So I just pushed a major update to rawbooty.com this is a project i've been meaning to do for a while. Most of what's on there is foundational knowledge. I will continue to build this out as time passes. everything on there is cc by 4.0. welcome any feedback.

Interesting to think about how destabilizing the current 'migrant' crisis is to the euro. why would i want to be a member state, or citizen of a member state if they are going to import trash people and spend my tax dollars subsidizing their integration? 🤔 prob not great for the euro currency.

always funny how he spins this stuff. yes, under specific conditions where humans are known to be terrible.

This is fascinating and exciting and also kind of boring all at the same time. Basically because of the natural structure of double entry accounting, solutions are latent and can thus be triangulated enabling the ai to overcome the discrete logic problem you run into normally with mathematics. I would logically expect this development to lead to a spellcheck like function for systems like quickbooks where errors are flagged in real time as the software can now track transactions in real time, as they are entered, across the ledger. (when possible to detect) For automated systems like creditcards, and other payment networks this should be a big deal. As for need for accountants? i think this just improves accuracy but does nothing to the demand for accountants as employees. why it's exciting to me is here you have a real world example where statistical inference can be used successfully for complex discrete logic problems with confidence. Niche, yes, but pretty broad implications within the niche.

Third question on AI. A question that also remains unasked is whether the AI boom can continue without leading to a massive increase in inequality. A recent paper by Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh runs the numbers on how much revenue the AI industry needs to generate to recover its massive investment (summary and a link to the paper can be found here: brookings.edu/articles/finan…). Van Nieuwerburgh’s arithmetic should make us more concerned. AI investments will average about 3.6% of GDP annually between 2025 and 2032. Van Nieuwerburgh calculates that, using a 10% rate of return, the industry would need to generate annual revenues of about $3.7 trillion by 2032 to recover these costs (growing from its current levels of about $200 billion or so). That is significantly more than 10% of current US national income, and will likely remain around 10% of national income by 2032, even if GDP growth rose from its current level. A large fraction of this revenue will go to capital income. That means a massive increase in the share of capital in national income, which has already risen substantially over the last 25 years or so – now standing at an all-time high of about 47% (bls.gov/news.release/pdf/pro…). Capital income is much more unequally distributed than labor income, so a massive increase in the capital share of national income will translate into a very sizable surge in inequality. The rise in inequality may not stop with the capital share. My work with Pascual Restrepo documents that (automation-driven) increases in the capital share of national income are typically associated with rising labor income inequality as well (see, for example, economics.mit.edu/sites/defa…). The same may happen in the next several years, boosting inequality further. What is missing from our current debate is any discussion of a fundamental dilemma these numbers pose: can the AI boom avoid both an economically costly crash and a huge increase in inequality? If the industry reaches these revenues, inequality surges. If the industry does not become profitable, a crash, with substantial costs in terms of lost output and jobs, becomes likely. My assessment would be that the industry is unlikely to reach levels of revenue Van Nieuwerburgh calculates. First, diffusion has been and will likely continue to be slow. Second, competition from open-weight models, which are getting better, will limit how much proprietary models can charge. Third, despite important advances, I still believe that AI models will not be able to automate entire occupations anytime soon, thus limiting their value to businesses as cost-saving devices. Whether this leads to a crash or not is more complicated and will depend on whether various AI companies are bailed out and what kind of support they receive. Nevertheless, even if revenues fall short of these gargantuan amounts and we avoid a dramatic surge in inequality, I expect that the diffusion of AI will push up inequality between capital and labor and within labor. If inequality does surge, a further question becomes central: can our democracy survive such astronomical levels of inequality?

$NKE just do it... eventually.

$NKE guidance was🤢 and China is a real problem. ICYMI: China spent decades building a growth model around residential real estate. Local governments relied on land sales for funding. Developers relied on rising prices to fund new construction and lure in buyers. Households were heavily concentrated in property, because they were restricted from most other forms of investment. Local governments? They borrowed against the proceeds from property sales to fund infrastructure. That's leverage on top of leverage that wasn't built for a post Trump world. China now faces the same problem Japan faced: they can't afford to allow the defaults as it would likely destabilize the country. I now personally expect years of debt restructuring, zombie loans, weak credit creation, and persistent deflationary pressure. "oops" That's not a great backdrop for the Nike-in-China growth story. That said i do expect some labor savings as China costs for Nike come down due to the economic headwinds. The problem is Nike went woke, has mediocre at best management and now still faces execution risk, competitive pressure, and the challenge of reigniting growth in a mature global brand without the benefits of china. The good news: the business remains profitable (for now) and the brand still has enormous value, and nearly impossible to replicate mindshare. This matters more than most realize in the digital age. Nike is a trusted brand, this trust sells product when faced with unknown brands for things like shoes and apparel. Personally, I'm not interested in shorting it at these levels, but I'm also not interested in buying a turnaround as complicated as this one. Nike isn't a company it's a country. If / when this does turn it'll likely be slow so i'm in no rush. for now i suspect this thing is just a trading vehicle. Ohh yeah that fat dividend? Hard to see them not cutting it, or suspending it entirely.

ooph ugly out of $NKE glad i didn't buy this today. was tempted

Nick Plumb has just unlocked the Indian scamming that is the heart of today's medical hiring. This is your life at stake here. It is 100% okay to be racist at this point.

my 3rd biggest position. As i've been saying consulting is not at risk from AI. Employees at large Companies hire consultants mostly to shield themselves from risk. having an "independent' 3rd party verify whatever bs you're selling your customers / board etc... mitigates risk. an AI agent's opinion does not.

So $MRNA clearly benefitted from the "high beta momo" trade last month. Hopefully this is now over, and the algo's will move onto something else. if you think this thing is up 50% in 14days on fundamentals i've got a nice bridge to sell you. @seedy19tron

"Britain’s prisons are full." is not a great headline when coupled with the current 'migrant' issues. Solution: "most of those serving a standard prison sentence will be released earlier than initially planned. Adults convicted of less serious offences will be freed after a third of their sentence (rather than 40% or halfway through); others will be released after serving half of their sentence (instead of two thirds). Prisoners will be released “on license,” equivalent to being on parole, and those convicted of the most serious crimes are excluded from the reforms." 💀 cnn.com/2026/09/30/uk/uk-bri…

🤔

"Raincoat Pikachu" PSA gem mint 10 sold for $8.4m 🤣🤡🌏

if this is correct then the ability to turn off strarlink is a hell of a tactical power to wield.

Mortgage rates got way too low for way too long. the result has been houses got bigger, have more amentias like bathrooms, hvac etc... so yeah they now cost more. same thing happened to autos. hopefully higher rates will make it economic again to make starter homes and basic vehicles? cheap money made luxury common place, now people complain that they have to actually pay for it.

Early adoption is not a good indicator for companies like this as their marketing costs are near zero. The real KPI will be user retention, engagement and how many paying customers sign on. my guess we won't know any of this for months, so everything at this point is hopium. i continue to believe that MUSE is nearly economically useless for most people. this matters when you're a trillion-dollar company seeking meaningful growth.

pure insanity. there's the old saying "never risk the fortune you need to make one you don't" Nvidia is committing suicide chasing growth it doesn't need versus growing its economic moat. Imagine what happens if someone uses ARM's strategy with GPU/TPUs. if power costs are the pimary driver of costs.. what happens when a cheaper to run chip comes out?

Few people have goals. and super intelligence is no-where in sight. this is right up there with condos on mars.

$META muse after dark.

looks totally healthy and normal. totally not a bubble.