Is Ethiopia heading into a civil war?
Ethiopia is a highly volatile nation-state with many stakes on the line. The fall of Abiy Ahmed may lead to the fragmentation of Ethiopia if the opposition groups cannot come to an agreement. Any fragmentation of Ethiopia would definitely serve the interests of Eritrea. It could also potentially benefit Egypt, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Sudan, Saudi Arabia, and Somalia, while it might negatively impact the UAE, Israel, Somaliland, and Hemeti in Sudan.
The seven opposition groups, such as the Amhara Fano National Movement, Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (Ugugumo), Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement, and Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement, have all come to an agreement and decided to oust Abiy Ahmed.
So, Abiy Ahmed has always wanted to turn Ethiopia into a giant bloc in other words a regional power. Can he survive this opposition? Possibly, yes, but things can get out of control if the wrong shots are called.
Ethiopia still has a strong soul as a tribal nation-state, and regional divides based on ethnic identity play a big role in Ethiopian politics. Basically, Abiy Ahmed is trying to modernize the state, but this can come at the behest of his opposition, whether they are political opponents or ordinary Ethiopians who want to maintain their ethnic and tribal identity intact.