Prev @mckinsey Writing on macro, markets, and where I think capital flows

New York, USA
Scary fucking chart
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probably not a bad time to buy btc
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I think I need to go to computex next year…
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Never seen so many 4 leg parlays on mag7 earnings 😂
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$intc earnings tomorrow. it will either make or destroy my q2
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Patrick Liu retweeted
Had drinks with 30 CTOs last night at an off-the-record gathering in Palo Alto Every single one showed me the same internal PowerPoint slide "2026 AI Headcount Targets: Path to 70% Cost Reduction" The numbers will make you physically sick Fintech CTO planning to cut 280-person engineering org down to 43 "AI orchestrators" by September. Same product roadmap. Same delivery expectations. Healthcare CTO already eliminated his entire manual QA department. 67 people. Replaced with 3 senior engineers running autonomous testing agents that ship code directly to production. SaaS CTO walked me through his "human depreciation timeline": 340 engineers today, 89 planned for 2027. Customer support going from 120 humans to 12 "escalation specialists" managing AI conversations. The most chilling part: they're all using the exact same consulting deck from McKinsey called "The 30% Organization" One CTO literally said "hiring humans for code is like hiring horses for transportation" Another showed me Slack screenshots where his L7s are asking if they should train their replacements The consensus was unanimous: if you can't manage 10 AI agents by Christmas, you're not making it to New Year's Every single one of them is planning to announce these cuts as "AI transformation success stories" While their stock options vest at record highs built on the backs of workers they're about to execute The future of engineering is 3 humans with 50 AI agents in a WeWork somewhere while 500 families lose their homes
Community note
The McKinsey deck "The 30% Organization" does not exist, and no verified reports confirm the claimed widespread 70% AI headcount reductions among CTOs. McKinsey has discussed modest changes like 25% role growth in some areas and 10% cuts in others. mckinsey.com finance.yahoo.com/news/mckinseys… bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Could not even imagine what markets will do if Trump announces a ground invasion on April fools, the timing literally could not be more ironic
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the only thing that can save this macro shit show is an @openseafdn token
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Man I would just short every carrier - how is sunlife lettermailing a $80k check with no tracking @SunLife
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Chinese State funds must be making a killing if they have satellite images over Hormuz?
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Patrick Liu retweeted
BREAKING: China’s government has ordered their largest oil refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports amid the Strait of Hormuz closure.
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Such an insane chart
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Wonder how wsb is doing this past week
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Patrick Liu retweeted
.@satyanadella on: - why he doesn’t believe in AGI but does believe in 10% economic growth - Microsoft’s new topological qubit breakthrough and gaming world models - whether Office commoditizes LLMs or the other way around Links below. Enjoy! Timestamps 0:00:00 - Intro 0:05:48 - AI won't be winner-take-all 0:16:02 - World economy growing by 10% 0:22:23 - Decreasing price of intelligence 0:31:03 - Microsoft's Quantum breakthrough 0:43:35 - Microsoft's gaming world model 0:50:35 - Legal barriers to AI 0:56:30 - Getting AGI safety right 1:05:43 - 34 years at Microsoft 1:11:31 - Does Satya Nadella believe in AGI?
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Patrick Liu retweeted
Introducing Cowork: Claude Code for the rest of your work. Cowork lets you complete non-technical tasks much like how developers use Claude Code.
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Has to be a better way than paying a 0.2% spread to buy foreign proxies of SK Hynix
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