Tracking the companies, deals, and infrastructure shaping US prediction markets. FCMs | IBs | DCMs | DCOs | Partnerships
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@OG_com (NADEX) asked the CFTC today to approve rules for perpetual single-stock futures: cash-settled, no expiry, 1-share contracts, 24/5 trading, and a funding rate paid between longs and shorts.
NADEX filed with the SEC 9/14 to register as an exchange for security futures, which under the Exchange Act is effective on filing.
CFTC filing:
cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I…
SEC filing:
sec.gov/files/rules/other/20…
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In its conflicts-of-interest analysis, DKeX says the change "will reduce rebate expense and result in the collection of the generally applicable Combination Contract Maker Fee."
It adds that "those financial effects do not displace the regulatory basis for the decision."
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Today DKeX (@DKPredictions) filed to end its combos market maker rebates and maker fee waiver, from Oct 7.
The stated reason: participating firms "would be profitable on Combination Contracts even before application of those incentives."
DKeX Submission #26-28
cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I…
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Today CFTC staff defined "Mention Markets": will a named person say a word, show up, shake a hand. DMO staff may view them as presumptively readily susceptible to manipulation under Core Principle 3 and expect a heightened showing on materiality, scrutiny, insider controls. No. 26-27
cftc.gov/csl/26-27/download
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'@coinbase has a new DCO filing that hit the CFTC website today backdated to 11/14/2025.
Per the exhibits:
-Fully collateralized
-Would clear for DCMs and SEFs that agree to its rules
-Direct clearing access, plus FCM customers
cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I…
This appears to be the application The Clearing Company filed in Nov 2025 (but never appeared on the CFTC site), pitched as a stablecoin-native clearinghouse for prediction markets. Coinbase announced the acquisition of the Clearing Company in December 2025.
The exhibits show it renamed and 100% under Coinbase Global. They name no products.
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New NFA filing: Hypestrat Markets LLC (NFA ID 0581525) filed as a pending Futures Commission Merchant on 9/14/26. Address is 477 Madison Ave 22F, NYC — same as Hyperliquid Strategies (@HyperliquidX ) HQ.
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'@ProphetX appears to be expanding outside of sports: The CFTC website shows nine (9) political-related self-certifications have been submitted as of this morning. (Backdated to 9/2).
cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I…
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The CFTC updated its DCO page this morning to reflect @Underdog's name ("Underdog Clearinghouse, Inc" vs "Aristotle DCO, Inc." previously).
cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I…
The DCM still shows as Aristotle, but one would expect a similar change is in the works.
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Forum's (@forumdotmarket) DCO filing was listed on the CFTC website today backdated to August 3.
cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I…
A new DCM applicant appeared this morning, per a CFTC update. ForumEx filed for a DCM (ForumEx LLC) on Friday (8/21). Per the rulebook, it appears a DCO application is forthcoming (Forum Clearing LLC).
Link to CFTC page: cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I…
Link to rulebook: cftc.gov/filings/documents/2…
Link to information on the company behind it: ycombinator.com/companies/fo…
forum.market/
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A new DCM applicant appeared this morning, per a CFTC update. ForumEx filed for a DCM (ForumEx LLC) on Friday (8/21). Per the rulebook, it appears a DCO application is forthcoming (Forum Clearing LLC).
Link to CFTC page: cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I…
Link to rulebook: cftc.gov/filings/documents/2…
Link to information on the company behind it: ycombinator.com/companies/fo…
forum.market/
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After withdrawing a self-cert on Kalshi's monthly notional traded volume, @ProphetX filed a new market on whether Kalshi's event contract notional traded volume will exceed $30 billion this month. Trading could be offered as early as today, per the filing.
cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I… (new)
cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I… (withdrawn)
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It appears @fliff has plans to join the event contracts party - new FCM application filed this afternoon (in addition to Swap Firm/NFA membership).
nfa.futures.org/BasicNet/bas…
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It appears that DKeX (@DKPredictions) Combos have arrived. The self-certification states:
"This submission shall become certified by August 11, 2026, and the Contracts will be listed for trading on the Exchange thereafter."
cftc.gov/filings/ptc/ptc0807…
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The week is young, but most interesting self-certifcation so far:
Will an alternative wage for Californian goat herders be authorized <time period>?
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The deadline wave has landed on the CFTC's event-contract data reporting NPRM (Parts 15–18, RIN 3038-AF73) — 11 new comment letters posted, including:
• Kalshi
• DraftKings
• CME Group
• ICE
• Coinbase Derivatives
• Sporttrade
• FIA
• Coalition for Prediction Markets
Full record available on our website:
predictionmarketpulse.com/co…
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🚨 Don't forget 🚨 While most eyes were on the prediction markets NPRM that closed Monday evening, a second CFTC comment window closes tonight at 11:59 PM ET: the Data Reporting Requirements for Certain Event Contracts NPRM.
Far fewer filings — but notable names are on the record: @Robinhood Derivatives, Rothera, and @Novig .
We're tracking every filing at our comments hub: predictionmarketpulse.com/co…
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CFTC Orders George Santos to Pay $35,000 for Manipulative Trading of State-of-the-Union Event Contract.
cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressRele…
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Well, this seems like pretty big news... 👀
IG Group Holdings plc ("IG", "the Group") announces that it has agreed to acquire @Underdog for total consideration of up to approximately $1.3 billion.
otp.tools.investis.com/clien…
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The CFTC has proposed new rules aimed at addressing potential conflicts of interest as vertically integrated market structures become more common across DCMs, DCOs, SEFs, FCMs, and affiliated market makers.
Public comments will be open for 60 days after publication in the Federal Register.
cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressRele…
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