Why, when something real & truly palpable is on the line like casino & lottery wins, does all intuition suddenly fail absolutely miserably?

Sep 26, 2026 · 3:41 PM UTC

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Replying to @QuestionAbyss
Because for events with very low probabilities of happening it makes it much harder to credit "gut" or "intuition" - there's much less room to bluff and be "accidentally lucky to guess", so the toolkit of "gut", "intuition" is kept silent to prevent being seen as simply stupid.
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Replying to @QuestionAbyss
Not necessarily. Having studied magic a little, there are things people do with cards that they can do with little to no thought that would terrify fellow card players otherwise unaware. Lottery? Yes. Abject failure. Most people understand probability very little, if at all.
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Replying to @QuestionAbyss
The environment often does not contain stable, learnable patterns that intuition can reliably exploit. There are more fallacies in gambling than other endeavors where real patterns can emerge. HOWEVER- in games such as poker, intuition can become useful because opponents exhibit behavioral patterns and skill matters. In blackjack, expertise can improve decisions because the probabilities are mathematically structured. But even there, reliable intuition comes from learned probabilities and experience—not from a mysterious “gut feeling.” I got back from a recent trip to Foxwoods. I dropped $300 on video slots. My last trip to Mohegan Sun yielded $547 on slots. I was up $826 or so on Blackjack, Poker, and Roulette. My last trip to Mohegan I about broke even at the blackjack tables. Intuition can tell you to set limits on your gambling and when to walk away. It can't tell you the next spin will trigger a bonus feature.
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Replying to @QuestionAbyss
When they wanna believe, their brains go bye-bye.
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Replying to @QuestionAbyss
Pre indifference protocal
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Replying to @QuestionAbyss
No patterns.
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