So a collapsing rial, unpaid teachers, and a regime that cannot meet its bills are now being read as proof that sanctions are working, and therefore that this is a win for the United States. The economic pain is real. The leap from that to a policy success is not.
The odious regime in Tehran survived a bloody devastating war with Iraq, then ruled under international sanctions for decades, and still managed to pursue nuclear weapons and support terrorists worldwide. They are not going to collapse because it can’t pay teachers. As long as it can pay the men with the guns, it’s unlikely to be rattled. Especially after the suppression of the boldest opponents earlier.
When Trump unleashed this war, I hoped against hope that in the temporary power vacuum created by the decapitation of the regime, a more moderate wing will take over. That’s despite regional experts telling me otherwise — the regime was designed to survive this. I still hoped because I want the U.S. to succeed even when I argued that the war was the wrong way of dealing with the Iranian problem.
But this window was short-lived, and the regime closed ranks behind the hardliners. Now even people who are not Trump supporters tell us that sanctions are working, the economy is imploding, with the clear implication that Trump’s policies are working. Trump himself said this is vindicating the attack too.
Well, I hope they are right but I’m fairly confident that they are wrong. The regime is unlikely to fold. It has Chinese and Russian support. It is continuing to impose massive costs on us because to get the oil flowing back to prewar levels, we have to run expensive operations in the strait. It is still supporting the Houthis to the point that Saudi Arabia had to invade again. Our credibility in the region is shattered, and I don’t even know what independent inquiries will reveal about the losses we suffered there.
So no, this chart, as reassuring as it is, does not tell you the whole story and does not produce the conclusions people want it to, let alone retroactively vindicate the attack (because what’s happening right now is clearly very far from what Trump thought would happen).
On some level, Trump & his enablers realize this because they have doubled down on “high gas prices are a small price to pay to not get nuked.” Inducing fear, even less than founded fear, is a reliable way of shortcoming reason and producing visceral fight or flight responses. And Americans don’t do flight, or at least that’s what the macho guys like the SecDef LARPer seem to believe.
Iran is hitting a wall. Every day the Rial falls to a new low. That's a major vindication for the blockade and US sanctions. Iran's economy is imploding, even as it's lost its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has played its cards very poorly...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…