chief political analyst, @nytimes. writing about elections, public opinion and demographics for @UpshotNYT. polling and needling. PNW expat.
Washington, DC
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Nate Cohn retweeted
A final data-point to add to the mix, released this morning: we have D+14 in the governor's race.
That's more Democratic than any of the other polls in the race
nytimes.com/interactive/2026…
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A few thoughts on our latest Maine poll, which shows Collins+3
Is it an outlier or omen?
nytimes.com/2026/09/24/us/po…
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You can read my newsletter on the poll - which takes on how to think about this as a possible outlier nytimes.com/2026/09/24/upsho…
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A final data-point to add to the mix, released this morning: we have D+14 in the governor's race.
That's more Democratic than any of the other polls in the race
nytimes.com/interactive/2026…
1
6
127
48,230
Nate Cohn retweeted
You can read my newsletter on the poll - which takes on how to think about this as a possible outlier nytimes.com/2026/09/24/upsho…
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36,949
Outtake: I think Alaska is my favorite state to poll. When else would we hear from people in the Aleutians or within shouting distance of Russia?
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Today, we have some significant and, at least to my mind, fun new methodological changes to the NYT/Siena poll (which found Platner+2)
nytimes.com/2026/06/29/upsho…
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I'm going to break my self-imposed social media ban to note something that I might write if I wasn't leaving on a trip tonight:
If you want to solve gerrymandering, it is a solvable problem.
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One solution that I'm not sure makes as much sense: a state-level proportionality standard (including the efficiency gap). Single-member districts don't yield proportionality; making them do so will require things that look like gerrymandering and/or be impossible
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