The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% away from its all-time high! To put it another way: 1⃣ $SPY is on track to set an all-time high monthly closing price. 2⃣ $QQQ is on track to set an all-time high monthly closing price.

Enjoy the holiday

US consumer confidence remains near historic lows. The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September rose slightly to 48.1 (up from the preliminary reading of 47.8), yet it remains well below the 51.7 recorded in August and the 55.1 seen in September 2021. It is an interesting phenomenon: consumer confidence is weak, while consumption levels continue to rise.

"Yields are skyrocketing; it’s all over." ❗️❓ ☑️ After a 15-year period of abnormally low yields driven by "Zero Interest Rate Policy" (ZIRP) and "Quantitative Easing" (QE), yields have now returned to long-term historical averages. Debts must eventually be paid. The ultra-low interest rates of the past were abnormal. Don't panic!

S&P 500 Index ☑️ U.S. stocks often stall ahead of midterm elections; market unease drives up volatility until the election results become clear and market performance subsequently improves.

Sector Rotation ☑️ Capital shifts between sectors as the economic cycle progresses, driven primarily by changing expectations regarding growth, inflation, and monetary policy. ☑️ The chart above illustrates the relative performance of sectors—such as technology, industrials, utilities, and healthcare—across the stages of early growth, expansion, slowdown, recession, and recovery. It also highlights specific rotation timing, such as shifting from technology to industrials at the peak of expansion, or from industrials to utilities during a slowdown. ☑️ Timing sector rotation is challenging because economic cycles are rarely perfect, and unexpected events can rapidly alter sector leadership. With limited capital, rotation is essential. Which stage are we in now? (Join the group to get the latest information)

Institutions vs. Retail Investors ☑️ Institutional investors purchased $4.1 billion in U.S. stocks during the week ending September 18, 2026—marking their third week of buying in a month—and raised their four-week average purchase volume to $2.9 billion. ☑️ Hedge funds increased their buying by $1.2 billion, whereas retail investors sold $2.2 billion; this marked their eighth consecutive week of net outflows, with a four-week average net outflow of -$1.9 billion. ☑️ Data from BofA Global Research shows an overall net inflow of $3 billion into U.S. stocks, highlighting the contrast between institutional buying and persistent retail selling. Who will end up holding the bag? Did you sell too?

A Thrilling Day ☑️ The market opened with a gap down today, driven by a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields the previous day (with the 10-year yield hitting a new high since 2007), a surge in oil prices—fueled by events such as Houthi attacks—and strong economic data that heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. ☑️ A rebound occurred during midday trading, primarily triggered by a Reuters report stating that U.S. and Iranian negotiators were exploring a phased path to end the conflict. This potential roadmap—which includes Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. lifting economic blockades—helped alleviate concerns regarding geopolitics and oil prices. ☑️ The S&P 500 recovered from its lows to finish nearly flat; the Nasdaq posted a slight gain, while the Dow saw a minor decline. Today's performance demonstrates the market's high sensitivity to diplomatic developments in the Middle East; should these negotiations materialize into concrete action, a new high for the stock market is highly probable.

The White House has released a promotional video. ❗️A historic arrival at the White House. The White House In my view, this meeting was crucial; it eliminated the uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs just before the existing tariff agreement was set to expire. This is positive for the stock market.

This week, bears outnumber bulls... and by a significant margin

An AI Bubble? ☑️ A comparison of semiconductor stock price trends from 2022–2026 with internet stock trends from 1995–2000 reveals nearly identical trajectories around similar milestones (such as the Netscape IPO and the launch of ChatGPT). ☑️ Unlike the leading companies during the dot-com bubble—which generated little to no profit—today’s AI and semiconductor firms are demonstrating robust profit growth. This supports their forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of approximately 20x, with no current signs of extreme overvaluation. ☑️ Therefore, should issues arise within the AI ​​theme, they would likely stem from market saturation caused by massive capital raising and infrastructure spending, rather than a lack of profitability. While individual companies may face challenges, the AI ​​sector is advancing rapidly, keeping pace with the times.