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Getting a few Qs on the ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 thesis - rehashing the below but adding:
-I’m bullish stablecoins of all kinds - GENIUS-compliant or not. It’s a superior product than paper fiat and bank deposits in many use cases. It only accounts for $5-16T of adjusted transactions today. Credit cards are $35-40T, ACH is $100T. A lot more room to grow.
- $USDe is a superior product than many peers. It’s not GENIUS-compliant and that’s ok. It was never a competitor to $USDC. But for a meaningful amount of low-velocity users on @trondao it is superior to ethereum:0xdac17f958d2ee523a2206206994597c13d831ec7 and it just got added to the network. Multi-billion opportunity.
-@gdog97_ was always a Mt Rushmore figure in the current iteration of crypto next to @chameleon_jeff @PaulFrambot etc. but he didn’t really embrace the right tokenomics until the 90% sell-off post-10/10. The recent restructurings indicate he gets it. So now the product AND the token are both excellent.
-people underestimate exponential call options like Ethena pay, Robinhood chain, Tron, etc. you just need one to hit. P(hit) = 1 - (1-C1) * (1-C2)… * (1-Cn). Again we just need one.
Overall the story of $ENA is one of humans under appreciating the integral of exponential functions and the structural discount in “phoenix” comeback stories. This is it.
Let's spell out the ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 and $USDE thesis very simply
Following the fee switch vote, the only thing that matters for ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 economics is USDE circulation, which is a function of distribution and adoption
Market cap has gone up $500M in a month and has been adding $20-$40M daily through the weekends
Underlying yield is boosted by greater funding rate arb in crypto and soon to take a stepwise jump when the rumored @tradexyz equity perp funding rate arb partnership kicks in
@RobinhoodCrypto Chain added $320M in 2 months. Just getting started.
Haven't seen any uplift yet from @EthenaPay but of course that's forthcoming too
Every trend says $7.5B is much, much closer than market gives credit for, and of course current valuations give zero value for any of the $10B+ ratchet-ups
And you get all this at a 40%+ effective discount by owning the DAT $USDC which most people don't even know is in existence
Yeah, we're running $PURR back all over again
CC: @tedchenCPC @gdog97_
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Took a while but we cooking a little now with $QCOM
Good momentum on everything but Muse was perhaps an unexpected win. Pulls forward the physical AI thesis via the best selling product, glasses, and likely deepens the DC collab as well with $META
My quick and dirty Qualcomm $QCOM thesis:
-Legacy optionality underpriced. Physical AI calls for their real-world IP. Less R&D available for people to switch off Snapdragons - extends runway.
-People are underpricing the HBC optionality. AI is moving from a SOTA training race (low cost sensitivity, high tech lead) to cost-efficient inference race (high cost sensitivity, opening for challenger architectures).
-$15B DC guide is "bird in hand" from $MSFT $META etc. That number should track to $20B+. There are more whale customers beyond Bytedance et al.
-Valuation is undemanding and trailing performance reflects nearly zero DC upside. The reaction to Analyst Day was fully justified and they got swept down with stocks that needed a breather after a 1,000% run. Gifted entry.
-Underappreciated CPU exposure to Agentic.
-Underappreciated handset volume upside to Agentic x Physical AI.
-CEO is visionary.
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Ayo wtf
GOAT of Poker is a crypto gigachad too
Mad respect @phil_hellmuth
Not bad for 2 weeks
More to come
$USDE ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 @stablecoin_x
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Hyperliquid-coded
hyperliquid:native
*SEC STAFF ISSUES FAQS ON CRYPTO ASSET SECURITIES LAWS APPLICATION
*SEC STAFF: TOKEN BUYBACKS ON FUNCTIONAL PROTOCOLS DO NOT CONSTITUTE MANAGERIAL EFFORTS
*SEC STAFF: LIQUID STAKING TOKENS ARE DIGITAL COMMODITIES OR TOOLS, NOT SECURITIES
*SEC STAFF: MAINTENANCE, ENHANCEMENTS, SYSTEM GRANTS NOT CONSIDERED ESSENTIAL MANAGERIAL EFFORTS
*SEC STAFF: PROMOTING CRYPTO UTILITY WITHOUT PROFIT CLAIMS GENERALLY NOT AN INVESTMENT CONTRACT
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Not bad for 2 weeks
More to come
$USDE ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 @stablecoin_x
Let's spell out the ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 and $USDE thesis very simply
Following the fee switch vote, the only thing that matters for ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 economics is USDE circulation, which is a function of distribution and adoption
Market cap has gone up $500M in a month and has been adding $20-$40M daily through the weekends
Underlying yield is boosted by greater funding rate arb in crypto and soon to take a stepwise jump when the rumored @tradexyz equity perp funding rate arb partnership kicks in
@RobinhoodCrypto Chain added $320M in 2 months. Just getting started.
Haven't seen any uplift yet from @EthenaPay but of course that's forthcoming too
Every trend says $7.5B is much, much closer than market gives credit for, and of course current valuations give zero value for any of the $10B+ ratchet-ups
And you get all this at a 40%+ effective discount by owning the DAT $USDC which most people don't even know is in existence
Yeah, we're running $PURR back all over again
CC: @tedchenCPC @gdog97_
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Short $ANTH @AnthropicAI on @entropyIO is an easy funding source for hyperliquid:native and ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 longs
Opus 5.5 was it, nothing better before year-end. I’ll eat my sock if they can IPO before midterms - Dario is rst poison to public opinion on AI. Astra taking frontier share, Codex taking coding, China taking low end, Muse taking Cowork+ from masses. Margins compressing. Growth massively slowing as $META and Chinese distillation end.
Decent short so far and getting paid healthy carry.
Most NY HFs for in at $125-$250B valuations. They are scoping sales in secondary below $2B.
This is just not as good a company as valuation suggests. Hyper competitive and moats eroding.
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We are pretty fucking early on Ethena
Adding here into a $100B market opportunity going live on the biggest CEX @cz_binance
@HyperliquidX is coming next - ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 might be the connecting bridge between CEX and DEX RWA liquidity islands
Guy Coded
$USDE gonna be up another 20% today too lol
Ethena is partnering with @Binance as our first venue for the extension of the basis trade into equity perpetuals, one of the most exciting updates to the USDe collateral backing since launch.
This expands the addressable market of underlying collateral from $2.5 trillion of crypto to $150 trillion+ of real-world assets.
As part of the partnership, bStocks will serve as tokenized spot collateral, hedged with Binance USDT-denominated equity perpetuals - the same delta-neutral structure Ethena has securely executed across crypto assets since inception.
Importantly, Binance provides lower ADL priority for eligible delta-neutral accounts including Ethena's, adding another layer of risk mitigation for USDe holders.
Binance equity basis has averaged ~11%+ annualized over the past 6 months, while open interest has grown on average ~30% per month in the last 3 month period.
We expect the market opportunity size for equity perpetuals to far exceed the $15b+ of crypto perpetuals captured by Ethena last cycle.
Allocations begin today.
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17% funding arb tested on Binance. No real liquidity on Bybit yet but building. OKX has some pairs. But it’s obvious xStocks @arjunsethi and bStocks will benefit here from an immediate liquidity increase
Great for the budding ecosystem. Market structure is maturing fast
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Unfortunately another absolute banger initiative
Bro is a beast
Never been to the opera before?
Now’s your chance. We’re giving away 70,000 free tickets to the @MetOpera at the iconic Lincoln Center. Go to on.nyc.gov/opera to enter the lottery. There’s not a bad seat in the house.
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$ENA to $1
Binance Wallet has enabled USDe rewards.
USDe has been selected as one of only three assets eligible for @BinanceWallet's new Hold to Earn - and offers the highest rate available.
Hold USDe and earn rewards automatically, paid by Binance.
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“Yeah but your size is not size” - Goldman Sachs Asset Management to Pooracle
hyperliquid:native
Let’s make this very simple. From a traditional non-crypto native investor’s perspective.
Crypto-natives especially in alts have no concept of what institutional TradFi size is.
Crypto learned with $IBIT 2 years ago. Every day for the foreseeable future will be the lowest NAV day for $BHYP and $THYP and $PURR.
$HYPE is extremely low float with an overstated FDV - 40%+ will never circulate.
The $50M “whales” are nothing.
The FUDs referencing $600M of burns haven’t factored in the 90% $USDC float interest. Valuations are more than fair with the spread of likely outcomes ahead.
They’ve obviously cracked US regulation - if you can’t read that between the recent news out of DC, you don’t know American politics.
Hyperliquid is what Ethereum and Solana tried to be. Narrower in scope perhaps, but it’s actually doing it well enough to challenge TradFi incumbents.
The valuation target isn’t a per token dollar figure. The fair adjusted FDV has a TAM of US ($300B) and global ($600B+) exchanges. Plus Kalshi/Polymarket (another $40B) and more if you are ambitious.
If you play this game for 20% moves - and I guess you have to with 5x plus leverage - you are cannon fodder and won’t escape the underclass. Wealth is for believers, not scalpers.
Good luck to all.
$HYPE $PURR @HypeStrat @HyperliquidX @HyperionDeFi
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I think $ANTH comes to market at $1.2-1.5B and first trade might not be much higher than $1.6-1.8B.
Don’t see why it necessarily deserves premium to $OAI. Open source killing them both.
The only thing Anthropic had going for it was the crazy revenue trajectory which we now learn is all Chinese and $META distillation. They won’t be able to hold rev growth trajectory for much longer now that distillation is wrapping.
Dario is by far the worst representative possible of an AI lab and make no mistake, this is a public relations business now.
I think IPO will slip into 2026 given Anthropic enabled Iranians and Houthis to damage US military infrastructure and likely hurt US servicemen.
Which all bring me to the point of why tf are you long this thing on perps paying 25% funding. This is a terrible risk/reward bet at $2.2T.
I’ll gladly take the other side of this POS. I was long Unitree and CXMT but this setup is completely different.
Hyperliquid hyperliquid:native CC: @entropyIO
I’m getting paid 25% to short $ANTH on @HyperliquidX @entropyIO at dreamland $2.2T as they lose to both $OAI Astra and Chinese open-source and @Muse while delaying IPO, getting owned by gov’t, and making up Earnings before Costs metrics (community-adjusted)
We are not the same
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I’m getting paid 25% to short $ANTH on @HyperliquidX @entropyIO at dreamland $2.2T as they lose to both $OAI Astra and Chinese open-source and @Muse while delaying IPO, getting owned by gov’t, and making up Earnings before Costs metrics (community-adjusted)
We are not the same
Open models continue taking share. Not just tokens, more $ now spent on open models than OpenAI.
Positive for the AI infra trade.
Open models taking share shift $ margin from the model layer to the infra and app layers.
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