Everybody’s posting the golden cross today😅
That’s fine. Just don’t treat it like a starting gun.
Bitcoin dumped into golden crosses in 2014, 2015, 2019, and 2023.
Sometimes the bear was over. Sometimes it wasn’t.
What actually mattered after the dump was simple.
Higher high, and a weekly close above the 50-week SMA. That’s how 2019 and 2023 confirmed the bear was done.
Lower high, rejected at the 50-week. That’s how 2014 and 2015 stayed a bear.
We’re in that same spot now.
Price tagged the 50-week, pulled back, and the golden cross just printed. The next move after this dip is what will truly matter.
If we get a higher high and hold above the 50-week, I’m going all in on BTC and a tight list of quality alts.
If we get rejected again, September and Q4 can still get ugly.
The golden cross is not the confirmation. The weekly close is.
Bitcoin dumps on golden crosses are normal.
What is more telling is the bounce after the golden cross dump is over.
In 2019/2023, Bitcoin dumped into the golden cross then put in a higher high, thus confirming the end of the bear market.
In 2014/2015, Bitcoin dumped into the golden cross, then put in a lower high, and the bear market continued.
A higher high (if achieved) would likely correspond to a weekly close above the 50W SMA (which is a good predictor of the bear market being over).
A lower high (rejected at the 50W) would be a sign that the Q4 low occurs right on schedule.
To summarize:
The dump BTC is experiencing right now has happened previously in bear markets and in the beginning of bull markets. The thing to watch for whether the low is behind us is after this dump is over, does Bitcoin print a higher high (and go above the 50W) or a lower high (rejected again).
Once that data point arrives, it would likely be the nail in the coffin for either the bull or the bear case.