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Still hold the opinions below into March. The only mod I would make is instead of "no war" it's "limited US involvement". Bullish moves already with junk in the small caps - where FOMO will be big. Dovish interest rate increase, endemic, spring/reopening = indexes 🚀... then 💥
My "opinion": Market algos *setup* to dip/trade ➡️ into next month (& play head games w/retail). Russian war talk helps this. A teetering market forces dovish Fed inflation talk (to prevent crash), US news shifts to no war/"endemic"/reopening, FOMO ensues, crazy highs, then crash
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100% done sharing trades on social media. I appreciate those whom I've interacted with positively on here. But the hate I got in my inbox when I talked about a melt-up & now the hate for the short calls is *not* worth the energy. If my work is divisive, it's not worth my time.
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Big shoutout to @GeorgeC1953 for being one of the good ones on this platform. He's been a wealth of information, especially with options - which I will no longer touch 🤣. But if that is your game, there is no one better to follow and learn from. Thank you, Mr. Costanza. 🍻🤜🤛
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If anyone wants updated charts regarding my bullsh*t short calls, just let me know. The problem, like I've mentioned, is if this is the start of the melt-up, then there is *far* more upside than downside in the *near-term*. Shorts will get crushed. Monday is my stay or bail day.
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What is a "successful" trade idea to you? I've seen claims an idea was good if it went up 20% after a call before dropping -30% to reach the target. Is it price movement after the call, staying within support/resistance boundaries to then reach the target, or other? Very curious.
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No more new options contracts for me. It's the fastest way to blow your account. Prove me wrong.
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Please don't get trapped in a bull move today... wait for confirmation, a stock pattern/formation break, or something you use on *chart* to decide to enter or leave a trade. Good luck to everyone this week!
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$VIX with the gap above. Always gets filled.
On top of the Fed meeting today, Friday is Quad Witching Day...
Step 1 (bearish market into the Fed meeting) is occurring & *may extend* beyond this week. Step 2 (dovish interest rate hike, like 1/4 point) may lead to Step 3 (endemic, reopening, war "focus" fades) & melt-up. You don't have to agree, but people underestimate market psychology.
Still hold the opinions below into March. The only mod I would make is instead of "no war" it's "limited US involvement". Bullish moves already with junk in the small caps - where FOMO will be big. Dovish interest rate increase, endemic, spring/reopening = indexes 🚀... then 💥
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New gamble this week: Nvidia $NVDA. Jumped +7% today.... May hit resistance at the 200 EMA ($232, green line). Started an April 14 put position w/a strike of $205 (filled for $6.88). Likely too many headwinds this week for it to take off just yet... but we'll see.
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$SKIN. Another ticker likely to fill the gap below before making a strong and continued move up. bit.ly/3N3zFxU
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Upstart $UPST. In the near-term, this is a hard call. But insiders have dumped $1.8 billion worth since the IPO & it looks like a massive head & shoulders. I expect the gap below to be filled or even to $45 (or lower) eventually. With a run up, I'll short bit.ly/3Ji4psv
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I exited my $GLW April 14 puts in mid-Feb for a -20% loss after the stock "mis-behaved" a little when it created a new high out of the falling wedge. These puts are now up +234% 🤦♂️. Impatience and emotional trading can be a portfolio killer. It gets us all.
Averaged into my April put position for Corning $GLW when it hit $43 today (strike $41, avg now $1.51). It's following the TA well, so far. Flipping on the volume profile (bars on the right), you can see resistance (a "ledge") is right where it stopped. Hopefully it falls soon 🤞
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Started a short position with $FIGS at $16. Earnings gap (down to $14.53) that needs to be filled for this bleeder. I like the company, but the chart is no good until it breaks through the falling wedge's resistance. Bottom is an unknown, here... bit.ly/3N3kBAm
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