QCP
@QCPgroup

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 Singapore
qcpgroup.com
Joined January 2018
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QCP
@QCPgroup
1 Sep 2025
QCP Trading has been licensed by MAS as a Major Payment Institution. Institutional clients can now access regulated OTC spot DPT trading with same-day settlement, multi-currency ramps, and seamless execution. Read more: qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-tr…
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DAS ASIA: Rewiring Funds, Collateral, and Settlement in Global Markets with @QCPgroup @swiftcommunity @CGK700 @InvescoUS mod @Kunallegendd Oct 7th. Marina Bay Sands Singapore. Be there.
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QCP Macro Themes, 24 September 2026 1/ Fed's September hike locked in the hiking cycle. Six of seven voting speakers hawkish—Kashkari, Musalem, Goolsbee all emphasize inflation is broad and demand-side pressure is real. Policy rate now 3.75%–4.00%. Hike camp firm; no cut advocates visible. Restrictive bias confirmed.
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4/ Credit repricing sharply: Oracle CDS above 100bps as tech adjusts to elevated rates. BTC ETF flows near 99th percentile, Q4 seasonality bid. Strategy resumed accumulation (950 BTC for $75.7m). SEC approved tokenized stock exemption; Clarity Act stalled. Fed and BOJ hiking lockstep—room for further tightening?
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3/ Hormuz tanker crossings at zero vs. 29-vessel average. Geopolitical tension spiked then collapsed; Trump signalled openness to Iran talks. Brent pulled back to ~$101/bbl. Hormuz remains a chokepoint with Bab El Mandeb also at multi-decade lows.
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2/ BOJ followed suit: rate hike from 1.00%, next hike priced for Q4. 7–2 vote shows conviction. JPY flips to net long in leveraged funds; GBP longs unwinding. Dollar support reduced as central banks tighten in unison. Regime shift accelerating.
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QCP Market Colour, 21 September 2026 1/ $BTC is arming up for a breakout. It closed the week above its 50-week moving average and is up 29% over the past 35 days. The tide is turning into October as the traditional "war trade" loses its grip despite continued U.S.-Iran tensions.
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6/ Levels are the tell. $BTC needs a clean break of 83k resistance, above the May highs, to open the door toward 90k and bring the Call Condor strikes into play. Watch continued ETF inflows and a sustained bid for upside optionality to confirm.
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Read the full QCP Market Colour here: qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-ma…

QCP Market Colour - QCP September 21, 2026

BTC Arms Up for a Breakout Crypto remains relatively well bid following an eventful week, with momentum potentially supported by progress on the American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA). The bill...

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QCP Market Colour, 18 September 2026 1/ $BTC took two hits inside 48hrs. CLARITY Act cloture failed 49-50 Tuesday, knocking spot to a monthly low near $75.9k. The Fed hiked Wednesday. BTC then recovered to $77k before settling $76.5k, forcing $260m+ of short liquidations on the way up.
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Read more: qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-ma…

QCP Market Colour - QCP September 18, 2026

Two Shocks, One Standing Bid Bitcoin absorbed two policy shocks within 48 hours. The Senate’s failed CLARITY Act cloture vote on Tuesday pushed Bitcoin 4% lower to $75,900. The Fed’s 25bp rate...

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6/ Oil down 3 sessions on Saudi restart guidance, but analysts see weeks not days and WTI is +18% on the month. Premium unwinding, not supply returning. BOJ hiked to 1.25%, yen weakened anyway. Watch: Xi-Trump Sep 24, GDP Sep 30, NFP Oct 2.
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5/ Longer-run neutral raised to 3.25% from 3.06%. That matters more for 10y fair value than the near-term path. Curve bear-flattened Wednesday, then yields fell across the board Thursday. 10y back to 4.943% from Tuesday's 5.04% post-2007 high. The long end rewarded the resolve.
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4/ The hike wasn't the story, it was 90%+ priced. Warsh was. Inflation "too high", conditions not "restrictive", the move framed as "removing a dose of policy accommodation". Then no forward guidance. He doesn't think 4% is tight.
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3/ Dominance held 56.6% while only 25 of the top 200 assets are positive YTD, median down 55%. This was a beta repricing, not a crypto one. BTC held because most of it was already priced.
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2/ The flows are the real story. Spot ETFs bled $450m on Sep 15 and $296m on Sep 16, IBIT shedding $144m of that. Then Sep 17 flipped: +$159m net, IBIT +$184m. Outflows bottomed on the hike. The day after, the biggest fund was a buyer.
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QCP Market Colour, 14 September 2026 1/ August CPI delivered 0.4% headline MoM and 0.3% core MoM—above the 0.2% consensus. Annual core eased to 2.4%, but elevated shelter and energy prices confirmed the Fed has real policy work to do this week. $BTC fell to $76.7k on the release before recovering to $77.6k. The contained reaction signals markets have absorbed the hike scenario.
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QCP Market Colour - QCP September 14, 2026

The Fed’s Inflation and Credibility Test August CPI data arrived with mixed signals ahead of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, leaving the...

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