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Give @aggou a follow. He has been doing great work getting daily numbers out during early voting in NC.
🚨 NEW HANOVER COUNTY EARLY VOTE — OCT. 31
🗳️ 3:04 PM UPDATE — 3,578 VOTES TODAY
There may be one more update but I’m not sure.
SATURDAY’S PARTY BREAKDOWN:
⚪ UNA: +1,472 (41.1%)
🔴 REP: +1,076 (30.1%)
🔵 DEM: +1,019 (28.5%)
🟡 LIB: +10
🟢 GRE: +1
📊 CUMULATIVE TOTALS (SHIFT VS. OCT. 30): 66,342 VOTES
⚪ UNA: 25,301 (38.14%) ↑ 0.17 pp
🔵 DEM: 22,194 (33.45%) ↓ 0.29 pp
🔴 REP: 18,617 (28.06%) ↑ 0.11 pp
📈 SATURDAY REP–DEM MARGIN: REP +57
Friday: DEM +114
🔴 RAW NET SHIFT: REP +171
⏰ HOURLY MARGIN:
9:30 AM: REP +24
11 AM: REP +38
12 PM: REP +94
2:08 PM: REP +68
3:04 PM: REP +57
🔵 DEM +11 shift since 2:08 PM
1
8
1,245
🧵NC in-person EV ended today and we will have numbers tomorrow. The current gap is D+14.5/D+361K vs D+7.3/D+133K in 22 and R+1.4/R+56K in 24. Dems are poised to go into Election Day with more than double the margin vs 22. Budd lost EV that year by 107K #ncpol
2
2
8
2,610
41 of 50 State Senate are more Dem than 22 and all have moved more Dem than 24.
SDs 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 23, 24, 36, and 50 are all more GOP compared to 22.
SD 34 moved the most toward Dems compared to 22 (D+13.3) and SD 10 has done the same compared to 24 (D+20.2) #ncpol
1
269
92 of 120 House Districts moved more Dem compared to 22 and 119 of 120 have moved more Dem compared to 24
HD 104 has moved the most toward Dems vs 2024 (D+22.0) and HD 83 has moved the most toward Dems vs 2022 (D+15.5)
HD 46 and 47 have moved R+24.8 and R+22.1 vs 2022 #ncpol
1
278
🧵GA in-person EV finished yesterday. On modeled party, the GOP is in a large hole going into election day. Margin is one thing, but the raw vote deficit is massive. The margin on modeled party closed at D+7.6, which is a D+204K vote gap vs R+139K in 24 and D+11K in 22 #gapol
3
20
93
24,814
The margin shifted D+5.6 vs 22. The core of the ATL metro (Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, Clayton) shifted D+6.3 vs 22. The rest of the metro shifted D+11.1. The remaining 130 counties in the state shifted R+0.2 #gapol
1
2
8
1,216
Early voting numbers obviously do not look good for the GOP, but it does not mean this will be the final outcome. The gap heading into election day is likely insurmountable for Collins. Jackson will need strong GOP turnout on election day to close the gap. #gapol
2
11
1,048
Ryan Bonifay retweeted
Huge October surprise!
Bill Belichick, Jordon Hudson Quietly Broke Up Almost a Year Ago tmz.com/2026/10/30/bill-beli…
1
4
539
🧵NC in-person EV is sitting at D+15.8/D+355K (modeled party applied to unaffiliated voters). This margin is down 1.3% from yesterday. It is still worse for the GOP vs 22 (D+7.5/D+121K) and 24 (R+1.6/R+57K). #ncpol
2
3
11
2,994
41 of 50 State Senate are more Dem than 22 and all have moved more Dem than 24.
SDs 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 23, 24, 36, and 50 are all more GOP compared to 22.
SD 34 moved the most toward Dems compared to 22 (D+15.6) and SD 10 has done the same compared to 24 (D+22.7) #ncpol
1
1
249
94 of 120 House Districts moved more Dem compared to 22 and all have moved more Dem compared to 24.
HD 43 has moved the most toward Dems vs 2024 (D+23.4) and HD 83 has moved the most toward Dems vs 2022 (D+16.4)
HD 46 and HD 47 have moved R+23.9 and R+22.4 vs 2022 #ncpol
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3
291