TLDR:
@CJHandmer wrote two essays proposing plans to save the Colorado River that live rent free in my head. I think I have a better, cheaper, faster solution.
Lake Mead has a storage capacity of 30M acre-feet and is around ~7MAF today
Currently, cloud seeding couldn’t produce 23MAF/yr over the basin, but ~9MAF/yr of new precip is doable today.
Currently, water from cloud seeding ranges ~$50-$1000 per AF depending on frequency of conditions. This is largely a function of how much you can amortize cost of drones/sensors/staff over frequency of conditions and, wrt hardware, useful life: the water is cheaper in wetter years.
Important factor to account for here is the effective vs total precipitation (i.e. not all the snow/rain you bring down will reach Lake Mead before evaporating, percolating into aquifers, or being consumed). Unless you’re inducing precip immediately over a reservoir (which Rainmaker is testing this winter) effective precipitation ranges from ~10-80% in the Colorado River Basin. This increases your cost per acre foot commensurately.
All of that to say, assuming Rainmaker never achieved autonomous operations, improved no atmospheric science, and cut no costs, we could tangibly refill Lake Mead in ~3-4 years for $7.5B/yr.
As our tech improves the cost will lower and yield will increase, a lot.
These are the types of claims that deserve ample skepticism and scrutiny. I am talking a big game. Can Rainmaker and I walk the walk?
Cloud seeding has a history full of nonsense “science” interspersed with flashes of rigor. Sometimes MoDeLeD/SiMuLaTeD “evidence” of cloud seedings effects are directionally-correct-ish. Unfortunately, sometimes those modeled results have been doctored.
Despite all of the groundbreaking research Rainmaker has already and continues to conduct, the reality is:
1) we haven’t published our first peer reviewed paper yet.
2) we haven’t made millions of acre feet of physically measurable precipitation.
It is our responsibility to put our money where our mouth is. We are going to put A LOT of money into increasing the rigor and scale of this tech. We are going to provably produce infrastructure-scale water this winter.
I am writing, in more detail, my proposed alternative plan to Casey Handmer’s.