Professor of Political Science @UNTDallas. Writes on civil-military relations, public opinion, democracy, Latin America
Dallas, TX
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Delighted to contribute to this @CIPR_Tulane working paper.
Venezuela’s Critical Juncture: Pushing for a Democratic Transition
The document is a multidisciplinary effort to examine the issues, sequencing & reforms needed to transition #Venezuela toward a stable & durable democracy. The effort brought scholars & practicioners from Venezuela, the United States & Europe.
Read: vcprn.tulane.edu/wp-content/…
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For the people in the back: responsiblestatecraft.org/tr…
🚨 ALANDETE LO ADVERTÍA EL 10 DE SEPTIEMBRE. HOY, EL ACUERDO PETROLERO ENFRENTA CUESTIONAMIENTOS LEGALES.
El periodista calificaba el pacto con Delcy, por medio de Alejandro Betancourt, como un “golpe durísimo” para el equipo de Trump.
Hoy, 2 de octubre, informa sobre una carta de cuatro senadores demócratas que cuestionan la autoridad legal para ejecutar operaciones centrales del acuerdo y advierten de acciones legislativas y legales.
También exigen esclarecer si Trump, su familia, donantes o funcionarios podrían beneficiarse económicamente.
¿Calcularon los barriles y olvidaron explicar la legalidad del negocio?
🎥 David Alandete | Declaraciones del 10 de septiembre. #Venezuela
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Two leading regional “barometers” were released this month: @LAPOP_Lab & @Latinobarometro. Both have value. I worked w/ the first for 30+ years, so I am a bit biased. However, the fact @Latinobarometro doesn’t release the actual data until years later is a shame. Their “exclusive” w/ @TheEconomist is also unfortunate. Social science research advances when we can have transparency & access to data that allows immediate replication of analyses. The @Latinobarometro should make their 2026 data available now. Their report & what the @TheEconomist published is not enough. And on top of it, they then trickle out findings not in the report (eg, populism findings). 🤔
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En #Panama solo el 15% piensa que el “populismo” es bueno.
Un dato que no se publicó en el informe que puede ser relevante para las elecciones de este domingo en Brasil, es la cantidad que opina que el populismo puede ser bueno para ese país.
En Brasil el 40% dice que es bueno, solo lo supera El Salvador con 43%.
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And now the report is online: latinobarometro.org/noticias…
The Trump Effect!
According to the most recent @Latinobarometro data (2025/26), 55% of Latin Americans consider @realDonaldTrump's policies to have a negative impact. Only in Venezuela and the Dominican Republic do majorities consider Trump's influence positive.
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Cara de cemento armado. Tengo que decirlo, el cinismo no me gusta en políticos de derecha y menos en los de la izquierda. Y este tipo es el político más cínico que hay.
📺 TV en DIRECTO | Sánchez insiste en que quien vote hoy "no" a los decretos de vivienda "serán culpables" y se dirige al PP y Junts: "Les pido que estén a la altura" social.elpais.com/j0qft
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The Trump Effect!
According to the most recent @Latinobarometro data (2025/26), 55% of Latin Americans consider @realDonaldTrump's policies to have a negative impact. Only in Venezuela and the Dominican Republic do majorities consider Trump's influence positive.
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In every country of the region, a majority (and often overwhelming) consider China's influencer to be "positive," including in the US's closest allies. Positive assessment of China's influence has grown from 48% in 2020 to 65% in 2025/26.
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As I wrote @RStatecraft, the Pentagon’s own spokesperson has said the Office of Strategic Capital is confined to loans and guarantees and cannot take an ownership stake in private companies. This deal has more holes than Swiss cheese!
Senate Democrats are challenging the legality and prudence of the Pentagon’s plan to take a stake in a Venezuelan oil company, laying the groundwork for a potential probe into the arrangement. on.wsj.com/3Vm6NcM
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Can we stop arguing that those who said Venezuela could become Iraq were wrong? The administration deliberately chose a course of action to avoid Iraq. They thought Venezuela could become Iraq had they carried out regime change. So they didn’t! @ChrisSabatini @WillGFreeman
Trump to @EricCortellessa on Venezuela: “When President Bush knocked out Iraq, everybody got fired. There was nobody to run it. I did the opposite. I didn't fire the police. I didn't fire the armies. And Delcy was the one that was in charge of things. We work well together. Even now.”
time.com/article/2026/10/01/…
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Orlando J. Pérez retweeted
“They have surrendered this country and surrendered it the most vile and despicable way,” Mario Silva said in one recent broadcast. “Honestly, they are dragging the country’s name through the mud. They are dragging Chávez’s name through the mud” theguardian.com/world/2026/o…
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But Pérez believed that for many Chavistas who had remained in power after Trump’s invasion, the “pragmatic reality” was that working with Washington was “a necessary evil” if it meant keeping Venezuela’s opposition out of power. Thanks @tomphillipsin @guardian.
theguardian.com/world/2026/o…
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Trump calls #Cuba a failed state, @SecRubio offers talks on a transition, and Havana calls the embargo a siege, but the opinion of regular Cubans has not mattered to either side.
Using @LAPOP_Lab data, I write in @amerquarterly about what Cubans want.
americasquarterly.org/articl…
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It was a pleasure to present results from the @LAPOP_Lab 2026 AmericasBarometer for #Panama at the INED @tepanama. Support for democracy rises to 65%; satisfaction with democracy at 32%: a 33-point gap! Second highest dissatisfaction in 2026. Only Haiti exceeds #Panama in dissatisfaction w/ democracy in 2026.
Exposición del politólogo @Perez1oj de la @UNTsocial en el INED del @tepanama sobre el tema “Legitimidad democrática y tentaciones autoritarias en Panamá, 2004–2026" en base a estudios de opinión pública. ¡Gracias por la presentación y la enriquecedora discusión posterior!
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On Sept. 21 at the @UN, Latin American nations agreed the next secretary-general should be from Latin America. The next day, 14 of those same governments signed "Defending Hemispheric Sovereignty" w/ Washington!
As I argue @WorldPolitics, the region agrees only when it costs nothing. On sovereignty, each government speaks for itself: @LulaOficial bars foreign forces from Brazilian soil, @delcyrodriguezv thanks the man whose act of war put her in office, and Costa Rica's @laurapresi2026 fires her FM for leaving her out of the room w/ @realDonaldTrump.
Washington writes the terms of the Trump Corollary, and governments sign on or stay away one at a time, so the region's citizens live w/ decisions on trade & the use of force made w/o their input.
worldpoliticsreview.com/un-l…
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Yes! This has been obvious from the start: Machado is a red line for chavistas. For the US the return of Machado is way down the list of priorities (like waaaay down). If the price of getting Delcy to comply is keeping Machado in Panama, that’s cheap for the US. And anyone who thinks otherwise doesn’t know the US & doesn’t know Trump. 🤷🏻♂️
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