My prediction market timeline recently
new markets
>kraken + draftkings both bought CFTC exchanges (entering pred markets)
expansions
>kalshi x jupiter (on-chain liquidity)
>NHL licenses to polymarket + kalshi
>underdog partnering with cryptocom, kalshi, polymarket
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8% of users yet 53% of the volume
prediction market users are betting more, why?
>better spread and lower fees
>thats the whole value
last month we had 751k* traders on prediction markets vs 8.64m* traders on sport books. (mau)
daily volume over the last month has averaged $216m on prediction markets
compared to the $405.6m volume on sports books.
thats 53% of their volume with 8% of the users.
ALT Sports Betting vs Prediction Markets MAU comparison.
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