Former Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Defence and Foreign Affairs, former MEP.

After USSR attacked Finland in 1939, it was excluded from League of Nations, after Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022 it should be excluded from UN. Especially, if UN wants to be respected again.
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Artis Pabriks retweeted
🎾 “Lielākā problēma nav ieročos. Lielākā problēma ir cilvēku prātos.” Krievijas iebrukums Ukrainā mainījis Eiropas drošību, bet Artis Pabriks uzskata, ka Latvijas lielākais uzdevums ir mainīt sabiedrības domāšanu. Par to, kāpēc mums nav jādomā, kur bēgt, kā drošība var kļūt par ekonomikas izrāviena iespēju un kāpēc Latvijai jāspēj pieņemt drosmīgus lēmumus, – šajā sarunā. 📖 Lasi Arta Pabrika interviju mūsu mājaslapā: attistibai.lv/artis-pabriks-…
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Artis Pabriks retweeted
Russian schools attempting Hamas-levels of indoctrinating children to war and violence.
Replying to @PowerNaShary
Они же дети....
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Artis Pabriks retweeted
These are typical areas of concentration of russian Shahed drones amid attacks. One clearly sees they use radio stations in Belarus - but also obviously those in russia-occupied Moldovan Transnistria region. Another reason to help Moldova to restore control over their land.
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Artis Pabriks retweeted
That Danish intelligence report is broadly in line with what the Baltics are saying. The threat assessment is unchanged here. Russia increasingly seeks to escalate its so-called hybrid attacks on the West, while a more conventional military strike on a NATO country - possibly as a false flag - is a low but real possibility. What happened in Leipzig shows though that this is definitely not just a story about the Baltics. All of Europe is threatened. Russia will escalate wherever it senses weakness. The really crucial bit in the intelligence is that Russia still wants to keep everything below the threshold of triggering a military response. And the purpose is to deter us from supporting Ukraine. A couple of things have confused the public perception of all this. Firstly, El Mundo released a story just before about CIA warnings of military drone strikes across Spain, France, and Italy. Macron made clear later that wasn’t true. The clue is that would pretty obviously trigger a strong, united European response - exactly what Russia wants to avoid - so that threat only works for Russia as a story about what Putin might do. Also, the Institute for the Study of War recently released a plausible-sounding analysis about how a Russian incursion into Estonia at Narva might unfold. Not too plausible to a lot of people who live there though, especially those in the Estonian Defence League. The analysis was based on a number of flawed assumptions about local dynamics, which hugely overstate Russian capabilities, including inside the town of Narva itself, and hugely understate Estonian capabilities in their own country. I was writing about that yesterday when the Danish report came through so decided to put it all together in this one article. TL;DR: We spend a lot of time arguing about what Putin will do next. But the future of our nations can never be dependent on the whims of one adversary. What really matters is ensuring our countries are secured against any adversary who would seek to harm us. Despite what “Russia experts” on here will tell you, Russia’s calculations about whether and how to escalate are not predetermined. They are constantly calculating the strength of our resilience. Narva is actually a great example of that resilience, exemplifying the whole-of-society approach to defence across Estonia and the Baltics and especially in Finland. People who live in Narva are not background actors waiting to take their cue in Russian narratives. It is an Estonian town, home to a lot of people who are trained and ready and proud to defend their country, Estonia, against any adversary and every day prove themselves to be capable of disrupting those who would harm their town. And that whole-of-society approach to defence goes much deeper, including through education on media literacy, for example, or how to spot attempts at grooming assets, and involving all civic society in crises exercises. Frankly, to all our fellow Europeans and to all fans of a rules-based world of sovereign nations, stop pitying Narva and start learning from them. And remember the best defence is to stand firm on our values and support Ukraine.
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Artis Pabriks retweeted
Looks like Ribbentrop and Molotov just gave each other a follow on Twitter.
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Precīzs novērojums un atgādinājums: Krievija dzīvo kara sistēmā, kamēr Eiropa joprojām miera shēmā, bez adekvātas atbildes uz uzbrukumiem. Vienlaikus, Krievija mazina NATO kolektīvās rīcības spējas.
SPECIAL REPORT | NEW: Russia is operating within a war framework against Europe while Europe continues to function within a peace framework. A full-scale war between Russia and NATO is not inevitable or imminent, but NATO and European states must recognize the framework the Kremlin is using to conduct necessary efforts to deter Russian escalation. The Kremlin is conducting several mutually supporting campaigns against Europe in order to support its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and advance its longstanding grand strategic objectives of breaking NATO and reestablishing dominant influence over former Soviet states. ISW assesses that the Kremlin is conducting a series of overlapping campaigns to achieve at least two overarching strategic objectives: Reduce or eliminate European military and diplomatic support for Ukraine; and neutralize NATO as a unified alliance capable of opposing Russia. The Kremlin is also conducting three coordinated military campaigns in distinct operational theaters targeting the airspace and territory of NATO member states and Moldova that are extensions of Russia's war in Ukraine. The growing pace of Russian kinetic actions against Europe is intended to cause two effects: to raise NATO's threshold of what actions are considered worthy of a response, and to inure NATO governments and populations to constant alerts so that they do not take any individual Russian action seriously. The Kremlin also benefits, however, from European underreaction to the Kremlin's ongoing campaigns, and particularly from the analysts and public officials who reject any discussion of ongoing Russian kinetic campaigns against Europe or warnings of the near-term Russian threat out of hand. Finding a balance between necessary urgency and panic will be incredibly challenging in the face of both Russian information operations and good faith policy disagreements, but NATO and Europe must address this balance. The difficulty European governments face in acknowledging that Russia is operating within a war framework and pursuing actual military lines of effort against and within European states is proof of the success of Russian cognitive warfare efforts. European political parties and populations must understand the degree to which they have been conditioned by extensive Russian efforts to avoid calling Russian actions what they are — parts of a military campaign intended to achieve discrete effects. No one desires a war with Russia. The purpose of describing the Russian war framework and advocating for responses to it is to avoid escalation and conventional war. Europe (and the United States) must find a way to open their discourse to the idea that they must recognize the war framework.
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Replying to @Pabriks
Kāpēc @Latvijas_armija nevar dod rīkojumu kā rīkoties, kad tos šādi provocē? Vieni rāda kaut kādus papīrus, vieni nerāda, sauc @Valsts_policija , tērē valsts resursus ar mērķi pasmieties par drošības institūcijām. Lai apmaksā VP ierašanās izdevumus, ja šādi katru reizi uzvedas.
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As reported by Newsweek, the CIA has warned Poland about potential Russian acts of sabotage targeting the banking system. According to Polish sources, Russia has been scouting the locations of undersea cables used for international financial transactions—particularly in the Baltic Sea and the Atlantic. US intelligence agencies have urged banks to prepare for potential disruptions. While data traffic could be rerouted, damage to the cables could hinder interbank transactions. Possible scenarios also include drone-based provocations and cyberattacks aimed at leaving behind misleading digital traces.
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Artis Pabriks retweeted
A reminder to those East Germans with minds now successfully pickled in Putin's propaganda, voting AFD and longing for the days of GDR.. Things were so great in GDR that East Germans regularly attempted escape by swimming across the river, under machine gun fire, with many dead or captured.
Jay in Kyiv
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Russia ejection officials crouch to avoid being filmed while they sweat for putin’s electoral triumph. Just to be filmed by another camera. Dictatorships can be funny.
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Artis Pabriks retweeted
John Mearsheimer is hailed as an intellectual titan by both ends of the political spectrum. Tucker Carlson called him “an oracle” who is “universally respected”, adding in a recent introduction that “he’s smart and he’s erudite, but above all, he is wise.” His recent visit to Russia seems to raise some doubts about that. So here’s a deep dive into his ‘realism’ and how realists lost touch with reality: badbaltic.com/acclaimed-russ…
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Labas ziņas, kas dod iespēju cerēt, ka Izraēlas tehnoloģijas un aizsardzības industrijas sadarbība ar Latvijas tehnoloģiju uzņēmumiem ir ministra prioritāte. Tas vairos Latvijas aizsardzības spējas un stiprinās ekonomiku.
Aizsardzības ministrija 🇱🇻
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Šis jāredz visiem, kuri arī man prasa- ko darīt? via @Latvijas_armija Sargs.lv: "Droši ir zināt": Baltija Kremļa tēmēklī. Cik nopietni ir draudi? sargs.lv/lv/podkasti/2026-09…
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Manuprāt, ļoti korekts situācijas atspoguļojums. Krievija ir drauds. Krievija izmanto visus savus hibrīdresursus rietumos, lai sašķeltu, iebaidītu un padarītu rietumus par pacifistiem.
A reality check on the current “war with Russia is about to start” frenzy. Russia is aggressive. It is waging a major war in Ukraine, conducting sabotage and other terror operations in Europe and yes, is testing NATO's red lines Russia probably wants us to believe so - but there is no new intelligence assessment saying Russia is about to attack NATO. There is quite a difference between THREAT and IMMINENT WAR. We should be able to understand both at the same time. So where did the current panic come from? European politicians and media created a perfect storm, (likely with the help of Russian assets) making deliberately strong statements, often for domestic political reasons. Russian intimidation and hybrid warfare is designed to frighten, divide and pacify Europe. Media/sm logic turns “NATO has plans for every contingency” into “NATO expects war any day now.” The NATO Military Committee chairman said the Alliance has 4,000 pages of plans covering everything from minor incidents to Article 5. That means NATO is doing its job. Not that war starts Tuesday. Governments need parliamentary support for defence, Ukraine aid and larger EU/NATO budgets. Russia is a real threat, so politicians are not inventing the danger. But there is an obvious temptation to use the most dramatic formulations available. Everyone exaggerates. Then Moscow adds more provocations and threats to the mix. And headlines strip away qualifications. Then algorithms reward the most frightening interpretation. Within minutes preparedness becomes prediction. Estonia’s intelligence assessment remains the same: Russia is dangerous and its military capabilities may grow, but we don't see that Russia intends to attack Estonia or another NATO country in the coming months. Believe me - we are watching very closely, literally. And we will not keep it to ourselves if we see something. We prepare. All of Europe needs to stop panicking and continue doing the same, seriously and calmly. And increase serious military aid to Ukraine. This is what the fight is about today. To make us wobble. Don't. Russia wants us uncertain, divided and sacred. Deterrence requires the opposite: strong defence, clear eyes and steady nerves. The one who stays calm wins the fight.
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Will Trump sacrifice Taiwan? According to Reuters reports, Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to press for an end to arms sales to Taiwan during his meeting with Trump this week. Will Trump seize this lifeline offered by Xi—and sacrifice Taiwan in the hope of somehow extricating himself from a difficult situation before the election? Theoretically, China can help by leveraging its influence over Tehran and the oil market. That is why Xi’s offer appears politically attractive to Trump—yet the price would be lasting damage to his credibility with Taiwan and Asian allies. Whether he pays that price depends on how acute he considers the midterm situation to be and how concrete a return Xi offers.
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Artis Pabriks retweeted
Dmitry Rogozin, a senator of the Russian Federation representing the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region, explains to MGIMO (top Russian university) students how Russian propaganda works. Russia spends enormous amounts of money on its propaganda machine, both inside Russia and around the world. I once wrote that Russian propaganda is more dangerous than an atomic bomb. And I still believe that is the case. The term “cognitive warfare” is widely used today. You can call it whatever you want, but Russian narratives and propaganda are deadly dangerous. They change reality by changing people’s positions and, consequently, their behavior. Russians are very skilled at delivering their narratives to the audiences they need to reach. They have the necessary technologies and an unlimited budget. They work with social media algorithms. They have controlled media outlets and the bought support of influencers. They target not only the masses, but also individuals who make key decisions. It is very important now, when everyone is exhausted and tired, not to underestimate the efforts to counter and fight Russia’s information machine. Every voice aimed at protecting people’s minds, critical thinking, and the information space from hostile manipulation, disinformation, and psychological pressure is important and critical. I'm grateful to everyone: politicians, journalists, bloggers, volunteers - everyone who continues to expose Russian manipulation, counter disinformation, critically verify information, and keeps the world informed with verified news every day. Friends, let’s stand together and do our job.
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Artis Pabriks retweeted
Kasparov: You cannot protect yourself completely from Russian sabotage and cyberattacks. The only defence is that whoever wants to attack you knows the answer will be something he will not enjoy. The West is not ready for that, and Putin reads it as weakness. 5X
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The Baltics’ intelligence and security services are also first class. They know what is happening to the east, and they act when there are internal issues - arresting or deporting troublemakers. There is NO hive of pro-Russian sentiment ready to welcome a hostile power.
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Tucker Carlson's favourite "political scientist", John Mearsheimer, and his ATROCIOUS predictions on the war in Ukraine: Feb. 2022: "I don't think Russia is going to invade." Sep. 2023: "The Ukrainians are doomed to lose." Jan. 2024: "It's ridiculous to think Ukraine can hold the line in 2024." Apr. 2025: "It's unimaginable Ukraine will hang on beyond 2025." Jul. 2026: "The Russians are slowly moving forward." The Jim Cramer of foreign policy predictions.
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Zinaida, a russian woman who lives in Finland: "I love Putin. I voted for him because he is the best and the smartest. Putin will end the "Ukrainian civil war" slowly but surely." However, she does not want to move to russia, as she would lose her Finnish social benefits. 🙃
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