Biggest threat to rebuilding the defense industrial base is that new companies aren’t able to break in to govt scene.

The Dept of Energy is sitting on more than 22 million pounds of surplus copper & aluminum, plus huge inventories of other critical minerals and materials. Now it's asking private industry who wants it, what can be commercially recovered & put back into U.S. supply chains. One of the most interesting calls for Expressions of Interest out there right now -- Here's what DOE is doing: DOE's Office of Environmental Management has identified inventories of potentially reusable materials across 5 cleanup sites and is looking for private sector ideas to recover, process, & reuse them. Major opportunity for critical mineral processes and refiners, metals recyclers, mining tech startups, nuclear remediation companies, extraction tech, advanced manufacturers, battery and energy companies, defense suppliers, PE, VC, & infrastructure investors to jump in now. A lot of this material already exists in processed or concentrated forms like copper motor windings, aluminum process equipment, silver-tungsten electrical contacts, platinum wire, lead shielding, etc. This is not a grant or a normal federal contract. Right now, DOE is asking industry to help determine what the commercial model could look like. They want to know: - what materials do you need? - what would you do with the recovered material? - is there a domestic market for it? - how much would make a project economically viable? - can you actually recover it? - how should DOE & industry work together to make it happen? - would companies be interested in leasing land or developing processing facilities on DOE sites? What's potentially available -- Paducah, KY: - 16M lbs aluminum - 4M lbs copper - 1,500 lbs tungsten - 500+ lbs silver - 76 lbs platinum - 1,000 lbs selenium Portsmouth, OH: - 2.2M lbs copper - 280 lbs fluorine - Small platinum inventory Oak Ridge, TN: - ~10,000 lbs lithium hydride - Platinum - Cesium-137 chloride Nevada National Security Site: - Lead shielding bricks & shot, incl 402 bricks already characterized as non-radiological and available for recycling now And Moab, UT: - DOE has roughly 16.2 MILLION TONS of legacy uranium mill tailings at Crescent Junction, with another ~1M tons expected through 2029 - historical analysis identified vanadium + a broader mix of critical minerals in the tailings, although DOE says more characterization & testing is needed to determine what can actually be recovered Expressions of Interest due Nov 2. Responses are only 5 pages.

Today, a small garage door repair business in Washington won a $10.7M Army contract to maintain roughly 3,500 automatic & overhead doors at Fort Hood over the next 6 yrs.

Such an important point: "on the funding side, these things need to be packaged up for private sector investors in language they understand and respond to." And let's just admit it, these people are not scouring sam . gov reading & responding to RFIs

Yesterday, Dept. of Energy announced a significant round of investment into next-generation geothermal development. Quick breakdown of the $99M awarded to 21 projects: - Fervo Energy (Idaho): Drill, complete & stimulate enhanced geothermal system wells + deploy a first-of-its-kind geophone array capable of operating at 200°C+ - Zanskar (New Mexico): Use horizontal drilling & hydraulic stimulation to add engineered pressure support to an existing geothermal reservoir and access heat in surrounding hot rock - AlterG Resources (Nevada): Build a deep horizontal enhanced geothermal system well pair & compare two different stimulation/completion methods at commercially relevant depths - University of Utah (Nevada): Develop an enhanced geothermal system doublet next to the existing Dixie Valley geothermal system to test sustained circulation, permeability & commercial-scale heat output - Quaise Energy (Oregon): Push enhanced geothermal systems into much more extreme conditions at Newberry Volcano, targeting temperatures of 265–365°C - DAVINCI EP (California): Drill paired horizontal wells in the Brawley geothermal area to characterize a naturally fractured reservoir without stimulation - University of Utah (Utah): Drill into a major thermal anomaly at Cove Fort to better map heat & fluid movement through carbonate formations - Zanskar (Basin & Range): Test a faster geothermal discovery approach using directional drilling, real-time modeling & logging-while-drilling at a site never previously drilled to reservoir depth - Fervo Energy (Nevada): Appraise an enhanced geothermal system prospect in Humboldt County and confirm whether reservoir temperatures reach 200–220°C - San Ildefonso Services (New Mexico): Drill an exploratory well at San Ildefonso Pueblo near the Jemez volcanic field and collect core, injection-test & logging data - GeoAlaska (Alaska): Explore the southern flank of Mt. Augustine, including a deeper target potentially exceeding 350°C - Hexagon Energy (Washington): Drill in the Wind River Valley targeting 150°C+ temperatures and gather the data needed to design a commercial geothermal power project - GreenFire Energy (California): Evaluate deep geothermal potential at Sierra Army Depot with a vertical well targeting ~204°C - TLS Geothermics (Nevada): Drill into 204°C+ crystalline rock while testing advanced drill-bit technology and building a 3D model connecting geophysical signals to temperature & permeability - LiPower Geothermal (California): Build production + reinjection wells to determine the feasibility of developing an underexplored South Brawley resource - INTEK (California): Drill two reservoir-depth wells at Pisgah Crater to confirm the resource and determine commercial power-generation potential - Oriah Geothermal (Oregon): Progress from thermal-gradient drilling to a reservoir-depth well to characterize a next-generation geothermal target - XGS Energy (New Mexico): Drill a deep appraisal well in Socorro County to validate temperature & geology models and assess commercial resource potential - Raser Power Systems (Utah): Explore whether the existing Thermo No. 1 geothermal plant can support additional generation by drilling into a nearby fault intersection - 400C Energy (Utah): Deepen an existing well to determine whether Salt Cove connects to the nearby Roosevelt Hot Springs geothermal system - Invenergy (Idaho): Drill near Grand View to evaluate a potential hybrid hydrothermal/EGS resource, including temperature, permeability & high-resolution geologic data

"We need to build the defense industrial base." Yes. No question. But let's not ignore the top 5 reasons more American companies aren't coming to the table -- 1. Can't easily quantify their actual federal market. Generally know there's lots of $$ in defense. That's not super useful unless they know how much the government spends on their specific capabilities, which agencies are buying it, how often, where, and whether that demand is actually growing or if there's a gap in supply. 2. Don't know whether the market is realistically accessible, and how. A $70B federal contracting market sounds great until you find out 80% of it goes to 4 companies. Business leaders need to know: how many companies are winning? How competitive are awards? Are small businesses winning a meaningful share? What portion can I go after and how? How long will that take? What are the realistic entry points? 3. Don't understand how the government actually buys what they sell. Direct contracts, IDIQs, set-asides... What NAICS & PSCs? How do I get in front of customers and partners? Commercial businesses understand their customers and sales channels. Most do not understand government market language, procurement mechanisms, dynamics, network, and processes. 4. Huge gap between "oh the government really needs this" and "this is a good market for my company." A capability can be critical to national security and still be a difficult market for a particular company to enter. Businesses need to understand demand, competition, procurement, barriers to entry, partner strategies, and realistic paths to revenue before making that decision. We're asking a lot more American companies to enter defense, expand capacity, manufacture domestically, and invest ahead of demand. For that to happen, we need to make the business case -- and path -- much easier to see. 5. There are very real costs to entering, and they can vary. Certifications, registrations, business development, compliance, cybersecurity, capture, proposal support, hiring, relationships, expertise, time, etc. Before a business owner starts spending against all of that, they need evidence that there's enough addressable opportunity on the other side to justify it.

Yesterday, a small business in Illinois was awarded a $68M max-value IDIQ for Marine Corps coats and belts over the next 5 yrs The government received 2 responses

Quick look at some federal construction contracts awarded yesterday: $364M awarded to a NC business for construction services for the Marine Corps Barracks Initiative in Cherry Point, NC $207M to an AL business for construction services for P475 Aircraft Maintenance Hanger in Beaufort, SC $82M to an OH business to construct the Dept. of Agriculture Forage Animal Product Research Unit in Lexington, KY $15M to a TX small business to construct a new water tower in Midwest City, OK $10M to a MD small business for a building renovation in Mansfield, OH $25M max-value IDIQ to a NV business for electrical services at Edwards Air Force Base in CA $14M to a VA business for renovation & repairs and restoration design for a dormitory at Ascension Auxiliary Airfield

Yesterday, a Idaho based firm won a $350M max-value IDIQ to design, supply, install, and support Holistic Health and Fitness buildings, equipment, tech, and services over the next 7 yrs.

More than 1,200 federal contracting primes are HQ'd in California, who collectively won more than $38B in federal contracts since FY23. Some interesting stats on how federal contracts are landing in California: Place of performance hotspots: - LA County (47% of federal contracts in CA) - San Diego (30%) - Orange County (8%) Hottest industries, in terms of federal contract spends in CA: 1) Space, guided missiles 2) Aircraft, aerospace parts 3) Search/ detection/ guidance 4) Semiconductors, electronics

What's interesting about the textile manufacturing federal contracts market is its steady state size. The government awarded ~$5.5B over the past 3 yrs in contracts for cut & sew apparel, apparel accessories, and textile bag and canvas mills capabilities. Not surprisingly, Dept. of War is the major customer, dominating 88% of contract needs but other agencies are active too: GSA, DHS, DOJ. Contracts for textile bag & canvas mills is particularly interesting as the top 5 vendors in this market won 62% of the market share, with the top prime dominating more than 25%.

Last week, a small business in Tennessee was awarded a $46M max-value IDIQ for 36P summer weather and 45P cold weather flyer's jackets for the Army, AF, Navy, and Coast Guard over the next 2 yrs Govt received one response

Dept. of War just announced a $450M investment in The Elmet Group to expand U.S. tungsten processing capacity. Elmet is the only fully integrated, U.S.-owned producer of tungsten and molybdenum materials and components, and its products support more than 100 defense programs. These programs include some of the highest priority military weapons systems: F-35, Patriot PAC-3, Trident D5, Next Generation Interceptor, Precision Strike Missile, and Virginia & Columbia-class submarines. The investment will also establish the only ammonium paratungstate facility in North America, targeteing a processing vulnerability DoW identifies as one of the U.S. industrial base's most significant chokepoints. China currently dominates ~85% of global tungsten supply and ~40% of molybdenum supply. The expansion will create jobs across Coldwater, MI and Lewiston, ME, preserve manufacturing jobs in Euclid, OH, and increase demand for mining employment in Nevada, also expected to support 1,200 downstream jobs across manufacturing, engineering, and logistics.

Really underscores the massive federal facility support services needed in government. 350M s/f of real estate, 8500 properties across all 50 states, 4,400 elevators... Here's a concrete look at the services govt is buying in this space: - Maintenance of office buildings: $1.17B and nearly 5,500 contract awards last year alone - Repair or alteration of office buildings: $1.68B across nearly 5,000 contracts - Maintenance of other admin facilities: $496M across more than 1,800 contracts - Repair or alteration of other admin facilities: $847M across more than 1,500 contracts

Army announced its 10th xTech search today, an open-topic, small business innovation prize competition which exists to Bridge the "valley of death," matching Soldier-identified problems with groundbreaking solutions. Priority topic areas: 1. All Arms Maneuver: Expand combined arms operational reach through endurance and lethality to exploit all-domain maneuver, manned and unmanned (e.g., autonomous breaching, terrain shaping) 2. Command and Control (C2) and Counter-C2 Networks: Survivable communications, mobile multi-domain C2 decision systems, deep-sensing battlefield visibility, electromagnetic/cyberspace advantage, and resilient command posts that deny and disrupt adversary ISR and targeting 3. Formation-Based Layered Protection: Advanced protection, signature management, and concealment capabilities to safeguard dispersed formations across all operational environments (e.g., adaptive camouflage, force protection) 4. Adaptive Sustainment: Rapid inter- and intra-theater strategic lift, expeditionary supply and power distribution, forward maintenance and equipment fabrication, and resilient mass-casualty medical care and Soldier support 5. Cross Domain Fires: Rapid, synchronized deliberate and dynamic joint targeting, multi-domain kinetic and non-kinetic (cyber/EW) effects delivery, persistent air and missile defense against UAS and advanced threats, and resilient control of protected space-domain assets Some numbers on this competition: $1M total cash pool. Up to 50 semifinalists get $5K each for a 3-page white paper. Up to 20 finalists get $20K each plus a shot at eMerge Americas in Miami next March. Up to 3 winners split $200K/$100K/$50K. Finalists and winners also become the only companies eligible for a Phase I Army SBIR/STTR award worth up to $300K each. Eligible: small, for-profit, majority U.S.-owned businesses under 500 employees. White papers due Oct 19, 2026, 5pm ET.

Quick look at government contracts for ammunition. Roughly $30B market over last 3 yrs. Top 5 companies in this field won more than 50% of that $$. Nearly half (46%) sole sourced. Army and Air Force are biggest customers, but many smaller civilian agencies -- VA, federal law enforcement, etc -- also active. Missouri, Florida, and Arizona are where nearly half the work takes place.