I ran the numbers from a different angle.
My middle case assumes each Robotaxi drives 100,000 miles a year, with 30% empty miles and 70,000 paid miles, at an average paid price of $0.80/mile.
That gives each car about $56,000 in annual GMV.
I assume the third-party fleet operator keeps $32,800 to cover depreciation, electricity, insurance, tires, repairs, cleaning, depots, remote operations, plus a 15% return on the $30,000 vehicle.
That leaves about $23,200 per car for Tesla’s software, dispatch and platform.
At a 60% mature margin, Tesla earns about $13,920 per Robotaxi.
At 30× earnings:
1M Robotaxis → ~$418B
3M → ~$1.25T
5M → ~$2.09T
Then add the roughly $686B base-business valuation from my September 19 model.
3M Robotaxis + $686B base businesses ≈ $1.94T
5M Robotaxis + $686B base businesses ≈ $2.78T
And I’m holding that $686B flat here. I’m not assuming further growth in auto, energy, FSD, Semi or services just to make the numbers work.
That’s why I see roughly 3M Robotaxis as the level where $2T starts to have fundamental support, and 5M as the level where $3T comes into view.
These are valuation thresholds, not forecasts.
The part where I’m more optimistic is the size of the market itself.
If Robotaxi can bring the price down to around $0.60–$0.80 per mile, it won’t be limited to today’s taxi and ride-hailing demand.
A lot of trips that are too expensive to put on Uber today become viable.
It’s not just taking a bigger slice of the existing pie. Lower prices can make the pie itself much bigger.