Will the AI boom continue, or is the industry headed toward a bust? In the latest wave of the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP), we asked AI experts and superforecasters to forecast the following: • The value of semiconductor and software stock indices • Data center investment in the US • Investment in IT equipment, and electrical and communication structures • The combined annualized revenue run rate of OpenAI and Anthropic 🧵 Read on for our key findings:

🏢 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗯𝘆 𝟳𝟲% 𝗶𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 𝘁𝗼 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟴 Despite a moratorium in New York State and public opposition, forecasters expect annual US private investment in data center structures to continue to grow in real terms from a 2025 baseline of $40.8 billion. Expert median forecasts: 2026: $52.6 billion 2028: $71.8 billion 2035: $89.8 billion That translates to 76% growth by the end of 2028 compared with 2025 levels.

🖥️ 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗶𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗜𝗧 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 We also asked forecasters to predict annual US private investment in IT equipment—covering the servers, networking gear, and other infrastructure that keep data centers running. The median expert expects investment in IT equipment to grow 20% by 2026, 48% by 2028, and 90% by 2035. This implies real-terms investment of $978 billion by 2035. Superforecasters have similar forecasts, edging above $1 trillion by 2035.

⚡ 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝘀𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗶𝗻 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝘂𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 Our final data center investment category was electrical and communication structures: the power generation, electrical transmission, and other infrastructure that power data centers. Compared with data center structures and IT equipment, forecasters expect slower growth. From a baseline of $146.4 billion in 2025, experts forecast 5% growth in investment in 2026, 15% growth by 2028, and 32% growth by 2035. Superforecasters forecast similar levels of growth.

📉 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘀𝗲𝗺𝗶𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘀𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟴 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝟮.𝟱 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 We asked forecasters to predict the change in share price of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which tracks the 25 largest US-listed semiconductor companies, including Micron Technology, AMD, TSMC, ASML Holding, and Broadcom. Over the past 2.5 years, SMH has more than tripled in value, but by the end of 2028 the median expert forecasts that SMH will reach only 1.5 times its mid-2026 value. Superforecasters had similar expectations, predicting SMH would reach 1.36 times its mid-2026 value by the end of 2028. On average, experts and superforecasters forecast less than a 10% chance that SMH will reach the trend-extrapolated level of 3.37 times its mid-2026 value by the end of 2028. In fact, they predict that it’s more likely that SMH will decrease in value than that it will remain at or above its current trend.

📈 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝘀𝗼𝗳𝘁𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄 𝗮𝘁 𝗮 𝘀𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟴 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝟮.𝟱 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 We also asked forecasters to predict the change in the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV). This fund tracks roughly 110 North American software firms and includes Palo Alto Networks, Palantir Technologies, Microsoft, CrowdStrike, and Oracle. Over the past 2.5 years, IGV has increased roughly 1.1x in value. The median expert and superforecaster forecasts that in the next 2.5 years (by the end of 2028) the ETF will reach around 1.2–1.3x its mid-2026 value. The average expert and superforecaster give a 63% and 58% chance, respectively, that IGV will surpass its trend-extrapolated value by the end of 2028. They also give a 25% and 29% chance, respectively, that the index declines from current values.