Long-term Musk bull. Tesla and SpaceX. What actually makes them hard to beat. What is noise. What is real. What is already broken.

Being right about Tesla isn’t enough. At $2,000, will you own 10 shares or 100? If $300 never comes back, what makes $400 worth buying? What $2T, $3T, and $8.5T each need.
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Tesla’s Next Valuation Step

If you are a long-term Tesla investor, the real problem is not whether you are right about the future. It is whether you can buy enough shares at a low enough price. This piece is a way to look for

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🚨BREAKING🚨 Slovakia 🇸🇰 just approved FSD (Supervised). Last preperations for an official approval are ongoing and will be completed in a few days!
Slovakia 🇸🇰 will be approving FSD (Supervised) in just a few days! Next confirmed country! Let's go!
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美国FAA提议进一步简化商业火箭审批 FAA提出简化商业火箭发射及再入许可:允许电子提交申请、合并部分安全分析,并给予运营商更灵活的合规证明方式。公开意见征集截至11月4日。这是为SpaceX量身定制吧。 faa.gov/newsroom/liftoff-tru…
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Beyond the Narrative retweeted
Less than 0.001% of Earth's population has ever experienced an autonomous vehicle without pedals and a steering wheel. The future is here but not equally distributed.
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Starship 40 arrives at South Padre island just now! Welcome home after over 2 1/2 months of a long voyage! Image & videos by @pithostettler
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Juniper who? My 2024 Model Y AWD just got the light show. @enhauto Smart RGB strip does blind-spot alerts, speed warnings, sentry glow, and a welcome animation — all live, all custom in the S3XY app. Charging has never looked this S3XY
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Vision-only driving is not just about seeing what’s there. It also has to reason about what has disappeared, what was never visible, and how the world may react to what the car does next.
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Why Is Vision-Only Autonomous Driving So Hard?

We run into situations like this all the time when driving. You’re approaching an intersection. Through a gap between parked cars on the cross street, you catch a glimpse of a cyclist heading toward

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Beyond the Narrative retweeted
FSD Supervised preventing T-bone crash
Thank you Tesla FSD for saving my life. I looked at the car coming to the stop sign figured they would stop, my car went, then came to a stop mid intersection as they flew by. Had I been manually driving this would have resulted in a crash.
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One of the most important capabilities here is prediction. Seeing the other car isn’t enough. FSD has to estimate its speed, direction and likely trajectory, then compare that with its own path and predict where the two could intersect. In a T-bone scenario, a few seconds can make all the difference. The collision doesn’t exist yet. FSD is already braking for where it will exist.
FSD Supervised preventing T-bone crash
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Germany changes the math. With Germany now publicly backing EU-wide approval, the pro-FSD camp effectively reaches 9 countries and roughly a third of the EU population. The 15-country threshold is still some distance away. But the 65% population threshold suddenly looks very different.
🚨 Jetzt ist es offiziell: Das BMV unterstützt die EU-Zulassung von Tesla FSD! In der Stellungnahme von heute steht: ✅ Bilger und Tesla haben sich im September geeinigt ✅ Das System darf das Tempolimit um maximal 10 % überschreiten. Genau das war der größte Streitpunkt! ✅ Der Fahrer bleibt zu 100 % verantwortlich ✅ Deutschland will das im EU-Verfahren jetzt „konstruktiv begleiten“ Und: Tesla hat angeboten, FSD in Europa in „Tesla Assisted Driving“ umzubenennen. 👀 Aus „Bremse“ wird plötzlich „zeitnah europaweit“. Das ist für mich die wichtigste FSD-Nachricht aus Deutschland in diesem Jahr! 💯 Jedoch finde ich es komisch, dass der Name FSD „irreführend“ sein soll. Es steht doch „ Überwacht“, aber mir egal. Hauptsache, wir bekommen FSD!!!! Es ist auch soweit ich weiß die erste Offizielle Stellungnahme! #Tesla #FSD #TCMV #BMV
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Beyond the Narrative retweeted
履行昨天承诺 特斯拉的股价2027年9月前后股价在800-1000元,欢迎明年来验证。 依据就是FSD的订阅率提升20%,订阅用户达到200-250万,Robotaxi的部署量达到10-15万辆。
求转发,求扩展! 转发量达到10个,将对特斯拉股价10倍跃迁来做一次最冒险的推演,也可能是打脸的一次。 x.com/lidayou373514/status/2… 这两篇文章探讨了Robotaxi未来2—5年特斯拉Robotaxi可能触达的美国和国家出租车市场,可能是部署量、市场规模和收入!配合FSD的国际渗透率提升,将把特斯拉市值推上到10万亿的规模!
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Sold Tesla. Bought Micron. Looking back through the rearview mirror today, it was clearly a great trade. The AI infrastructure boom took off. NVIDIA GPUs sold like crazy. Compute demand rippled up the supply chain, and HBM went from a relatively obscure component to a critical bottleneck. SK hynix and Micron became major beneficiaries, and their stocks took off. But seeing that chain today is easy. Seeing it a few years ago was the hard part. You can trace the beginning of this wave back to ChatGPT’s breakout in late 2022. Once that butterfly flapped its wings, you had to see several things ahead of time: generative AI wasn’t a passing fad; it would trigger a multi-year race to build compute; GPUs would become core infrastructure; and as GPU deployment scaled, the next bottleneck would move upstream to HBM. Then you still had to figure out whether Micron would be one of the winners. Looking back today, that chain of events feels almost obvious. But that’s exactly what makes investing difficult: The right answer in the rearview mirror wasn’t necessarily the obvious answer at the time. The valuable part isn’t explaining why Micron has already gone up. It’s seeing the storm three or five years from now, just as the next butterfly starts to flap its wings.
he sold 1000 shares of $TSLA and bought 350 shares of $MU Micron which one outperforms from here over the next year? Tesla at $380 or Micron at $1060? Tesla - $1.5T mc, 150 fwd p/e, +24% EPS growth expected Micron - $1.2T mc, 6 fwd p/e, +105% EPS growth expected
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I’m extremely bullish on SpaceX too. But there’s one assumption here worth separating. Supply capacity is not the same as market demand. Google and Anthropic validate enormous demand for AI compute today. But scaling capacity by an order of magnitude doesn’t automatically mean demand at today’s pricing scales with it. The same applies to space-based compute. It still isn’t ready for large-scale AI training, so near-term demand is more likely to come from inference — a different market, with different customers. SpaceX may build the capacity. The market still has to grow into it.
Every Wall Street analyst report on SpaceX $SPCX understates the company. I have read them in full, and the pattern holds. The further out the forecast, the larger the gap. Projections for 2028 and 2030 diverge most sharply from the figures SpaceX itself has indicated. The reason is straightforward. Space and superintelligence are both domains in which Wall Street still has almost no historical record. Each is a disruptive field advancing at unusual speed. SpaceX is the special case that stacks the two fastest-moving of them. In plain terms, the models cannot price it. And even if an analyst could produce the number, it would be difficult to publish: the result is large enough that most conservative investors would treat the report as unserious.
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Optimus will usher in a golden age of abundance for humanity
Made with AI
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I ran the numbers from a different angle. My middle case assumes each Robotaxi drives 100,000 miles a year, with 30% empty miles and 70,000 paid miles, at an average paid price of $0.80/mile. That gives each car about $56,000 in annual GMV. I assume the third-party fleet operator keeps $32,800 to cover depreciation, electricity, insurance, tires, repairs, cleaning, depots, remote operations, plus a 15% return on the $30,000 vehicle. That leaves about $23,200 per car for Tesla’s software, dispatch and platform. At a 60% mature margin, Tesla earns about $13,920 per Robotaxi. At 30× earnings: 1M Robotaxis → ~$418B 3M → ~$1.25T 5M → ~$2.09T Then add the roughly $686B base-business valuation from my September 19 model. 3M Robotaxis + $686B base businesses ≈ $1.94T 5M Robotaxis + $686B base businesses ≈ $2.78T And I’m holding that $686B flat here. I’m not assuming further growth in auto, energy, FSD, Semi or services just to make the numbers work. That’s why I see roughly 3M Robotaxis as the level where $2T starts to have fundamental support, and 5M as the level where $3T comes into view. These are valuation thresholds, not forecasts. The part where I’m more optimistic is the size of the market itself. If Robotaxi can bring the price down to around $0.60–$0.80 per mile, it won’t be limited to today’s taxi and ride-hailing demand. A lot of trips that are too expensive to put on Uber today become viable. It’s not just taking a bigger slice of the existing pie. Lower prices can make the pie itself much bigger.
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For other countries, an asset-light model probably makes more sense for Tesla. Something like Marriott. Tesla provides the brand, technology and platform. Local partners handle licensing, fleet operations, maintenance and the rest of the local work. Give them a competitive revenue split, and this could scale much faster globally.
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RT @Lidayou373514: 有人说:Robotaxi有100万辆,对特斯拉股价也没有实质影响。 一件事是:这门生意赚不赚钱。 按他们自己的算法,200万辆Cybercab,年订单约1050亿美元,按30%营业利润率算,约310亿美元 。放在任何行业,…
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