Meet Rizzo's, a Chicago sports bar that lives and dies by Cubs home games. When the Cubs play at Wrigley, Rizzo's is packed and pulls in tens of thousands of dollars a night. When the Cubs don't play at home, the bar takes a hit. Playoff season makes that swing even bigger, so Rizzo's hedged it on Kalshi. We made a market for them: How many playoff games will the Cubs host this season? Rizzo's position: NO on 2+ home games. If the Cubs host 2+ games, Rizzo's has extra playoff nights and makes thousands in added revenue. If the Cubs host fewer, Rizzo's misses out on that playoff revenue, but their Kalshi position pays out to cover it. Either way, Rizzo's is covered.

Calling it a “prediction market” doesn’t change the facts. If you’re taking bets in New York, our gambling laws apply. Today, @NewYorkStateAG and I sued Polymarket for running an illegal gambling operation and preying on vulnerable New Yorkers.

Brenden Theaters runs 7 movie theaters across 4 states. Their revenue lives and dies on one thing they can't control: how many movies the studios decide to release. Big slate, full theaters. Thin slate, empty seats. So COO Robert Lytle asked us to list a market: "How many wide film releases next quarter?" Brenden now takes the side they don't want to happen: fewer than 60 films. Thin slate, the trade pays out. Big slate, they lose the trade but sell more tickets. He calls it "almost an insurance policy." "The theater industry, we're really slow at adoption and really slow at innovation. We're trying to be a company that's kind of on the forefront of a lot of these things now." Read the full article here: cbsnews.com/news/kalshi-smal…

“But a prediction market is not simply a casino. It produces a public good: a real-time projection, accessible to anyone, of the likelihood of a particular event occurring.” washingtonpost.com/opinions/…

HUGE FLIP: Democratic Socialist Nithya Raman now leads incumbent Karen Bass in the LA Mayor odds

We just submitted a regulatory filing to introduce margin on a subset of long-dated prediction markets. This will not apply to sports, culture, and a few other categories. We are very excited to be taking what we believe is our most important step toward institutional adoption so far. Capital efficiency has been the biggest bottleneck for institutions, and margin is the single most requested feature. Fully collateralizing long-dated contracts ties up substantial capital for months or years, making participation impractical for many institutions. It is very difficult for a large institutional market to develop without margin. Margin addresses that problem by reducing capital requirements, subject to strict risk standards. Some important characteristics of our proposal: • Margin applies only to a narrow set of categories, excluding sports and culture. • It is geared toward institutions and subject to strict eligibility requirements. • The risk methodology is modeled on approaches used by established clearinghouses and tested over decades. It incorporates conservative safeguards around volatility, liquidity, concentration, and event risks, as well as measures to limit sharp increases in margin requirements during market stress. The goal is a better trading experience for users. Greater capital efficiency enables more institutional participation, bringing deeper liquidity and better pricing. That makes our markets more attractive to more traders, whose participation further strengthens liquidity and improves the experience for everyone.

Julie and Samuel run La Méchante, handmaking savory and sweet tarts all week to sell at Smorgasburg Market in Williamsburg on Saturdays and at Columbus Circle on Sundays. For an outdoor vendor, one rainy day can wipe out a week of work. So they started hedging rain on Kalshi. At first they traded the morning of market days, checking "Where will it rain today?" Now they trade "Where will it rain this weekend?" starting Monday, when prices are more in their favor. That protection gave them the confidence to sign on for something they wouldn't have risked before: 43 straight days selling tarts in Union Square. Small businesses live and die by the weather. Now they can hedge it. Vendors, restaurants, and anyone who works outdoors can hedge rain on Kalshi today.

BREAKING: 50% chance Fed "hikes" interest rates next month