Institutional grade, prediction market data and trading infrastructure.
- Tweets 1,500
- Following 45
- Followers 11,168
- Likes 16,267
Pinned Tweet
Predictefy Public Beta is Live.
Trade, track, arbitrage and compare every prediction market, in one place.
Trade responsibly.
152
68
494
128,703
Predictefy retweeted
Polymarket has 50% more crypto open interest, while Kalshi is generating 11.3x more notional volume.
We broke down the data across open interest, notional volume, and short-duration executed flow.
A deep dive into Kalshi vs Polymarket across crypto prediction markets. 🧵
5
5
39
1,419
Polymarket has 50% more crypto open interest, while Kalshi is generating 11.3x more notional volume.
We broke down the data across open interest, notional volume, and short-duration executed flow.
A deep dive into Kalshi vs Polymarket across crypto prediction markets. 🧵
5
5
39
1,419
7/ The Kalshi OI breakdown explains part of the apparent disconnect.
Across the Sept. 1–20 EOD sample:
• Long-dated OI averaged $22.20M
• Hourly OI averaged $0.95M
• Pre-TGE OI averaged just $0.03M
• Total crypto OI averaged $23.18M
Long-dated markets therefore represented roughly 96% of average Kalshi crypto OI.
Meanwhile, the shortest-duration markets closed with zero EOD OI on every measured day.
So a large amount of Kalshi’s short-duration volume is generated, settled and disappears from OI.
1
6
74
8/ That creates a clear structural divergence:
Polymarket has the larger total crypto OI: $38.57M vs $25.63M.
But Kalshi dominates short-duration turnover: $2.76B vs $227.94M over Sept. 1–21.
In other words:
Kalshi’s crypto market-share advantage is being driven heavily by short-duration turnover that does not remain in open interest after settlement.
Polymarket, by contrast, carries more outstanding crypto exposure while generating materially less short-duration flow.
Aggregate OI and volume establish that divergence.
They do not, by themselves, determine whether the excess turnover is organic, incentive-driven, or wash activity.
10
68
Polymarket US has flipped Polymarket notional volume for the first time.
September Notional Volume:
1. Polymarket US - $2,994,169,131
2. Polymarket - $2,270,776,406
It comes as Polymarket ramps up efforts to scale its US business, with NFL season driving a new wave of sports-market activity.
Polymarket has also climbed to the top of the sports app download charts.
Source: predictefy.com/en/analytics
3
3
35
1,117
Predictefy retweeted
best odds only possible on @predofficial.
$100 on Chelsea to beat Arsenal.
Payouts on prediction markets vs sportsbooks:
1. @SX_Bet - $533
2. @predofficial - $526
3. @bet_105 - $517
4. @Novig - $513
5. @ProphetX - $512
6. @Polymarket - $505
7. @FanDuel - $500
8. @Kalshi - $496
9. @predictdotfun - $490
10. @Duelbits - $490
11. @DraftKings - $490
12. @Stake - $490
13. @trylimitless - $477
14. @Bet365 - $475
15. @Betfair - $471
Prediction markets currently offer some of the strongest Chelsea moneyline payouts, with SX Bet leading at $533.
Among sportsbooks, Duel Bits offers the highest payout at $500.
3
4
31
2,837
$100 on Chelsea to beat Arsenal.
Payouts on prediction markets vs sportsbooks:
1. @SX_Bet - $533
2. @predofficial - $526
3. @bet_105 - $517
4. @Novig - $513
5. @ProphetX - $512
6. @Polymarket - $505
7. @FanDuel - $500
8. @Kalshi - $496
9. @predictdotfun - $490
10. @Duelbits - $490
11. @DraftKings - $490
12. @Stake - $490
13. @trylimitless - $477
14. @Bet365 - $475
15. @Betfair - $471
Prediction markets currently offer some of the strongest Chelsea moneyline payouts, with SX Bet leading at $533.
Among sportsbooks, Duel Bits offers the highest payout at $500.
14
5
84
12,205
Kalshi dominated August prediction market notional volume, doing 3.6x more volume than the other 10 platforms combined.
August Notional Volume:
1. @Kalshi - $40.03B
2. @Polymarket - $4.59B
3. @Polymarket (US) - $3.83B
4. @cryptocom -$968.18M
5. @opinionlabsxyz - $739.75M
6. @RotheraMarkets - $524.26M
7. @predictdotfun - $417.47M
8. @trylimitless - $96.24M
9. @SX_Bet - $59.82M
10. @Predictstreet - $35.69M
11. @HyperliquidX - $11.54M
Across 11 tracked venues, August notional volume reached $51.30B.
Polymarket and Polymarket US combined for $8.42B. The US venue contributed 45.5% of that total and reached 83.5% of the main platform’s volume.
The top three venues accounted for 94.4% of all tracked activity, leaving just $2.85B for the remaining eight platforms.
Cryptocom, Opinion, Rothera and Predict Fun, formed the middle tier, combining for $2.65B.
The remaining venues generated $203.29M combined, less than 0.4% of total tracked volume.
4
3
34
1,647
Predictefy retweeted
Big arbitrage opportunity on the GTA 6 market.
Buy Yes on Polymarket: 12.9¢
Buy No on Kalshi: 74.0¢
Resolves in less then 48 hours...
New GTA 6 Arbitrage Opportunity
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30m:
1. YES on Polymarket: 8¢
2. NO on Kalshi: 74¢
Resolves in less than 48 hours.
3
2
28
1,072
New GTA 6 Arbitrage Opportunity
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30m:
1. YES on Polymarket: 8¢
2. NO on Kalshi: 74¢
Resolves in less than 48 hours.
5
34
2,894
CAUTION: The 18% spread is before fees and slippage.
Predictefy calculates the estimated return, liquidity, orderbook depth, jump risk, and fees before you trade.
predictefy.com/en/arbitrage
7
439
Predictefy retweeted
Bad at trading prediction markets => building the arbitrage tool everyone wanted with a 30K email waitlist.
Catch the 3-min origin story of @Predictefy 👇
2
4
7
1,468
Prediction market notional volume surged during the World Cup, and average weekly volume is still 50.1% higher than before the tournament began.
Pre vs. Post-World Cup Notional Volume:
1, @HyperliquidX +328.4%
2, @Kalshi +96.1%
3, @Polymarket (US) +87.2%
4. @opinionlabsxyz +17.0%
5. @MyriadMarkets -10.6%
6. @Polymarket -46.2%
7. @predictdotfun -63.2%
8. @trylimitless -88.9%
Hyperliquid recorded the largest post-World Cup expansion, with average weekly notional volume up 328.4% from its pre-tournament baseline.
Across leading venues, average weekly notional volume rose from $7.03B pre-World Cup to a peak of $16.03B during the tournament, and remains at $10.55B post-World Cup.
The World Cup spike has cooled, but prediction market activity has not returned to its previous baseline.
Behind Hyperliquid, Kalshi and Polymarket US retained the strongest gains, up 96.1% and 87.2% respectively.
The World Cup wasn’t just a temporary volume spike.
It appears to have left prediction markets operating at a materially higher level than before.
To measure the World Cup effect, we compared average weekly notional volume across leading venues in the month before kickoff with the averages during and after the tournament.
4
4
45
2,742
Prediction market notional volume more than doubled during the World Cup, reaching $16.03B in a single week at the tournament peak.
World Cup Peak Weekly Notional Volume:
1. @Kalshi - $9.80B
2.@Polymarket - $3.50B
3. @Polymarket (US) - $1.15B
4. @predictdotfun - $550M
5. @trylimitless - $550M
6. @opinionlabsxyz - $340M
7. @HyperliquidX - $135.46M
8. @MyriadMarkets - $315K
At its peak, weekly notional volume was roughly 128% above the $7.03B pre-World Cup average.
Kalshi alone reached $9.8B, while Polymarket and Polymarket US combined generated another $4.65B
The World Cup became one of the clearest volume catalysts prediction markets have seen.
Source: predictefy.com
1
1
12
171
Across leading prediction market venues, average weekly notional volume remains at $10.55B post-World Cup, 50.1% above pre-tournament levels.
Post-World Cup Weekly Notional Volume:
1. @Kalshi - $8.41B
2. @Polymarket - $860M
3. @Polymarket (US) - $820M
4. @HyperliquidX - $183.49M
5. @opinionlabsxyz - $180M
6. @predictdotfun - $70M
7. @trylimitless - $30M
8. @MyriadMarkets - $1.10M
The World Cup spike has cooled, but prediction market activity has not returned to its previous baseline.
Hyperliquid stands out as the biggest post-tournament mover, with average weekly notional volume now 328.4% above its pre-World Cup level.
The tournament appears to have left prediction markets operating at a materially higher volume baseline than before.
Source: predictefy.com
9
123