Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to Senate since 1932. This poll suggests that could change. 🇰🇸 Kansas Senate 2026 🔵 Adam Hamilton (D): 45% 🔴 Roger Marshall (R, inc.): 43% Hamilton leads independents 42-27. 2024: Trump +20 Emerson #A | Kansas | Nexstar

Trump hits a record low with American Research Group: just 29% approve / 68% disapprove — a net of -39. Poll asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? (Source: American Research Group, Registered Voters, Sept. 20, 2026)

Susan Collins is in the fight of her political life. The incumbent Republican leads by just 3 points in Maine with 6 weeks to go. Collins 49% vs. Jackson 46% Q: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for? (Source: NYT/Siena, N=619 Likely Voters, Sept. 15–22, 2026)

Montana Republicans are running away with the Senate race, but their House candidate in CD-1 is locked in a dead heat. That gap tells a story. 2026 Montana Senate & House 🔴 Kurt Alme (R, Senate): 57% 🔵 Seth Bodnar (D, Senate): 38% 🔴 Aaron Flint (R, House CD-1): 48% 🔵 Sam Forstag (D, House CD-1): 47% 2024: Trump +20 Pollfinity #C | Sept 19–24 | Likely midterm voters

Montana Republicans are running up the score in 2026, but there's a crack in the map. 2026 Montana Senate 🔴 Kurt Alme: 57% 🔵 Seth Bodnar: 38% 2024: Trump +20 2026 Montana CD-1 🔴 Aaron Flint: 48% 🔵 Sam Forstag: 47% Pollfinity #C | Sept 19-24

Republicans turning on Trump faster than Democrats. His net approval among GOP voters hit a second-term low. Trump Net Approval Change (Since 2nd Term Start) 🔴 Republicans: -37 (second-term low) 🔵 Democrats: -21 ⚪ U.S. adults: -31 Economist/YouGov #A | U.S. adult citizens

North Carolina leans red but rejects Trump in new 2026 Senate matchup. 2026 North Carolina Senate 🔵 Roy Cooper (D): 54% 🔴 Michael Whatley (R): 41% Trump approval in NC: 🔴 Disapprove: 60% 🔵 Approve: 39% YouGov #A | 9/15-9/18 | LV

Vermont's governor race just reversed course. Scott back on top after Janoo led within margin of error last week. 2026 Vermont Governor Race 🔴 Phil Scott (R-inc): [X]% 🔵 Amanda Janoo (D): [Y]% Vermont Public #C | [dates needed] Why it matters: Movement this sharp in a week is rare. Either one poll is an outlier, or this race is tighter than GOP expectations for Vermont.

Democrat leads GOP incumbent in traditionally Republican Iowa, signaling 2026 Senate vulnerability 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate Race 🔵 Josh Turek: 50% 🔴 Ashley Hinson: 42% 2024: Trump +13 Marist University #A | n=1050 | registered voters | Sept 17–20, 2026

🚨 BREAKING FROM POLLFINITY: 2026 Pennsylvania Governor Race 🟢 Josh Shapiro (D, inc.): 58% 🔴 Stacy Garrity (R): 38% NYT/Siena | n=615 | Likely Voters | 9/15-22/26 Shapiro leads by 20 points; his +27 job approval towers over Trump's -29 in the battleground state.

MT-01 is a dead heat, but the real story is the Libertarian standing at 5%—high enough to matter in a race this close. 2026 MT-01 House Race 🔴 Aaron Flint (R): 45.9% 🔵 Sam Forstag (D): 45.4% 🟡 Nick Sheedy (L): 5.4% American Pulse Research #C | LV | 9/19-24

Nearly a third of seniors accept restricting press access based on coverage—largest generational divide on a core First Amendment issue. Press Access Restrictions 🔴 Acceptable: 22% 🔵 Unacceptable: 56% By age: 18-29: 16% | 30-44: 19% | 45-64: 24% | 65+: 30% YouGov #A | n=6,528 | U.S. adults | Sept 24-25, 2026

Democrats' generic ballot lead just hit a cycle high, widening 11 points since 2022. 2026 Generic Ballot 🔵 Democrats: 51% 🔴 Republicans: 39% Trend: Oct. 2018 D+6 → Oct. 2022 R+1 → Sept. 2026 D+12 YouGov/Economist #A | Sept. 2026

Prediction market movers don't always follow the polls. Abbott's Polymarket odds jumped from 77.4% to 83.4% over the weekend with no new data—suggesting traders see something the latest surveys don't. Texas Governor Race 🔴 Greg Abbott: 83.4% (Polymarket) 🔵 Colin Allred: TBD 2024: Trump +14 Source: Prediction Labs

🚨 BREAKING FROM POLLFINITY: Top Issues for Democrats 🟢 Inflation/prices: 28% 🟢 Health care: 13% 🟢 Jobs and the economy: 13% 🟢 Civil rights: 10% 🔴 Immigration: 3% Economist/YouGov | Sep 18-21 | U.S. Democrats (Other/unsure: 33%)

Graham's margin in SC just collapsed to 1 point. In a state Trump wins by 18, that's the real story. 🔴 Lindsey Graham: 43% 🔵 Eugene Andrews: 42% 🟡 Other: 6% 2024: Trump +18 Trafalgar #C | LV | 9/25/2024

Democrat opens narrow lead in Republican-held Iowa Senate seat 2026 Iowa Senate Race 🔵 Josh Turek (D): 47% 🔴 Ashley Hinson (R): 46% 🟡 Undecided: 7% InsiderAdvantage #C | 9/23/2024

North Carolina Senate shows a double-digit Democratic advantage in a traditionally contested state. 🇳🇨 Senate Race 🔵 Roy Cooper: 53% 🔴 Michael Whatley: 42% Generic Ballot 🔵 Democrats: 52% 🔴 Republicans: 42% Fabrizio (R)/Impact (D) for AARP #C | LV | 9/17-20

Michigan Senate is genuinely volatile. Same race, same month, completely different stories depending on who's polling. 2024 Michigan Senate 🔴 Mike Rogers: 44.4% 🔵 Abdulrahman El-Sayed: 43.1% Torchlight #B | n=643 | LV | Sept. 15–19 But Suffolk has El-Sayed +7. NYT/Siena has him +5. co/efficient shows it tied. That spread matters.

Moody's 11-point lead over Nixon suggests a decisive advantage in Florida's 2026 gubernatorial race at this stage. Florida Governor (2026) 🔵 Ashley Moody: 51% 🔴 Angie Nixon: 40% 🟡 Undecided: 9% Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research #C | n=830 | likely voters | Sept 14-21, 2026

📋 POLLFINITY TODAY — Monday, September 28 Here's what we're dropping: 🏛️ 2026 Florida 📊 Top Issues for Democrats (Sept 18-21, 2026) (YouGov) 🗳️ 2026 Generic Ballot 📊 Press Access Restrictions by Presidential Administration 🔴 PENNSYLVANIA POLL - Governor 🟦 Josh Shapiro (inc): 58% 🟥 Stacy (NYT/Siena) 🔴 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate Race 🔴 YouGov poll | 9/15-9/18 LV US Senate North Carolina 2026 🟦Roy 🔴 Donald Trump 🔴 📊 YouGov/Economist poll (likely voters) Trump job approval 🏛️ MAINE POLL - Senate 🟥 Susan Collins (inc): 49% 🟦 Troy Jackso (NYT/Siena) 🔴 Trump job approval 🟢 Approve: 29% 🟤 Disapprove: 68% Lowest a (American Research Group) All data from real polls. No spin. Follow @Pollfinity for live updates 👇