ALT A bar chart showing the chance of El Niño (red bars), ENSO-Neutral (grey bars), and La Niña (blue bars) provided for 9 upcoming, overlapping 3-month seasons (each letter represents a month, for example, F = February). The color shading within the bars indicates the chances of different categories of El Niño or La Niña strength (weak, moderate, strong, and very strong). Alternatively, the table at the internet address below presents the percent chances of each strength category in numerical form. https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths/

ALT 6 to 10 Day Precipitation Outlook issued September 1, 2026, valid September 7 to 11, 2026. A 50 to 60 percent chance of above-normal precipitation covers much of the interior West, including eastern California, the Northern and Central Great Basin, the Southwest, and parts of the Northern and Central Rockies. A 40 to 50 percent chance of above-normal precipitation spans parts of the Pacific Northwest, California, Southwest, and Northern and Central Plains. A broad area of 33 to 40 percent chance of above-normal precipitation covers much of the western and central United States.

ALT 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook issued September 1, 2026, valid September 9 to 15, 2026. A broad area of 33 to 40 percent chance of above-normal precipitation covers much of the western United States, excepting the Olympic Peninsula in the Northwest Pacific region, which is forecast to have near-normal precipitation. 40 to 50 percent chance of above-normal precipitation stretches from the Southwest northward through the Central and Northern Great Basin into parts of the Northern Rockies. A 50 to 60 percent chance of above-normal precipitation covers southern California and southwestern Arizona.

ALT The Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Precipitation Outlook issued August 31, 2026 for the period of September 8 to 14, 2026 indicates a greater than 60 percent chance of above normal precipitation for the Big Island of Hawaii and a greater than 50 percent chance of above normal precipitation for the remainder of the Island Chain.

ALT Dangerous heat will persist across the Southwest through Friday with daytime highs of 110-115°F. Expect numerous daily record highs and Major to Extreme HeatRisk. Little overnight relief is expected as many areas may not cool below 80°F for several nights in a row. Temperatures return to near-normal levels over the weekend. Dangerous heat will build across the Southern Plains again beginning this weekend, and persist into next week. Daytime highs of 95-105°F, with limited recovery at night due to lows only in the mid-70s (°F), will result in widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk. Increased chances for extreme heat continue into early Sep. A moderate risk (40-60% chance) of extreme heat remains highlighted across the south-central CONUS and Lower and Middle Mississippi, and Tennessee Valleys, Sep 4-6. Limit outdoor activity, stay hydrated, and ensure access to A/C or cooling centers. Check on vulnerable family, friends, and neighbors. Never leave kids or pets unattended in vehicles.

ALT The Climate Prediction Center Global Tropics Hazards Outlook released August 18, 2026 for the valid period of August 26, 2026 through September 8, 2026. More than a 60 percent chance of tropical cyclone development is indicated for the East Pacific from August 26 to September 1; with a 40 to 60 percent chance closer to the Central Pacific. From September 2-8, a 20 to 60 percent chance of tropical cyclone development is designated for the East and Central Pacific. This product is updated once per week and targets broad scale conditions integrated over a 7-day period for US interests only. This graphic does not indicate track or potential landfall of tropical systems. Refer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

ALT Key Message for Extreme Heat and Rapid Onset Drought over the Southern U.S. issued Aug 17, 2026. For Aug 25 to 31, over 60 percent chances of above-normal temperatures are indicated across much of the Southwest, Central, and Southern U.S. 70 to 80 percent chances of above-normal temperatures are indicated over southwestern Texas. A high risk (greater than 60 percent chance) of extreme heat covers the parts of the Southern and Central Plains, adjacent areas of the Mississippi Valley Aug 25 to 26. Moderate risk (40 to 60 percent chance) of extreme heat indicated for much of the Central and Southern Plains, Rockies, Desert Southwest, parts of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, and adjacent parts of the Southeast Aug 25 to 28. Slight risk (20 to 40 percent chance) of extreme heat indicated for portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, Rockies, Central and Southern Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeast Aug 25 to 31. Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) risk for

ALT Key Message for Prolonged Southern U.S. Heat Wave and Rapid Onset Drought issued August 10, 2026, updated August 13, 2026, for August 21–27. A greater than 60 percent chance of above-normal temperatures is forecast across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeast for August 21–27. A high risk (greater than 60 percent chance) of extreme heat affects the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley August 21, with heat indices possibly reaching over 105 to 110 degrees Fahrenheit and near-record overnight lows possible. A moderate risk (40 to 60 percent) is indicated for the Central and Southern Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeast August 21 to 23, and a slight risk indicated for portions of the Central and Southern Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, Southeast, and southern Mid-Atlantic August 21 to 27. Rapid Onset Drought is underway across the Central/Southern Plains and

ALT A bar chart showing the chance of El Niño (red bars), ENSO-Neutral (grey bars), and La Niña (blue bars) provided for 9 upcoming, overlapping 3-month seasons (each letter represents a month, for example, F = February). The color shading within the bars indicates the chances of different categories of El Niño or La Niña strength (weak, moderate, strong, and very strong). Alternatively, the table at the internet address below presents the percent chances of each strength category in numerical form. https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths/

ALT Key Message of extreme heat for much of the South-Central and Southeastern U.S. released August 10, 2026, for August 18-24. a) The CPC Week-2 temperature outlook depicts large probabilities (greater than 70 percent chance) of above normal temperatures across the Southern Great Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley Aug 18 to 24. b) The risk of hazardous temperatures depicts a high risk (60 to 80 percent chance) of extreme heat across parts of the Central and Southern Great Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. Moderate (40 to60 percent chance) and slight (20 to 40 percent chance) risks of extreme heat for a broader area of the south-central and southeastern U.S. and are valid from Aug 18 to 22 and Aug 18 to 24, respectively. A Rapid Onset Drought risk is posted for parts of the Southern Great Plains, Ozarks, and Lower Mississippi Valley.

ALT An enhanced Southwest Monsoon is forecast next week as ridging across the West breaks down and begins to shift farther east. The Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day U.S. Hazards Outlook issued August 3, 2026 indicates a moderate risk (40 to 60 percent chance) of heavy precipitation, along with flooding possible, over portions of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners, August 11 to 14, 2026. A broader, slight risk (20 to 40 percent chance) of heavy precipitation is depicted over these areas, August 11 to 17.

ALT An expanding heat wave will build across much of the central and southern areas of the Lower 48 this weekend into next week. Dangerous and record-breaking temperatures are possible. The heat will continue into week 2, spreading into the West. Graphics show the maximum HeatRisk over the country through next Thursday and the chance for continuing heat during the first week of August.