Mapping the drivers behind every event.
Bittensor Subnet #6
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Numinous-1 model is now publicly available! Both to miners and outside users. It is a SOTA predictive model in its weight class, beating other top open source forecasting models like DeepSeek and GLM.
eversight.numinouslabs.io/do…
It becomes the new subnet baseline. Miners will have to beat it to be rewarded. Reward concentrates. Level improves.
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Today Numinous is releasing its impact UI!
Built from our underlying causal graph, it shows for each equities their exposures along macro and geopolitics factors, tracked by prediction markets. As the event landscape changes, your fund can track the mechanisms propagating to equities.
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The factors are publicly available on a restricted universe.
Reach out to us to get access to our portfolio tool, factor matrix and supply chain focused factors! 👇
impact.numinouslabs.io/facto…
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Logarithmic pooling on our top 10 miners beats the price for the first time. 👀
Sharing that directly through API soon.
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Follow the edge 👇
leaderboard.numinouslabs.io/…
Our model mapped against the forecast crowd over time.
Today Numinous is announcing its first forecasting model: Numinous-1! It’s an 8B parameter model fine-tuned over Qwen3-8B. We will make it available in the coming days.
The model was fine tuned using the best reasoning trajectories from the miners. It never sees the prices, only the best belief updates among the miners.
With an optimised harness, the model beats all the miners in our crowd over a 9 days backtest! With a generic harness the model ranks between 5 and 7.
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Today Numinous is announcing its first forecasting model: Numinous-1! It’s an 8B parameter model fine-tuned over Qwen3-8B. We will make it available in the coming days.
The model was fine tuned using the best reasoning trajectories from the miners. It never sees the prices, only the best belief updates among the miners.
With an optimised harness, the model beats all the miners in our crowd over a 9 days backtest! With a generic harness the model ranks between 5 and 7.
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Miners will be able to access it. And as they get better, the trajectories will improve, and thus our next model iterations will improve!
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We also start incentivising miners for their reasoning trajectories. To make our training data richer quickly.
Each market on Numinous now comes with a hindsight agent which is tasked with building a causal graph based what it believes ex post are the key market moving events. Miners which reasoning show foresight are rewarded.
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Navier Stokes fell today. What about detecting causality from correlations? Numinous might have a say about that.
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We integrated a baseline forecaster to the scoring as another difficulty proxy. Along the prediction market price.
Only miners which score above the baseline are rewarded. The baseline will be continually improved based on historically best agents, in a challenger style approach.
The winning miners will get rewards distributed by the quadratic scoring already in place. Bigger reward concentration for better miners.
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👉 Join the Numinous leaderboard and get paid for your forecasts if you beat the baseline: leaderboard.numinouslabs.io/…
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First Numinous buy-back is in!
We bought back our alpha with 4 TAO. This is 10% of the revenue we made on the Forecasting API across July and August. Expect more. 📈
Tx: taomarketcap.com/extrinsics/…
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