Associate Prof @SurreyPolitics. Director @CGPC_surrey. Visiting Fellow @LSEIDEAS. Power analysis, strategy, and neoclassical realist nerdiness.
London
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SAVE AMERICAN STUDIES TEACHING AT THE UNIVERSITY OF NOTTINGHAM - Sign the Petition! c.org/kzJyJYYg2D via @UKChange
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Just no evidence NATO enlargement debate was about military security. It’s about the reason why the Cold War was lost - the economic consequences of defeat. Once E Europe was part of the transatlantic financial system its prosperity would advance too fast for Russia’s comfort.
I struggle with the NATO enlargement debate for the following reasons.
-- The prima facie case is "we ignored Russia at our peril; if we only took their concerns into account--i.e. did not enlarge NATO to the East--then things would have turned out better. Didn't they tell us, time and again, that this was unacceptable."
-- But then in comes the counterargument: "If we did not find a safe anchoring for these countries in NATO, they'd be much less secure than they are today. In effect, there would be many more Moldovas and Ukraines." Also: "Why should we have indulged Russia with its imperialist fantasies; we should have actually been straightforward with the Russians, so they'd face the reality that they had lost the Cold War. Tough love. Instead we tried to humor them."
-- Then comes in the other counterargument: "Then, why should we be surprised that a resurgent Russia is trying to screw us over. Tough love. And as for Eastern Europe, are they more secure today, with an aggressive Russia at their doorstep, and Art. 5 little better than make-believe?"
-- The counterargument to that is: "Absolutely, they are better off, just look at Ukraine."
-- "But Ukraine would not have happened if..."
-- "Of course, it would..."
This is a conversation one is bound to have in one's head. Arguments on both sides have merit, yet they can't all be true, can they?
Unfortunately, when it comes to this whole topic, I am like Isiah Berlin's fox, jumping here and there, because each position--when taken to its logical conclusion--leads to absurdity.
In any case, the evidence is pretty thin for much of this on-going argument. What we do have mounting evidence for is that throughout the 1990s the Russians incessantly complained about NATO's eastern enlargement. It wasn't something Putin suddenly came up with in 2007. Make of it what you will.
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New Article Alert! “If You Build It, They Will Come.” Infrastructure, Hegemonic Transition, and Peaceful Change, with Simon Curtis is out in @GSQ_Journal. Thanks to the team there for a really smooth review process. doi.org/10.1093/isagsq/ksaf0…
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We isolate three pathways: renewing and redirecting existing infrastructure; building alternatives to existing infrastructure; and developing and deploying new infrastructures at the leading edge of technological development. (4/)
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In the week after the DOD axes the Office of Net Assessment, in the UK we're prioritising that kind of deep, critical diagnostic thinking. Job at Oxford in strategic net assessment pmb.ox.ac.uk/vacancy/strateg…
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More on the task of strategic net assessment here
Under conditions of great power competition, how can we tell who’s winning? This is the question I tackle in a new article in @SurvivalEditors, just out. doi.org/10.1080/00396338.202… 🧵
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Very timely stuff: I would expect a different diagnosis of Europe's challenges than @JDVance presented at Munich, but if the point of that particular intervention was to encourage great European autonomy, that discussion will certainly be prominent.
📢 Join us in Surrey, UK, for the "Challenges to Europe – European Challenges" Conference, exploring the forces shaping politics, society, and democracy across the continent 🇪🇺 📅 28-29 May 2025 | 📍University of Surrey 🔗 Free registration: 2025cbeeuropeanchallenges.ev…
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Nicholas Kitchen retweeted
This is so true. There’s a gigantic credibility gap.
People are getting excited about Macron's offer "to open a strategic debate" on how France could protect Europe with its nuclear weapons. But I don't see how this debate can come to any conclusion other than that it cannot. Let's take a closer look... 1/
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Roll up! Great opportunity to present work on all things Europe - from populist politics to the Western alliance. I'll be giving a keynote entitled 'Sleeping with a stricken elephant' but don't let that particular imagery put you off - get your abstracts in!
✳️CALL FOR PAPERS✳️
The CBE, with @PolStudiesAssoc German, Italian & Greek Specialists, invites you to the Challenges to Europe - European Challenges Conference at the @UniOfSurrey, 28-29 May 2025.
Submit your abstract by 20 Jan 2025!
Details: surrey.ac.uk/news/call-paper…
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I was a discussant for an earlier version of this paper back @MYBISA in Glasgow last year, and it's really good to see it out. Trump's particular brand of masculinity and his declinism are clear, what Clara does really nicely is to connect the two.
This is finally out ! “A gendered analysis of US decline: a cautionary tale” available Open Access in International Relations journal 💥 @LSBU_LSS #trumpism #USdecline #hybridmasculinity #UShegemony #FeministIR
journals.sagepub.com/doi/ful…
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Hi @guardianmoney I’ve got a consumer case for you. @Airbnb refusing to provide a partial refund because the host refuses to, despite a property not having an advertised tennis court. Apparently this doesn’t count as a ‘significant difference’ and @AirbnbHelp just closed the case
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When the great Bob Jervis comes in the post and it used to belong to @PatMcGovern16
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Hi @Airbnb, @AirbnbHelp: it’s now over three weeks, three calls and seven ignored chat messages since your last engagement with my support case. Is you approach to customer support to ignore customer problems until they get bored?
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Really valuable thread. The main issue I see with SDRs is that the DR bit has to follow from the S bit, and (grand) strategy cannot be limited to defence - GS is ultimately about national goals and how you achieve them, defending against threats is only a part of that.
On the UK Strategic Defence Review’s ‘External Reviewer’ model…
Heartened by @FTusa284’s optimism, but there are two key risks to this approach that need mitigating:
1. The peril of groupthink, and
2. The very notion of outsourced ‘Reviewers’
To tackle the latter first…
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Nicholas Kitchen retweeted
CGPC co-director Josh Andresen argues that the proliferation of economic sanctions does not undermine their lawfulness, but rather increased state practice will support a customary norm of unilaterally imposed sanctions link.springer.com/article/10…
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