CIO & Founder | Equities + Macro + Vol. Critical Rationalism. Complexity. Humanism. Bold conjectures, conditionally held. 🇦🇺 🇬🇧 🇬🇷 🇮🇱 🌻🦁🌞 🏉 🥊 🏊
London, England
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Advocating for: Humanism, universalism, liberty, free inquiry, reason, rationalism, open society, secularism, pluralism, truth-seeking and science.
Supporting: the Enlightenment, the West, Israel and Iranian freedom.
Arguing against all tyrannies of mind & state: Islamism, fanaticism, totalitarianism, pseudoscience, Marxism, intersectionalism, historicism, scientism, and all dogma that fears criticism.
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Judaism is an indigenous religion. It is inseparable from the land of Israel. We are celebrating Sukkot, a holiday that commemorates going into that land. We are shaking the four species that are indigenous to that land. When somebody says that they are anti-Zionist, they don’t understand the essence of Judaism. You cannot separate Jewish culture, religion, and tradition from Israel. Happy Sukkot, everyone.
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Indignum enim est excellentium virorum horas servili calculandi labore perire, qui machina adhibita vilissimo cuique secure transcribi posset.
It is unworthy of great minds to waste hours like slaves calculating, when machines could do it.
—Leibniz, 1685
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Almost every response to this was "but debt to GDP is high!". It turns out that the debt to GDP research has no reliably predictive value for developed world sovereigns. And it wasn't even the causal factor of defaults for the nations that the cited research reported.
See my newest research piece here:
ria.disciplinefunds.com/2026…
Lots of scary talk in bonds these days, but it's mostly recency bias. Since 1960 the 10 year yield has averaged 5.8%. We're at 5% - below average. If you'd fallen asleep 20 years ago and woke up today you'd think nothing happened in the bond market the entire time.
Ignore all the sovereign debt crisis talk. Inflation expectations are adjusting to something more historically normalized. Carry on.
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Background: I am co-teaching (with Kent Daniel) a grad course at Columbia titled "Quantitative Investing". I can share my slides, starting with the ones on market structure (ch.1 in my 2nd book). Below are a few representative slides.
I will share the lecture on linear return models this weekend.
At some point also one lecture on very high-dimensional linear models, which are interesting.
For now link to first deck is in reply. Enjoy.
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So, part of the pro-Palestine crowd has learned that the child killed by a Russian drone in Kyiv had an Israeli citizenship and their empathy magically disappeared
Adorable
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Cambridge is no longer planning to investigate Jason Arday’s academic record or the university’s decision to hire or cover for him.
Instead, the investigation will focus on “his welfare, his care, his well-being” and “whether the school offered him sufficient support amid accusations that he plagiarized.”
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You guys ready for an AI Vaccine?
“Bill Gates Says AI Powerful Enough to Lead to ‘a Billion Deaths’”
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Yesterday, Miliband met with Iran's Foreign Minister and did not mention the January massacre of protesters. A few days before that, he announced military assistance to Saudi Arabia, which just sentenced a Sri Lankan guestworker to death for blasphemy. All very morally serious.
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Russia killed a 14-year-old boy in Kyiv. In broad daylight. In his own room.
On his desk, there was a notebook with unfinished homework.
A Russian drone crashed into his home — straight through the window of his room.
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Will 5.0% be the ceiling for the nominal Treasury yield? Maybe not, but for bond investors the risk-reward math has gotten considerably better. The 5% yield provides such a good cushion that if the 10-year yield were to fall 100 bps, an investor would make 11.9%, while only losing 1.9% if the yield were to rise to 6%.
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I welcome every genuine improvement, but would like to be a little more inspired... $MSFT
We’re building Copilot as a new OS for work that spans every model, every form factor, and every task. Today, we’re announcing our biggest update to Copilot to date, bringing four things together:
· Autopilot: proactive and long-running agent built for the enterprise
· Code: build apps with Copilot, hosted inside your company’s tenant
· Home: Chat + Cowork together
· Office: now fully embedded in Copilot (and Copilot embedded in Office, of course!)
Plus, you can invoke Copilot in Teams, and we’re introducing Today, a proactive experience that surfaces the most important information from across M365 without needing to ask for it.
The way we work is changing and so are our workflows. This update brings AI into that flow, from answering a question, to building an app, to getting work done on your behalf.
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.@DanBurmawy with @richard_landes highlight the intolerance of Islam to criticism and its impact on society. piped.video/dmtoJvs3oP4?is=BE_-…
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🚨 MOSSADIL ASKS: THE IRANIAN RAPPER DEFYING THE IRGC
Tony Mohraz (@021kidd), born and raised in Tehran, joins MossadIL Asks for one of the most fascinating conversations we’ve had yet.
We discuss:
• Growing up under the Iranian regime
• Being taught “Death to Israel” as a child
• Why Israelis became some of his biggest supporters
• The protests inside Iran
• IRGC propaganda networks
• How music became a weapon against tyranny
• The growing connection between Israelis and anti-regime Iranians
At one point he says:
“We are not what the IRGC represents. We are the children of Cyrus the Great.”
Watch, comment and share. Lets amplify Persian voices.
Below: Watch 021 Kid's latest single that is making waves throughout the Israeli and Iranian world.
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