Everyone wants to buy low and sell high until it's time to buy low

While SPY levitates near record highs. Simply crazy times

And the denial: SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIAL SAYS HORMUZ WILL REMAIN CLOSED, NO NUCLEAR TALKS WITH US UNTIL IRAN'S CONDITIONS ARE MET: RTRS

Iran-U.S. talks enter technical stage, Al-Jazeera journalist reports cbsnews.com/live-updates/ira…

I keep seeing this argument that 5%+ treasury yields don't matter, because they're "historically low" (in reality, they're just 0.6% below the historical average, but that's besides my point) The directionality of yields is what the markets care about. Not the absolute number, the trend. Volatility of this kind in bonds means that action in risk & long-duration assets suffer ("chop") from perpetual uncertainty with regard to the pricing of forward expectations. For the past 7 months consecutively, the 10-year yield has risen higher. That's tied for the *longest streak ever*, rivaled by only 2010 and 1978. These are rare events separated by decades. As for those who say yields are up due to "lack of fiscal discipline" -- sure.. that's a tailwind, but that's been an issue for the better part of two decades. That's not the catalyst, though. The more intelligent take, if you're looking for an emerging, more chronic issue is the idea that we are inflecting toward de-globalization because of repeated resource crises during most periods of conflict in recent history, the schism between the U.S. & China over Taiwan, the distancing of the U.S. from NATO obligations and vice-versa, the pervasion of "fairness" doctrines (tariffs), the broader destabilization of Europe & the Middle East through war, and the highly competitive nature of emerging technologies, namely AI, which are increasingly dubbed as national security imperatives. If you're looking for acute cause, there is only one explicit catalyst that is *actually* driving the bond vigilantes to relentlessly push yields, and it's obvious: the 10-year yield is up for 7 months consecutively, from 3.9% to 5.2%. Anyone know what happened 7 months ago? Oh... yeah... the war in Iran. If we want to get yields & interest rates under control, the war must end. Not only will this subdue the acute catalyst, but it will also dampen the risk surrounding the more chronic de-globalization story.

US CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS TO 48.1 IN SEPTEMBER • Sentiment: 48.1 vs 47.6 est, 51.7 prior • Current conditions: 50.9 vs 49.5 est • Expectations: 46.3 vs 51.5 prior • 1-year inflation: 4.6% vs 4.0% prior • 5-year inflation: 3.4% vs 3.3% prior University of Michigan final September survey.

IRANIAN PRESIDENT MASOUD PEZESHKIAN SAYS TEHRAN WANTS TO REVIVE ITS CEASEFIRE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING WITH THE U.S. BEFORE THE NOVEMBER MIDTERM ELECTIONS, SAYING IRAN DOES NOT WANT TALKS DELAYED UNTIL AFTER THE VOTE. - NBC NEWS

$DNA another strong day

$PRME Prime Medicine Announces U.S. FDA Clearance of Investigational New Drug Application for PM647 in Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency

Noticing the same

The Reuters report is false and its goal is to control the price of oil. no negotiations are underway. #Iran's position remains unchanged: the U.S. must fulfill the stipulated conditions in a single step so that the Strait of #Hormuz can be opened under Iranian control. Period.

$ASTS and we're back! 🤣 From nearly breaking down to nearly breaking out. Buyers stepped in where they needed to but now sellers will be tested again as we are back at resistance. We're clearly at a major inflection point at the tail end of consolidation. *NFA

7th day in a row of more 52-week lows than 52-week highs, longest stretch since the Liberation day meltdown

U.S. AND IRAN EXPLORE PHASED HORMUZ DEAL U.S. and Iranian negotiators are discussing a phased agreement to end the conflict, Reuters reports. The potential first step would see Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its economic blockade, potentially alongside access to frozen Iranian assets. The main obstacle remains sequencing: neither side wants to surrender its leverage first, leaving negotiations fragile.

$ASTS Furthermore, when you're still in the stage of relying on fresh capital, your ability to communicate well to investors is more often than not directly linked to your ability to raise capital on favorable terms. If you maintain a pattern of missing guidance without adequately communicating why, then new investors, whether your issuing new debt or equity, will demand a higher yield or bigger discount to account for the added uncertainty for the lack of clear and accurate communication.

For the first time in this down cycle we're seeing clear relative strength in $RKLB pushing off its 50sma vs $ASTS being below all moving averages. Going to stir the pot I know but here we go. SpaceMob thinks it has all this influence while refusing to use its strongest influence. Stop defending the company's lack of communication and hold them accountable instead, and the company just might make some changes in how they communicate. Management has credited SpaceMob in the past for being one of the strongest investment communities. You want to see things done differently? Then the community would do more good for the company by being more vocal about what they want to see done differently. This notion that shareholders must support and defend everything management has done/is doing and have unwavering support is flat out wrong. One can be a rational critic and also still believe in the company. I'm also involved in private markets and can assure you I get replies when I request for communication. The average private company communicates better than ASTS has over the course of this year. This is a public company. There's really no excuse at this point for the lack of communication to shareholders. And yes, I've reached out a number of times now and have had zero replies. What's made this down cycle feel worse is there's been little to no clarity on what is going on. When a stock drops shareholders simply want to know the state of the company. It's easier to hold a stock dropping when investors are reassured that things at the company level are still good. If anything, that encourages investors to increase their investment vs being in the dark and wondering if they should decrease their investment instead. It's actually really straight forward, and I'm shocked how many have twisted this by discounting or mocking those who simply want clarity.

$ASTS went from failed breakout to nearly a breakdown. Right back at the bottom of the consolidation pattern. Risk of a breakdown has increased. Of course we could always have a failed breakdown in this kangaroo market. Being nimble *NFA

$META unveiled Muse Charm which is a palm-sized 5G device built specifically for talking to Muse. Zuck says the goal is to make Muse something you can “just talk to” as Meta pushes its personal agent beyond the phone and across dedicated hardware.

Maybe a good time to revisit this with the META palm-sized device with 5G for Muse headlines 👇

*META DEBUTS A DEDICATED, PALM-SIZED DEVICE WITH 5G TO USE MUSE