Here's the problem with energy export bans... Countries that import energy prioritize sources based on price, reliability and security. The lower price, the better, obviously. But importers don't just choose on price. Reliability is whether the system can meet peak needs. Energy demand fluctuates, sometimes significantly. Winter Storm Uri was an extreme event in the US. Countries place high value on creating a system of suppliers and built infrastructure that can flex to meet those events. Security is broader. It asks whether a country has dependable access to supplies at reasonable costs despite geopolitical, infrastructure, or economic turmoil. One way to reduce that vulnerability is to secure supplies through long-term agreements with allies, even if they are somewhat more expensive. After Russia invaded Ukraine, and also during tariff negotiations, the US raised its hand. We said: 'Buy from us. You can trust us to deliver the combination of affordability, reliability, and security that others can't.' And they did. Europe and East Asia increased their purchases. The US has become a trusted supplier of energy to many countries. At least it has been. Calls for a domestic ban on diesel exports in response to high prices threaten that. The US can't claim to offer reliable and secure supplies if we change the rules stop delivering supplies they rely on when markets become stressed. Will countries still buy our energy if we price it low? yes. But they won’t buy the same quantities or pay the same premiums for American products if that supply becomes effectively interruptible whenever domestic politics become uncomfortable. The US isn’t the lowest-cost producer. The American energy industry prospers by offering the combination of price, reliability, and security that importers value. That reputation took years to build. Even discussing whether we will honor it during periods of stress risks diminishing its value.

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