Statistics and thoughts on the Tampa Bay Rays. Not affiliated with the team. Contributor @DRaysBay
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2.5 weeks until the trade deadline.
Some Rays predictions & thoughts from me 🧵
7
8
112
22,214
Rays grinded Schlittler down beautifully. 2 K’s for him is a season-low. Took advantage of Yankees sloppiness on D.
Peralta throwing gas, Seymour excellent, Baker nails. Clean defense, good baserunning. Great win.
2-0
2
8
273
3,728
Championship Win Probability Added (cWPA) leaders. 2026 postseason - pitchers:
1. Drew Rasmussen +5.5%
2. Trevor Megill +2.7%
3. Andrew Painter +2.7%
4. Grant Taylor +2.4%
5. Tarik Skubal +2.3%
1
4
82
2,375
Rays have been praised for their changeups, but they are also on the cutting edge of sinker usage.
This year, 17.9% of their SI landed on the glove-side of the plate, highest rate in MLB.
24.5% of their SI resulted in a called strike, highest rate in MLB.
Ras had it on display
2
17
224
23,083
Rasmussen brilliant.
Offense worked Cole well.
Aranda blasted.
Clean defense.
Baker slammed the door.
1-0
1
2
133
2,177
At 36 and returning from surgery, Gerrit Cole still has good stuff. Velo up this year vs. '24 and K/BB rate remains strong.
Where he is beatable is airborne contact against. He's tops in FB% and EV allowed amongst SP, and worst HR/9 of his career.
Great night to see some homers
5
3
73
4,230
Yankees lefty bats torched Red Sox pitching in those 2 games:
21 for 49 (.429), 34 TB, 16 RBI
Expecting to see all of Seymour, Booser, and Cleavinger* used aggressively and in high leverage spots. Lots of changeups from the righty arms as well (obviously).
*health permitting
6
73
5,198
Rays have some interesting postseason roster decisions to make, particularly on the pitching side. For those curious, here was their roster split in past 3 playoff seasons:
2021 (ALDS): 13 P, 13 B
2022 (ALWC): 12 P, 14 B
2023 (ALWC): 11 P, 15 B
18
6
76
8,617
Victor Mesa Jr. is such a good, well rounded player.
He’s up to a 132 wRC+ and 2.4 WAR in just 219 PA. Initial Statcast data has him in an elite tier of outfield defenders.
He has absolutely got to be carving his way into long term plans in TB. A fantastic find.
9
23
364
15,155
Brody Hopkins gets the call!
On August 15th the Rays moved him into a relief role, and his in-zone rate has increased 7.6% since.
In those 9 outings his fastball is averaging 99.4 (topped 101.5) and he’s running a 41% strikeout rate.
#Rays are calling up RH Brody Hopkins, who has been dazzling in a relief role recently for AAA @DurhamBulls. First reported by … Brody’s dad.
1
2
80
4,609
Excited to see RHP Ty Johnson up with the club. Since the start of the 2025 season he has posted a 34.5 K% and 9.3 BB%.
His 25.2 K-BB% is the 2nd best mark in minor league baseball over that span. (min. 130 IP)
3
5
56
2,746
Just a dominant 9-0 road trip by the Rays.
65 runs scored (7.2 R/G) against 34 runs allowed (3.7 R/G).
6.5 games up in the division. Clinch bye odds up to 84% per FG.
74-46 is tied (with MIL) for best record in MLB.
3
11
117
4,334
Griffin Jax gets the ball tonight. Over his last 10 starts:
52.2 IP, 3.25 ERA, 3.18 FIP
29.8 K%, 5.6 BB%
Over that span his 24.2 K-BB% ranks top 10 among qualified SP, while his 68% LOB and 16% HR/FB both rank bottom 15.
The process stats are great, results still unlucky.
1
4
69
4,593
The Liam Hicks happy zone.
On down-and-in zoned pitches this year Hicks has only whiffed 2.6% of the time, the lowest rate in baseball, while also posting a .391 ISO.
Yordan Alvarez is the only other comparable hitter (contact/power combo) in this part of the zone.
3
6
89
4,074
Current state roster.
Pitching reinforcements down the line:
McClanahan should be back soon, Manny Rodriguez’s stuff looks good in rehab.
If Boyle or Hopkins can get in-zone more often, the stuff plays.
Ty Johnson & Alexander Alberto are the prospects with a chance to help.
7
5
69
5,329
Probably the most buyer-aggressive deadline the Rays have ever had. They address 3 big needs with very talented players in Peralta, Hicks & Wells.
8 total prospects traded (3 of which were R5 eligible this winter), all acquired salaries absorbed, no big league pieces sold.
12
10
219
9,710
Liam Hicks! The Rays are getting 4.5 years of the 27 year-old Marlin backstop.
Hicks is a phenomenal contact hitter and is tapping into career best power this year with more pulled flyballs. Career 122 wRC+ vs. RHP.
He’s not known for defense but can handle catcher and 1B.
9
14
249
21,853
In exchange for Arraez (& Kilian) the Giants land a surging young pitching prospect in Ramon Marquez. FanGraphs just added him at #67 in their last T100 update.
The Rays don’t really have a Marquez equivalent, but this is probably somewhere around the Hopkins/Forret value range.
10
5
85
27,236