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I usually don't make predictions but I have a feeling that they will hold the stock market up until the midterms, then if the democrats win, the market will realize that Trumpism is over and that's when the real selling could start. The stock market run up into higher rates could be the bull trap of the decade. This is not financial advice and I could be completely wrong. But personally, I'm going into the midterms ~40%+ cash. This is just not the type of environment you want to be taking swings in. As I've become more experienced in investing, I've learned that there are times when you it makes sense to be in and times when it makes sense to be out. You can't be in all the time if you want to make a living doing this. In other words, I will be waiting until CNBC runs their 'markets in turmoil' chyron before jumping in again with both feet.

You wouldn't know it if you looked at the S&P500 average but we are now up to 8 days in a row where there are more stocks at 52-week lows than 52-week highs. The average keeps going up but its a smaller and smaller number of companies holding it up.

End the war.

A day will come when the market realizes that AI is massively overinvested. Capex will slow, forward guidance will be slashed, tech stocks will crash. Then come the bailouts and stimulus. Be prepared for that day, because it will be a generational wealth creation opportunity.

You can’t ’inflate the debt away’ if you can’t sell treasury bonds at low interest rates.

There is no longer an achievable strategic objective in Iran. There is no plan. There’s ’getting through the midterms’, ‘keeping the donors happy’, and ‘making sure the sovereign bond holders don’t sell’.

Worth remembering that Saudi Arabia told the US to pound sand at the beginning of the Iran war when we needed bases and airspace to launch attacks from and run escorts through the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia is in an existential crisis because they chose to bomb the Sanaa airport after a delegation of Houthis attended the Ayatollah’s funeral in Iran. Arguably the worst foreign policy blunder in the last 10 years.

The reason that oil is passing through the Strait of Hormuz is almost certainly because the Iranians have cut deals with the Gulf nations to allow their tankers through, NOT because of the ability of the Americans to force escort them through.

It makes me sad to watch Trump throw away his legacy in Iran but at the end of the day he made his own choices. Still support him, hope for the best, but he let slip an opportunity to be a man of history. From a realist perspective, it’s time to move on.

Reminder that the Houthis fought against Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and that 15 of the 19 9/11 hijackers were Saudi.

Due to the war in Iran, the US is no longer in a position where it conducts military interventions to improve its geopolitical positioning but instead to protect its sovereign bond holders. This war continues to be a US foreign policy disaster and is only getting worse.

Military industrial complex cutouts and their corresponding paid influencers are screeching that 'Iran is just about to fold!', as Riyadh is bombed, the East/West pipeline is blown up, Iraqi militias organize, and MBS begs China for diplomatic help. Same playbook as Ukraine.

China sits back and does nothing but watch as we blow trillions of dollars in Ukraine and Iran. These wars force us to issue trillions of dollars in new sovereign bonds (at high rates) raising our debt/GDP, creating an economic doom loop. In the end, we’ll have done it to ourselves. China will win without even raising a finger. US foreign policy needs to change ASAP.

With the Houthis closing the Red Sea, it is now painfully obvious that US decision-makers didn’t even consider the possibility that tankers could be blocked from both seas. Saudi is now at serious risk of falling. US media and paid-off ‘Middle East experts’ won’t tell you this.

The vast majority of ‘geopolitical analysts’ are just propagandists for whoever funds the company/NGO they work for/founded. It’s a classic conflict of interest because they know that if their analysis goes against their donors interests, they won’t fund them anymore.

Karp: “The only way to deal with this kind of liability is to go to the government and say, ‘Nationalize us, please.’ In business, people don’t say what they want. They’re leading you to the conclusion.” The 'AI safety' narrative is a complete scam.

During the Cold War, former CIA Director John Brennan voted for Gus Hall, the Communist Party presidential candidate, then later went on to lead the Russiagate op against President Trump. Can't make this stuff up.

If anyone is to ever ‘regulate’ anyone else, it should be the beautiful and the strong regulating the ugly and the weak. If we want to be successful, we can't allow a coalition of freaks with insane philosophical beliefs be in charge of anything important.

Look at these clowns. This is who Anthropic wants to ‘regulate’ them. Lmao.