Hydrocarbons barbarian. You are here for Oil & Tanker analytics #OOTT
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Today is cheaper to put 160 barrels in a 40ft container and ship it to China than to hire a VLCC in a $ per barrel basis.
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This explains why Orlen went into panic since Friday (and so did Dated Brent).
REUTERS- Saudi Arabia has informed its European customers that some late-September crude oil cargoes will be cancelled.
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2, Vitol fixed this one and a "prosperity" for end Sep. That has "teapot" written all over it. Now there's nothing available pointing to NWE within the Dated window... good luck
4/ Ekofisk, FOB:
Equinor bid Oct. 5-7 at +$8.75
FORTIES TO ASIA:
VLCC Gustavia S was booked to load from Hound Point, the terminal for North Sea Forties crude, on Sept. 25 to China, according to tanker fixtures seen by Bloomberg
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The last piece of the puzzle: North Sea physical differentials jump $3. Paper got ahead last week, now everything is priced accordingly. Markets work.
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Saudi Aramco's Arab Light Oct OSP to Asia unchanged at Dubai -2 (it should have been +8)
R.I.P. OSPs
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Great, now we are ditching useless market conventions, I propose:
-Getting rid of that worldscale thing and start quoting in $/tn like a normal person
-Stop counting barrels in a 24hrs timeframe, give me the bulk number and I'll do my own math
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The first VLCC (9734642) loading in North Sea to China since April. Dated Brent gets a boost
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What I thought was a mishap (wrong market timing from China) might hide other intent. There is systematic bidding from china everywhere, today's Dubai MoC (or what's left of it) was just two chinese outbidding eachother. The homemade oil futures broke loose yesterday.
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VLCC operator Sinokor has “at least” 31 vessels in the area, of which 21 have been "AIS off" for over a day, might be there, might not… then they have another 14 vessels with the AIS off elsewhere in the world, which could be there…or could be here..
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Let’s say 30 vessels deployed for the shuttle trade? Should we say one week to load/transit/STS? That means a turnover of 4 vessels per day, 8Mnbpd max… add another operator that could squeeze a boat, add inefficiencies, convoy scheduling, partially laden vessels..
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We could have days with 10Mnbpd, possibly.. but days with just 1mnbpd are equally present. Pick a timeline and it will fit your narrative.
Play around: nextbarrel.io/
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