I get the need to fabricate one more fake-news dump to crush crude oil prices before Brent Friday expiry.
But the attempts are now getting lame, especially bringing JD Vance back after everything else has already failed to work.
Based on options positioning, every trader out there seems convinced Trump will pull the trigger and attack Iran after the midterms.
However, I do not think it ever happened that a military attack ended up being successful with ZERO element of surprise. The reason why I believe that Trump might continue to drag his feet - especially when the Houthis are already straining the Saudi Arabian military, and the country cannot sustain further damage to its oil infrastructure triggered by an assured Iranian counteroffensive against them and their strategic oil targets if Trump decided to escalate.
Considering this, I believe many option traders will end up losing a lot of premium heading into the 20th of November expiry, while crude oil prices will nevertheless continue grinding higher because of the lack of crude oil supply from the Middle East that continues draining SPR and crude oil commercial inventories everywhere else in the world. Because of this, the longer the crude oil supply disruptions persist, the higher the chances of shortages to occur in the future when there won't be enough supply available to serve all the demand for fuel that, thanks to suppressed crude oil prices, remained sticky and elevated until now.