Maybe, we are near the end of the world but difficult to ignore this study many are following. The S&P is 19-0 since 1950 in the six month November-Mid Election through April Pre Election Year time frame for an avg six month gain of 14.79% with worse case performance of 3.52% in 2002-03. Earnings can certainly trump seasonals, but a short at the end of October is a balsy play.