Retired finance professional. I can't see the future and neither can you; anyone who says different has something to sell. NOTHING I SAY IS INVESTMENT ADVICE.
OddStatsHonestTruth@gmail.com
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Today was only the second time in the history of SPY where
▪ "NYSE New Lows" was 12% or higher
▪ SPY was within 1.5% of all time highs
And would you like to see how SPX did over the next 55 days last time? I fucking thought so.
[h/t to @BenKizemchuk for the concept&data]
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So anyway, just unfollow me and start following Kawa and you'll get everything you need.
The last time the S&P 500 was this close to a record (-0.44%) with fewer of its members above their 200d moving averages (51.2%)?
March 27, 2000, the day after the index put in its dot com bubble closing peak!
(-0.24% with just 34.1% of members above the 200d).
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Sure, you're going to lose money today.
Probably a lot.
But take solace in knowing that in 150 years, no one on Earth will remember your name or anything you did and that none of this mattered at all.
And that you could have been fishing.
Or writing poetry.
Or in love.
Oh well.
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For those of you who weren't following me back in early 2019, here's how I blew out my retirement fun-money account by getting greedy and stupid.
In retrospect, I did fail to mention the copious amounts of mind altering prescription meds.
Still.
Idiot.
My apologies.
This is long.
This is boring.
I know these aren't fun.
I don't need/want your pity; I just honestly hope I can save one person from this stupid nightmare.
TL;DR - I finally destroyed my gambling account.
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This is the 8th time in QQQ history that it had (exactly) a 5 day win streak to set a new all time high close, while VXN (VIX for QQQ) was over 20.
6 of the 7 previous times, QQQ was down the next day, by a median of -0.7%
Feels like I could have told you about this earlier.
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QQQ just had a 5 day win streak to set a new all time high close.
This is the 12th time now during the 0DTE era it's done this.
In exactly 5 of the 11 previous events, QQQ was:
▪ Down 3d later
▪ Down 1wk later
▪ Down 2wk later
▪ Up the next day
Verdict: Crapshoot
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OddStats retweeted
Volatility of $VIX, $VVIX, fell below 82 today. Its lowest level of 2026.
In 8 prior cases when VVIX fell below 82 after staying above it for at least 3 months, the S&P 500 $SPX was higher 3 days later 100% of the time.
FUCK.
Been a while since I posted something this interesting.
Today, QQQ was
▪ Up at least +2.75%
▪ On a day VXN (VIX for QQQ) was up at least +1.00 point
And how has QQQ done 2 weeks and 1 month after every similar event in the past?
Hahahahahahafuck.
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