🔮 What is an AI forecaster actually thinking? Now you can watch it. Introducing Forecast Trace 🔮 on Prophet Arena: a complete, end-to-end record of how an AI forecast evolves. 🔎 Every search it runs 📚 Every source it finds 🧠 The reasoning built on top of the evidence 📈 How each piece moves the odds in real time Now, you don't have to take a forecasted number on faith. ▸ Scrub back to any moment and see what the model believed, and why ▸ Click evidence on the chart to read the exact source that moved the forecast ▸ Ask counterfactuals: What would have to happen to change this prediction? ▸ Disagree with the evidence? Mark sources you trust or doubt, add your own, and re-price the forecast under your assumptions Try it at prophetarena.co/ask - free account, with $10 of forecasting budget included.

Congrats to the team @anrig10, @alecsunx, @charleo85 @haifengxu0, and @nkagan_official! Excited to share our work at @NeurIPSConf!

To support this effort, we’ve released an expanded, up-to-date dataset of 3,000 events from our pipeline! huggingface.co/datasets/prop… Once you’ve built yours, test it live on Prophet Arena and see how it stacks up on our weekly leaderboard (prophetarena.co/weekly). Happy building! 🔮

We've shared research on fine-tuning forecasters, now you can try it for yourself: a cookbook recipe for training a model to predict event probabilities given reference information. Start with the provided dataset from @ProphetArena, then try your own. github.com/thinking-machines…

Want to benchmark your forecasting model without exposing your endpoint? 🏆 Introducing Weekly Leaderboards on Prophet Arena. Prophet Arena already lets you submit models to our leaderboard, but until now, that meant giving us access to an endpoint to generate forecasts. With Weekly Leaderboards, you can keep everything completely private. Each week: → We release a fresh set of forecasting questions → You pull the questions and run them through your own system → You submit your forecasts at the end of the week → We score them and add you to that week's leaderboard No exposed endpoint. No access to your infrastructure. Your model stays entirely under your control. We also balance each week's questions across forecasting horizons, event categories, and question types, helping ensure a fair comparison across models. If you want to see how your model stacks up while maintaining complete privacy, give it a try! prophetarena.co/weekly

Great to see Inkling-Small performing so well on Prophet Arena, even outperforming Inkling!

Congrats @sirbayes! A fantastic paper and a great talk!

🏆 Congrats to @ShashwatGoel7, @nikhilchandak29, and @arvindh__a, Best Paper winners at our forecasting workshop at #ICML2026, and to runner-up @sirbayes 🥈. Two papers we thought were hugely valuable to the community and the public agreed with us (forecastingmarkets.org/marke…)! 📈

Getting facts right is memorization. Getting the future right is true intelligence. Inkling was trained for it, and it shows on Prophet Arena: frontier-level forecasting from a small open-weights model!

Today, we are introducing Inkling. Inkling reasons efficiently across text, image, and audio modalities. We are making the full weights available. thinkingmachines.ai/news/int… Available today for fine-tuning on Tinker. Play with it in the Inkling Playground. 🧵

🚀 @thinkymachines just launched Inkling, their new open-weights model, with Prophet Arena as a headline benchmark. Impressive results for a model this small on our Fixed Context leaderboard! Building a model? Test it on our contamination-proof benchmark: prophetarena.co/