> Why 2023-2025 bull market failed
// The crypto market of recent years has broken many people. People went in looking for the “alpha,” but ended up with BTC, which simply and quietly outperformed everything else. The rest is a quagmire of poor performance and endless “it’s about to take off” hype. And here it’s important to understand one unpleasant truth: this isn’t a coincidence. It’s by design.
The story begins with FTX. Not even with the collapse itself, but with what came after. When the liquidators arrived, their mission wasn’t to “preserve the market.” Their mission was to sell everything. At any cost, in any form. Including massive amounts of locked SOL. And here’s where it gets interesting. They essentially invented a new transaction format: you pay now, receive tokens later. Legally, the on-chain lock-up remains, but economically, the asset has already been sold. The discount? 60%+. Sometimes more. Because you’re taking on the risk of time and price.
// Who buys this? Not retail investors. Hedge funds. And now comes the most important part. The fund buys SOL at a massive discount, immediately opens a short position on futures, locks in the price, adds staking, and adds the basis. The result is an almost risk-free structure with a 70–80% return. No “belief in the project.” No “community.” Just financial engineering. Naturally, they liked it. And they asked the logical question: where else can you do this?
Answer: Everywhere. Virtually every project has early investors, funds, and foundations—and huge token allocations that are “locked up.” On paper. But in reality? They’ve already been sold. Sold to those same funds. At a discount. With the same hedge via derivatives.
// And what happens next? You buy a token on the spot market, thinking that “the lock-up will protect against pressure.” But the pressure is already here. It just comes through short positions on futures. Your “alpha” at that moment turns into someone else’s arbitrage.
That is exactly why the 2023–2025 market looked so weak. Not because “there’s no narrative.” Not because “there’s not enough money.” But because a significant portion of the upside has already been bought out and hedged by professional players. You weren’t just outplayed. You were structurally put in a position where it’s hard to win.
// There is, by the way, some irony here. Many of these “future unlock events” that everyone fears have, in essence, already been realized. The tokens have changed hands. The risk has been redistributed. That is, in the next cycle, some of this pressure may simply not materialize. But that doesn’t make the game fair.
Crypto increasingly resembles a casino. Where you don’t know the rules. But those sitting at the table on both sides do—both as market makers and as players. In 2023–2025, the “house” had the advantage over those who understood this trade. Everyone else simply provided them with returns.
// The conclusion is unpleasant but simple: if you don’t have access to such structures, you’re playing a losing game. The most boring option turns out to be the most effective one again. BTC. No illusions. No Xs. Just don’t participate in someone else’s scheme.