Not financial advice, just financial flavor @cyoponbase
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🧵 The Problem with #DeFi Trading Today
1/ Everyone wants to "make it" in DeFi. But if you look around, the average trader loses money.
Why? Because the game is stacked against them.
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| CroutonDon | retweeted
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| CroutonDon | retweeted
Bitcoin closed the September candle above the 50-week SMA and above the May high.
$BTC
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The “UsePaid made a mistake sending money to huge accounts” take misses the product.
UsePaid isn't necessarily buying endorsements. It's buying the possibility of an attention event.
Elon demonstrates the failure mode: payment ≠ promotion.
Beff/e/acc + Crémieux demonstrate the interesting possibility: payment → recipient notices → public reaction → attention.
The real moat would be the dataset:
who gets paid → who reacts → engagement → incremental token volume
If UsePaid can eventually predict which X accounts actually generate distribution, it stops being a fee-routing gimmick and starts looking like attention infrastructure.
That's the bull case.
The unresolved question is whether the loop is repeatable.
And that question matters far more for $PAID than any individual celebrity payment.
1/
A lot of the current $PAID discourse is:
“UsePaid made a mistake sending money to huge accounts. Elon got paid and didn't promote anything.”
I think this misunderstands what UsePaid is actually trying to build.
The interesting product isn't “pay influencers to shill.”
It's attention infrastructure.
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A lot of the current $PAID discourse is:
“UsePaid made a mistake sending money to huge accounts. Elon got paid and didn't promote anything.”
I think this misunderstands what UsePaid is actually trying to build.
The interesting product isn't “pay influencers to shill.”
It's attention infrastructure.
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11/
My current view: $PAID
UsePaid has demonstrated that it can create financial attention events.
It has not demonstrated that those events reliably create sustained incremental distribution.
That's the experiment I'd be watching.
Not how much money Elon received.
What happened to volume after someone actually noticed?
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12/
The ultimate bull case isn't:
“UsePaid pays influencers.”
It's:
UsePaid learns how to convert token economics into measurable X distribution.
If it can prove that loop repeatedly, the product becomes considerably more interesting.
And then the $PAID buyback mechanism becomes much more interesting too.
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| CroutonDon | retweeted
bitcoin:native LIVE CASE STUDY.
IF 87.4K WAS THE LOCAL TOP, THIS IS WHERE THE MAPS AGREE:
74,951 → FIB 0.5 + LIQUIDITY HEAT
72,009 → FIB 0.618 + THE BRIGHTEST HEAT
68,184 → FIB 0.786 + $1.2B OF SHORTS LIQUIDATED
EVERY LEVEL TRACKED LIVE. TOOLS FREE ON #TRADINGVIEW.
tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD…
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| CroutonDon | retweeted
WE STILL REMEMBER 2018/19 — POSTING ABOUT ethereum:0x4a220e6096b25eadb88358cb44068a3248254675 ON QUANTASTIQUE, SPREADING THE WORD, AND DROPPING QUAMFY GIFS WHILE EVERYONE WAITED FOR LIFT-OFF.
RIDICULOUSLY FUN COMMUNITY. EVEN BETTER FEELING WHEN YOU KNEW YOU’D FOUND SOMETHING YEARS BEFORE THE MARKET CARED.
base:0x0c03ce270b4826ec62e7dd007f0b716068639f7b GIVES US A LITTLE OF THAT FEELING AGAIN.
FUNNY PART IS, AFTER ALL THESE YEARS, ethereum:0x4a220e6096b25eadb88358cb44068a3248254675 STILL DOESN’T EXACTLY FEEL FINISHED EITHER.
SOME THINGS TAKE TIME. THE GIFS AND MEMES JUST MAKE THE WAITING EASIER.
Back in 2020.. $QNT went from $1.50 to $425
It pumped 29,000% in just 77 weeks
Those were great times..
Do I think it will pump 29,000% this time around?
No..
But even if it moved 1/10th of that move across that timeframe..
We'd be just shy of $2k $QNT
And the fact its just broke out from a 4 year accumulation phase..
Makes that a real possibility imo
$QNT
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