I’ve been hearing the analogy between $NVDA and $AAPL — the argument effectively is that Apple reshaped the supply chain in its own image and this served as a sustainable competitive advantage. And that $NVDA is currently doing the same. I think it’s an interesting concept. However, the core of Apple’s moat is/was that switching costs are high for the users. iOS, Photos, App Store, iMessages, Settings, etc. The lock in is at the software layer, not the device layer. The supply chain is additive, but it isn’t the core of the moat. Right now the largest consumers of compute are frontier labs and hyperscalers, who all have the resources to develop custom ASICs and build towards a future of heterogeneous compute. $NVDA’s “extreme co-design” is effectively an argument that “we will persistently outrun everyone.” Higher fungibility and financiability are also nice to have — but neither of these provide the same degree of ecosystem lock-in as CUDA or iOS. Especially not in a world where your primary “users” are willing to throw inordinate amounts of capital and resources at eroding your economics. And particularly not in a world where the “shape” of future workloads is constantly changing to a degree that advantages experimentation in chip design.
I have a long list of parallels between Apple when they were the center of gravity fueling the industry to NVIDIA having the same role today but just a point on using balance sheet as competitive advantage. Apple did it also but was B2C. This dynamic is interesting when it's B2B2B.
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@BenBajarin @GavinSBaker why am I wrong?

Sep 5, 2026 · 3:19 PM UTC

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There is a much longer response required but there are a few things I’d say. First I don’t think you have the moats right. What the true customer value is is much deeper. There is also a strong platform story. Why is the App Store an economic miracle (Cook’s words). Second why was Apple not disrupted by competition even that was the broad consensus. There is a degree of this is peoples assumptions of NVIDIA currently even if they aren’t aware of their logic around it. The supply chain dynamic is just a subset of all the compounding sustainable advantages allowing them to have near guaranteed scale and growth that gets the supply chain to do what they want.
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